J-35A fighter (PLAAF) + FC-31 thread

[AndrewS]

Power projection far from China's homeland will actually be conducted primarily by the naval J-35, which is naturally at risk if the characteristics of the J-35AE are leaked and the differences between the models isn't made sufficiently significant.

I'm not referring to power projection that far from mainland China.

In a high-intensity conflict, it just isn't credible for Chinese aircraft carriers (with J-35s) to operate past the Second Island Chain for at least the next 5 years. There just aren't enough carriers.

The J-20 is kept close to the chest because its for China's greatest struggle, that being reunification. Beyond that, I can't see much use for the J-20 just like the F-22 has greatly reduced relevance in the same hypothetical conflict due to its short legs and inability to be launched from aircraft carriers. For the J-20 to actually be used for any conflict other than over Taiwan and SCS (and maybe Japan and the Philippines), it would need to be stationed in military bases on foreign soil, which I doubt China will do from a strategic standpoint (its global power projection strategy is likely to be carrier-heavy and light on bases).

Power projection to the First Island Chain (all of Japan is within 1300km of the Chinese mainland) can be conducted with land-based J-20s, which have a stated combat range of 2000km.

By 2030, we can expect a thousand J-20s to have been built and I expect a lot more airborne tankers to be in service as well.

Furthermore, the J-35A is literally being procured by the PLAAF to bulk-up its stealth fighter fleet. Given its late entry onto the scene its numbers might not eclipse or even exceed that of the J-20/A, but we should expect at least a significant chunk of the fleet (>33%) to be J-35As. That's a huge number of airframes at risk of having their key characteristics known (to some close degree of accuracy) by hostile forces.

The only "out" that I can see is if China's unique 6th-gens are expected to be inducted far sooner than thought. The sensitivity around the J-35AE (downgraded from the J-35A and in turn from the J-35) would indeed be greatly reduced if next-gen J-36 and naval J-50s are flying.

If the PLAAF is going to credibly intercept stealth fighters flying near China's coastline in peacetime, then the PLAAF will have to send up a stealth fighter, which means a J-20, J-20A or J-35A.

It would be better for the characteristics of the J-35A to be revealed, given that the J-35A would be tasked with nearby missions where China should easily be able to achieve air superiority.

 

[Aval]

I think your "out" is likely to end up being the case. India isn't likely to have 5th gen anytime soon, and so there is no rush on getting those to Pakistan. As such, the question of exporting it can probably wait until Chinese 6th gen become the mainstay.

I agree. But that would push the expected export date of the J-35AE out to at least 2035 (which is when we might be able to expect FOC and mass-production for J-36 and at least land-based J-50). A lot can change in 10 years, so if that's the PLA's plan, I'm concerned if the strategic need to export to J-35AE reaches undeniable levels before the 6th-gens can come online.

The key strategic question with the J-35A is Pakistan vs India, so actually we should be seeing signs of China favouring de-escalation and not pushing India towards acquiring any 5th-gens for the next decade. I'm not sure if China's geopolitical actions of late have necessarily shown that path, given the lack of resolute rejection of those wild rumours about Pakistan getting J-35AEs soon. But maybe they were waiting for the Pakistani military to itself reject those claims, which they seemed to have just done.

And then there's also that uncertain tidbit about the J-35AE development being fast-tracked after a huge investment by a thus far unnamed Middle Eastern nation (likely UAE from last I heard). If that funding is real, there's probably no way to avoid finishing the J-35AE early and exporting it, and it would certainly be done within 10 years (lest there be major embarrassment for SAC and damage to trust in Chinese military business).

Of course, the PLA could always hedge its bets, downgrading the J-35AE sufficiently such that a few years gap (max 5 maybe) between it and 6th-gen IOC is acceptable, rather than needing to wait for the perfect scenario.

 

[CMP]

I agree. But that would push the expected export date of the J-35AE out to at least 2035 (which is when we might be able to expect FOC and mass-production for J-36 and at least land-based J-50). A lot can change in 10 years, so if that's the PLA's plan, I'm concerned if the strategic need to export to J-35AE reaches undeniable levels before the 6th-gens can come online.

