J-20... The New Generation Fighter

Re: New Generation Fighter

70092 said:

Your reasoning has some merits, but you have to keep this in mind, percentage-wise, the US's military spending at the moment is already return to near its cold-war, arm-racing level, so there is not much more room for improvement for them anyway, I think the two unnecessary wars (iraqi and afghanistan) really hurt them badly, and save us alot of time to catch up them.

In contrast, China's economy grow at a much higher rate and their military spending, percentage-wise, is barely higher than that of Japan, and far less than even the world-average, so there is alot of more room for improvement.

As for the fighter beyond 5th generation, as I have already posted before, I think the gap would have been much narrower since they have been investing huge money in that area since a very long time ago, probably not much later than that of the US.

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You're right, but I do hope China will not reach that level of military spending for a long time. Although it's true that more capital generally produces more outputs (economically speaking), but I hope instead China can focus on maximizing efficiency and decreasing wastes as well. Military industry is one of those really big resource-eating inefficient machines. If you look at the US military, I think the military industrial complex is partially to blame for the debt the US is having. Look at Nazi Germany, USSR and modern Russia, and we'll see that those military expenditures bankrupted the nation. And it's simple science: overgrowth of an organ can be cancerous. And I think what goes on in US is quite a warning sign as well. The military growth is too much compared to its civilian sectors and the world's standards, especially by weighing the necessities to upkeep 16+ supercarriers

Lastly, a budget of $600 billion can be used better in other areas than here won't we agree? How much people can you feed with $600billion? Or to improve education, health care, infrastructures, pensions, environmental projects, exploring medical frontiers? Or develop rural areas, public transportation, access to food and drinking water, and energy? And to reduce pollution?

Re: New Generation Fighter

Mcsweeney said:

I think he was talking about the PRC vs Taiwan, not PRC vs the US.

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Yea, pretty sure that's what he was talking about.

Re: New Generation Fighter

The problem is if the Chinese were to develop her own indigenous 5th generation fighters the U.S. will be willing to sell advanced fighters like the F-35 to Japan and Taiwan. Until the Chinese can achieve technological parity with the West she couldn't achieve absolute aerial supremacy over her neighbors.

Re: New Generation Fighter

Mcsweeney said:

I think he was talking about the PRC vs Taiwan, not PRC vs the US.

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No, I think he was talking about China vs. the US/West. Since he mentioned "the US and other Western nations" and the only nation that is exporting to Taiwan in significant amount is the US, he didn't have to bring up "other Western nations" if he's talking about Taiwan. Plus, I don't think anyone is talking about F-22's with Taiwan since they can't seem to even get F-16's. So he's definitely talking about China vs. the West.

About China's supposed technological superiority against Taiwan, I honestly don't think the West, namely the US, will try to arm Taiwan in a way to match what China has. Politically, this is nearly impossible. The dependence between the US and China will only increase. That means what China wants and what the US wants will be tangled up together and the US cannot simply give what Taiwan needs to match China's technology amid China's opposition. A good example would be the F-16 case that we are looking at now.

Also, increasingly sophisticated technology means increased spending to acquire them. The US won't give any of its weapons to Taiwan for free. Taiwan WILL have to buy them. Matching what China has and will have in the future means pushing Taiwan into an arms race with China. Well, we all know how that will end when comparing the size of China's economy with that of Taiwan's.

So the US won't do it and Taiwan won't do it. So in other words, China WILL have its technological superiority over Taiwan soon if it has not already.

Additionally, I don't think that the goal of Taiwan's defense is to match China's technology because a technological superiority won't get Taiwan anywhere. Even without a technological superiority, China will simply use its shear numerical superiority. So even with a slightly inferior weapons (let's face it, China will never again allow such huge technological gap between itself and its adversary that it experience in the most part of the 20th century), a numerical advantage will go a long way. So spending so much to acquire that technological superiority won't give Taiwan too much of an advantage in an actual fight. IMHO, what Taiwan aims to have is enough defense to prolong the length of China's offense so that the US can come to help. I don't think anyone in Taiwan has the illusion that Taiwan alone can fight China. Nearly everyone on the island is counting on outside help. And the goal of the defense is to make the fight as long as possible to give the helper enough time to come to help. So they don't need to match what China has. As long as they have enough to make China believe that any attack may last more than a week, that would be enough to deter any actual attack, which is Taiwan's goal, IMHO.

Re: New Generation Fighter

US sales of 5th generation aircraft to China's neighbors is a question of when not if. So it doesn't really matter what China does. So if there were an arms race, China would probably win out because China will be producing their own aircraft. So the war most likely will be won without firing a shot. Just look at it this way. The US flies surveillance planes based in Japan along the coast of China... The Impeccable can sit off-shore of Hainan Island because it's in international waters... And Japan is angered over Chinese navy ships passing in international waters by their island? They all complain that China dares to send navy vessels into the deep Pacific? Since when does it say in international law they own the Pacific and whatever ocean China sails in? Japan has been naggiing the US to sell them F-22s long before any real official talk of China acknowledging the J-XX program. Do you really think beyond simply the crime of existing, they need any "provocation" from China to get this or that? And at the ever rising end cost of both the F-22 and F-35, if China does introduce the J-XX into the military, can Japan or South Korea or whoever really pay the price to keep up with Chinese production. The reason why much of the fear over trade today with China is because China is getting into the higher-end technology that the West can't beat in production costs. If it were that easy for them then they should beat China in the simplier field of green technology costs. Yeah maybe some of the 5th generation technology will be more expensive for China but will it be more than the end price for what the Japanese or South Koreans have to pay to the US to get it? And I don't know why there's this talk that China has to equal or surpass US technology. All China really needs is to get into the ball-park. Plus it will be easier for China to concentrate on assymetrical technologies to by-pass more advanced technologies others may possess. They have the edge on superior technology for generations to come. Why all the worry when that superior technology will do everything it was made for?

