Re: New Generation Fighter
its not us that are thinkin, its the leadership of the PLA. what other possible "imagined enemy" do you expect them to model after?
Yes! I believe anyone in the PLA with just slightest ambition would see the US as THE target. Not necessarily a concrete military target, but more like where they want to be and whom they want to match up to in the near future.
but trying to develop a whole new fighter that would come out to be far inferior from f-22 even now (let alone going in service 10 years later) is not something PLAAF would accept, unless there is such an insurmountable technological gap that they HAVE to get the 3.5 gen done away with before going on to 4th gen...otherwise even if it would take a lil bit longer, i think PLAAF would want that 4th gen as soon as possible.
Again, good point! China now sees itself as a future superpower, and so do many other nations in the world. Its leadership would certainly not tolerate anything that would negatively influence this image. And coming up with only a 3.5 gen fighter by 2020 and proudly announcing such inferior design to the public would certainly make them look too "conservative" (to say it nicely), or not-being-able-to-measure-up/can only talk the talk, but can't walk the walk (something like what NK is doing). That would be a huge loss of face. We all know how important the face is to a Chinese. And this is only the emotional motivation for the 4th gen fighter.
Strategically, it is also crucial for China to have the 4th gen fighter. Not so much about the direct confrontation with the US. We know that both nations will do whatever they can to avoid it. But being among the most advanced AFs in the world will undoubtedly serve China tremendously and lend major credibility to China. This would be a crucial element in the "hard approach" in the Hard/soft combination approach of China's foreign policy.
I think there are two main things we need to consider: militarily what is actually needed and strategically what is best to have. I honestly don't think China will be in any major conflict in the near future, thus having a 3.5 gen fighter should be sufficient. However, strategically having only a 3.5 gen would be a BAD move because of the things I listed above. Please bare in mind that China is trying to catch up with the US. Focusing on only a 3.5 gen means that China will be even more behind the US in 2020. By then, the US would've had F-22 for 3 decades and will most likely come up with a 6th gen fighter design. Yet, China is only beginning to deploy a 3.5/4.5 gen. that will be almost TWO generations behind. And China NOW is only about one generation behind... That's not what someone who is trying to catch up should be doing. When you play catch-up, you want to speed up as soon as possible and try as hard as possible. Even with the current pace, China will still be falling behind. This means that China should aim for the 4th/5th gen NOW and get it out ASAP.
I actually think that the Chinese are actually aiming to surpass the F-22 at least in some aspects. This is what you should do when you try to catch up with someone.