The key strategic question with the J-35A is Pakistan vs India, so actually we should be seeing signs of China favouring de-escalation and not pushing India towards acquiring any 5th-gens for the next decade. I'm not sure if China's geopolitical actions of late have necessarily shown that path, given the lack of resolute rejection of those wild rumours about Pakistan getting J-35AEs soon. But maybe they were waiting for the Pakistani military to itself reject those claims, which they seemed to have just done.

And then there's also that uncertain tidbit about the J-35AE development being fast-tracked after a huge investment by a thus far unnamed Middle Eastern nation (likely UAE from last I heard). If that funding is real, there's probably no way to avoid finishing the J-35AE early and exporting it, and it would certainly be done within 10 years (lest there be major embarrassment for SAC and damage to trust in Chinese military business).

Of course, the PLA could always hedge its bets, downgrading the J-35AE sufficiently such that a few years gap (max 5 maybe) between it and 6th-gen IOC is acceptable, rather than needing to wait for the perfect scenario.

I believe the rumor about UAE funding acceleration of J-35AE since they cannot get their hands on F-35 with acceptable terms. A "within 10 years" time frame is probably acceptable. I suspect Pakistan may end up receiving them in a 10 year time frame as well. As much as some of us might not like it, China is naturally going to have to provide more military value to countries that take significant steps in advancing Chinese national interests.

 

[neutralobserver]

Think Pakistan will get it within 5 years assuming we're able to arrange funding and China doesn't have an immediate threat (in which case everything would be prioritized for Chinese Armed Forces i assume). I think 10 years timeline would have been realistic but Modi/India has shown its tendency to use military for short term conflicts including his latest policy of initiating a conflict with Pakistan if there is a terror attack anywhere in India. They are on the path to escalation now so we would need strong firepower to deter them.It's an existential threat at this point because such a short term conflict brings massive damage to Pakistan's economy (India has large strategic depth so they just close airspace near borders areas) due to complete air space closure and business disruption . I would trust PAF Chief statements over Defense Minister since he is just a loud mouth politician and knowing Pakistani internal politics, he probably is not aware of actual developments lol. I just don't see PAF waiting 10 years for 5th generation considering the threats they are facing.

 

[ENTED64]

I considered that, but RAM coatings don't make up the majority of stealth effect IIRC. But it really depends on the magnitude.

It's hard to say as all the actual numbers are classified but I think given advances in materials science in more recent years this is becoming less true. This is only on the level of hearsay/rumors but I believe like back in the 2000s or 1990s the majority of stealth effect was shaping but there are more comments now that since 2010s RAM is increasingly becoming the main player. Still it's hard to really prove any of this.

 

[HighGround]

I think your "out" is likely to end up being the case. India isn't likely to have 5th gen anytime soon, and so there is no rush on getting those to Pakistan. As such, the question of exporting it can probably wait until Chinese 6th gen become the mainstay.

This assumes that Pakistan is only interested in maintaining parity with the IAF, and most militaries are far more interested in achieving dominance and superiority.

 

[pokepara]

I wonder how necessary it is to export J-35 anyway. Assuming China's allies are mostly attempting to defend themselves, isn't AWACS, surveillance drones or AD more important? Assuming you're not going into enemy air space, Is the difference between J-35 and J-10 so great?

 

[Nevermore]

I wonder how necessary it is to export J-35 anyway. Assuming China's allies are mostly attempting to defend themselves, isn't AWACS, surveillance drones or AD more important? Assuming you're not going into enemy air space, Is the difference between J-35 and J-10 so great?

If the J-10C encounters a Rafale squadron with an advanced and complete air combat system, it is likely to only be able to strike a draw. The J-35 can form a crushing advantage over Rafale fighter jets in aerial combat and effectively counter fifth generation fighter jets, as well as more advanced integrated air defense systems.And from the previously deleted tweets, it can also be seen that the Pakistani military also values the early warning aircraft system.

 

[gelgoog]

The US exports the F-35 so China should export the J-35. As simple as that.
Just degrading the software and RAM coatings could be enough.

 

[Phead128]

You mean exporting the FC-31. The name 'J-35AE' is likely just a marketing term designed to suggest a link to the future PLAAF variant, even though it isn't the same aircraft. In reality, the export model is still the FC-31, which a original (downgraded) version of the domestic design, simply rebranded as the J-35AE to make it seem more closely related to the eventual Chinese military version.