Re: New Generation Fighter

vesicles said:

No, I think he was talking about China vs. the US/West. Since he mentioned "the US and other Western nations" and the only nation that is exporting to Taiwan in significant amount is the US, he didn't have to bring up "other Western nations" if he's talking about Taiwan. Plus, I don't think anyone is talking about F-22's with Taiwan since they can't seem to even get F-16's. So he's definitely talking about China vs. the West.

About China's supposed technological superiority against Taiwan, I honestly don't think the West, namely the US, will try to arm Taiwan in a way to match what China has. Politically, this is nearly impossible. The dependence between the US and China will only increase. That means what China wants and what the US wants will be tangled up together and the US cannot simply give what Taiwan needs to match China's technology amid China's opposition. A good example would be the F-16 case that we are looking at now.

Also, increasingly sophisticated technology means increased spending to acquire them. The US won't give any of its weapons to Taiwan for free. Taiwan WILL have to buy them. Matching what China has and will have in the future means pushing Taiwan into an arms race with China. Well, we all know how that will end when comparing the size of China's economy with that of Taiwan's.

So the US won't do it and Taiwan won't do it. So in other words, China WILL have its technological superiority over Taiwan soon if it has not already.

Additionally, I don't think that the goal of Taiwan's defense is to match China's technology because a technological superiority won't get Taiwan anywhere. Even without a technological superiority, China will simply use its shear numerical superiority. So even with a slightly inferior weapons (let's face it, China will never again allow such huge technological gap between itself and its adversary that it experience in the most part of the 20th century), a numerical advantage will go a long way. So spending so much to acquire that technological superiority won't give Taiwan too much of an advantage in an actual fight. IMHO, what Taiwan aims to have is enough defense to prolong the length of China's offense so that the US can come to help. I don't think anyone in Taiwan has the illusion that Taiwan alone can fight China. Nearly everyone on the island is counting on outside help. And the goal of the defense is to make the fight as long as possible to give the helper enough time to come to help. So they don't need to match what China has. As long as they have enough to make China believe that any attack may last more than a week, that would be enough to deter any actual attack, which is Taiwan's goal, IMHO.

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can china even able to send tens thousands troop accroos the strait on to taiwan beach at all?

Re: New Generation Fighter

s002wjh said:

can china even able to send tens thousands troop accroos the strait on to taiwan beach at all?

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I think the max capability of the PLAAN for an amphibious landing right now is 32,000 people. This will dramatically improve as the PLAAN becomes a true blue water navy. I personally don't think that the Taiwan issue should be solved militarily, however.

Re: New Generation Fighter

s002wjh said:

can china even able to send tens thousands troop accroos the strait on to taiwan beach at all?

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I wasn't talking about a "human wave" attack and certainly was NOT talking about an amphibious attack. I was more implying a numerical superiority of equipment/weapons. Assuming Taiwan holds a killing ratio of 2:1 over PLA in the air when and IF (note, that is a BIG IF) Taiwan gets something superior in technology than China's, eventually PLA will be able to wear Taiwan out with more fighters sent to the fight. But the bottom line is that I honestly don't believe Taiwan will be able to match the technology of China's simply because China's economy is much bigger and is able to invest more and thus can afford these new and fancy toys.

Especially, China is increasingly more able to develop its own technology while Taiwan depends on others. this means Taiwan will have to pay premium for Western technology, which is never cheap to begin with, while China's military pays "discounted" (so to speak) price on a technology at a cost that is already low to begin with. There is simply no way that Taiwan can keep up. Simply look at how Taiwan wants to, but fail to keep up with China's military development in the past 2-3 decades.

And I also don't believe the Taiwan issue should be solved militarily. IMO, Chinese govn't is using the military to keep Taiwan in line and close enough so that they can use their "soft power".

Re: New Generation Fighter

The thing is even if China could take Taiwan militarily it will hardly be a victory for China. Many Chinese people (Taiwanese people are Chinese) will die as a result of the conflict and much of Taiwan's infrastructure will be destroyed in the firstwave attack.

Anyways I digress. Time to get back to topic.

Re: New Generation Fighter

siegecrossbow said:

The thing is even if China could take Taiwan militarily it will hardly be a victory for China. Many Chinese people (Taiwanese people are Chinese) will die as a result of the conflict and much of Taiwan's infrastructure will be destroyed in the firstwave attack.

Anyways I digress. Time to get back to topic.

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I was agreeing with your points. I too believe the Taiwan issue should be solved peacefully.