J-20... The New Generation Fighter

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rhino123

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Re: New Generation Fighter

Could it be that the Chinese are facing with quite a lot of technical challenges that they might not be able to successfully solve at present moment or near future that they fall back on the more proven design such as J-10 and instead of coming out with something totally new, they are looking at evolution of the basic J-10, improve it and give it more teeth. This is more or less a stop-gap tactics till the real stealth fighter came along.

Also it will provide the aviation industry with more experience and skills in doing evolution of old design until they are confident enough to embark on the more ambitious stealth design.
 

Blitzo

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Re: New Generation Fighter

Could it be that the Chinese are facing with quite a lot of technical challenges that they might not be able to successfully solve at present moment or near future that they fall back on the more proven design such as J-10 and instead of coming out with something totally new, they are looking at evolution of the basic J-10, improve it and give it more teeth. This is more or less a stop-gap tactics till the real stealth fighter came along.

Also it will provide the aviation industry with more experience and skills in doing evolution of old design until they are confident enough to embark on the more ambitious stealth design.
.... Or more likely perhaps is that the article is shown to play down China's future capabilities so that adversaries won't have solid evidence to get more or better advanced fighters? (F-22 production starting again comes to mind - We know that probably isn't going to happen, but for the PLAAF being cautious wouldn't hurt I think)

We heard too many details about the 4th gen fighter from the PLAAF general (match F-22 as close as possible, "4 S" capability), to suddenly have it all changed by one unreliable article I think.
 

rhino123

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Re: New Generation Fighter

Actually I think the J-10 approach is more sensible at present moment. First it is cheaper, faster and easier to achieve, there is no need to throw in heaps of money to create something totally new (no matter how effective it is), the unit price for each is going to be hell, and it would not really be effective if you only have money for a couple of this new weapons.

Unlike US, who is still playing policemen and will be playing global policemen in near future, China didn't have (at least they appear so) that ambition and so the nearest adversaries nearby is those from India, South Korea, Japan, Russia and Taiwan, and they do not really need a superplane against these nation's airforces, so by just evoluting existing aircraft to a higher standard would be enough at present moment.

I am not saying that China should or would give up the stealth project, but perhaps when the technologies are more mature, they will embark into this project with more confident.

Please note that China uptill relatively recently, then they could independently design and built modern fighters, all other samples are either basing on or direct copies with minor improvement to Russia design. Thus if I was to look at it, China might not have enough confident, industrial support and capability to embark into something as ambition as the F-22 design, no doubt they tried to do it before and is still trying at present moment.

(PS, I am not looking down or dismissing China's aviation industry, just pointing out my opinion.)
 

Blitzo

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Re: New Generation Fighter

Actually I think the J-10 approach is more sensible at present moment. First it is cheaper, faster and easier to achieve, there is no need to throw in heaps of money to create something totally new (no matter how effective it is), the unit price for each is going to be hell, and it would not really be effective if you only have money for a couple of this new weapons.

Unlike US, who is still playing policemen and will be playing global policemen in near future, China didn't have (at least they appear so) that ambition and so the nearest adversaries nearby is those from India, South Korea, Japan, Russia and Taiwan, and they do not really need a superplane against these nation's airforces, so by just evoluting existing aircraft to a higher standard would be enough at present moment.

I am not saying that China should or would give up the stealth project, but perhaps when the technologies are more mature, they will embark into this project with more confident.

Please note that China uptill relatively recently, then they could independently design and built modern fighters, all other samples are either basing on or direct copies with minor improvement to Russia design. Thus if I was to look at it, China might not have enough confident, industrial support and capability to embark into something as ambition as the F-22 design, no doubt they tried to do it before and is still trying at present moment.

(PS, I am not looking down or dismissing China's aviation industry, just pointing out my opinion.)
I do agree with what you say to an extent, but I think that the J-10B should be enough to fill the roles of a 4th/3rd + generation fighter to be used against China's neighbours in the near future instead of needing another new J-10 variant.
 

rhino123

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Re: New Generation Fighter

I do agree with what you say to an extent, but I think that the J-10B should be enough to fill the roles of a 4th/3rd + generation fighter to be used against China's neighbours in the near future instead of needing another new J-10 variant.

What you say make sense. However I believe that since China didn't have any experience with stealth technology, maybe they are taking a more conventional way to achieve that capability, first by upgrading proven airframe and powerplant (in this case J-10) to achieve partial stealth capability. I believe that they would even try create new variants for most of their older fighter type (J-8D, JH-7A, etc) to achieve partial or full stealth and once they found that their technology in stealth had reach maturity, then they will embark on a totally new design of perhaps F-22 capability.

This way, they will not waste a whole lot of money on something that they have no confidence in.
 
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Blitzo

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Re: New Generation Fighter

What you say make sense. However I believe that since China didn't have any experience with stealth technology, maybe they are taking a more conventional way to achieve that capability, first by upgrading proven airframe and powerplant (in this case J-10) to achieve partial stealth capability. I believe that they would even try create new variants for most of their older fighter type (J-8D, JH-7A, etc) to achieve partial or full stealth and once they found that their technology in stealth had reach maturity, then they will embark on a totally new design of perhaps F-22 capability.

This way, they will not waste a whole lot of money on something that they have no confidence in.
I agree with building semi stealth planes to an extent, but if you do semi stealth to too many planes you'll end up with relatively good planes which are however useless against real 5th gens.

The question is whether the PLAAF believes it needs a 5th gen fighter able to take on the F-22 (it needs air superiority pretty badly in any taiwan scenario involving US and raptors), and whether it has the confidence to build one. With the video interview with the PLAAF general dude being quite confident, I myself think that confidence right now isn't that much of an issue.
 

tphuang

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Re: New Generation Fighter

You can't upgrade J-10 into a semi-stealth fighter. What do you call semi-stealth? Rafale? Rhino? The real stealth fighter are so much harder to detect. You simply can't compete with an upgraded J-10. Mind you, there probably will be numerous variants after J-10B, but China will also be developing 4th gen at the same time. I read plenty of articles online, we know CAC is working on both upgrades to J-10 and also the main contractor for the 4th gen project. They are separate projects.
 

twodollarss

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Re: New Generation Fighter

I don't know why China cannot build a plane similar to F-22. Is China's college not as compete like the ones MIT, Harvard etc.. There got to be some smart students who could figure it out.
 

pla101prc

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Re: New Generation Fighter

I don't know why China cannot build a plane similar to F-22. Is China's college not as compete like the ones MIT, Harvard etc.. There got to be some smart students who could figure it out.

wow, the most noob question i've seen in a while even compare to me. you need an industrial base...its easy to design that stuff (relatively), making them is a whole different issue. do you think the brightest engineers would be able to build a f-22 in kenya?
 

kroko

Senior Member
Re: New Generation Fighter

it needs air superiority pretty badly in any taiwan scenario involving US and raptors

china wont have air superiority in taiwan if USA decides to intervine, with f-22 or not.

With the video interview with the PLAAF general dude being quite confident, I myself think that confidence right now isn't that much of an issue.

Are you judging china´s confidence based on a staged interview?
 
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