J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

stannislas said:

I completely agree with what you said, in fact, I think after a certain point it's impossible to trace and count how many jets PLAAF has given their information disclosure policy.

BUT, at this moment, we still could estimate a number. We know Wuhu is the first frontline troop with J-20 from CCTV if my memory is correct. that means before other places got J-20, the total number of J-20 is known, which is 20. It's also confirmed by all those serials photographed.

Later we heard from "multiple" sources claim that "Fushun"? in NTC will be the 2nd to have J-20, but until now we still haven't seen any pictures of flying J-20 around that place, given how dense Chinese cities are and how close Fushun base to the surrounding cities, as such a high profile jet, it's very difficult to hide J-20 like this.

Moreover, we have some secondary evidence suggested that the four J-20 with WS-10B in yellow primer at CAC witness in Nov 2019 was still at CAC (at least around April for these newly released pictures).

Combine all these, we could logically estimate the number, but again, deep down, I seriously hope I'm wrong, for example instead of Fushun, the 2nd place to have J-20 is somewhere else.

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Bltizo said:

The problem is that your estimate is literally the "floor" estimate based on the number of airframes we've identified and projected based off serials.

We have 8 serials identified at Dingxin and 4 serials identified at Cangzhou, and 6 serials identified at Wuhu (including up to the 9th aircraft at Wuhu), meaning it's reasonable to assume that the floor estimate of in service aircraft is 8 + 4 + 9 = 21 aircraft.

The problem is we don't know what the true number of J-20s at Dingxin, Cangzhou and Wuhu is, which is why the number of aircraft we are estimating based off serials is a definitive minimum floor, rather than an estimate of the actual number.

If you are suggesting that the serial numbers we have identified are all of the true number of airframes, I would find that to be very surprising.


In fact, as far as the 60 number that pupu states are concerned, that is about where my estimate for what the likely true number of J-20 airframes would have been, using the rule of thumb that the real number of airframes is 2.5-3 times the number of confirmed serials for new aircraft types early in their introduction.

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stannislas said:

True, I agree is definitely the minimum number, but it's hard to find more atm.

Given the base number for PLAAF, the unit is 4 jets and a squadron is 8 (12 for PLAN I think), so 62004 is definitely missing (but given the last number is 4, the chance is it won't be). so unless there is another squadron equipped J-20, there won't be any. And we know the squadron name at wuhu with J-20, "Wanghai squadron" (王海大队), was is also the name mentioned in CCTV as the first to equipped J-20.

In terms of Dingxin and Cangzhou, I don't know, but as the Test and Training Bases, I would be surprised for them to equip more than 1 squadron before any of those "frontline troop" equipped J-20 at this moment.

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ougoah said:

This insistence that the three known station sites could only be where J-20s are positioned is confusing to me. J-20 numbers could be anything from 20 to whatever a realistic limit is.

Some Chinese sources insist the whole serial numbers system that can be photographed is also deceptive and intentionally so. They know western spies and agencies do track the serials. How they exploit and bother playing with this is up to your imagination. In any case it's probably a shitty way (albeit the best lol) of counting. At best it's a clear minimum. Not all serials are photographed and there's no rule saying the same number isn't actually on different fighters. The minimum number of J-20s is probably around the 20s now. The absolute minimum. This is the only thing closest to a "known" we've got.

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ougoah said:

Then you would agree this is no means of refuting claims there are 60 or x J-20s around where x>20.

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stannislas said:

Did the Chinese ever did that before??? I heard stories about Soviet, but never Chinese. the most recent close story was PLANAF changing the serial, but that's changing serial, not hidden number...

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stannislas said:

No, what I'm saying is mid of last year CCTV said “王海大队 wanghai squadron” is first to equip J-20 which makes the total number very close to 20 at that particular moment.

Than given J-20 produced around 20 to 24+ between 2017 to 2019 (Nov), it's hard for me to imagine another 36 could be produced in just 1 year, if that's the case we will see full of J-20 parking in CAC fields...

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Bltizo said:

I don't think we have any evidence of the PLAAF using the same serial number on different aircraft, but it is well accepted that photographers do not take pictures of all of the serials available.




We do not know how many J-20s there are at Dingxin, or Cangzhou or Wuhu at any point in time over the past few years, and we definitely don't know how many J-20s the PLA had in late 2019.

That's the problem. We have the number of serials that have been photographed but we don't know what the number of serials are present that have not been photographed.

E.g.: we have eight serials at Dingxin photographed, and four serials at Cangzhou photographed -- however does that mean there are only eight J-20s at Dingxin and only four J-20s at Cangzhou?
For Wuhu, we have serials up to 62009 -- does that mean there are only nine J-20s at Wuhu?

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1. PLAAF squadron is 8 jets, let's just give a 9, the number won't be off far
2. CCTV mentioned the "First squadron to equip J-20 is Wanghai squadron" which is at Wuhu, so 8, and since you said 62009 is there, let's just say 9 j-20, although I seriously doubt the existence of 62004...
3. there could be more J-20 in dingxin and cangzhou, in fact, I found it's weird to have only 4 at dingxin, the reason been that at this moment (ok that moment, when wanghai squadron just first got j-20), since there no point to having more j-20 at "Testing and Training base", because being a base unit, you don't need more number to practice any tactics and mission, and you could also have more when there are more J-20s equipped at the "frontline troops". That gives 8+4=12, ok, then we add another 4 to dingxin = 16, this makes a total 24-25 in mid of 2019.
4. July? 2019 to August 2020, 12 months, around 40-36 J-20 production, even ignoring the pandemic rumor of only 4 j-20 produced between Jan to April 2020, that's still 3~5 jets per month, even F-35 took around 1-2 years ramped from about 1 jet per month (maybe the J-20 production rate before sometime 2019) to 3 per month...
5. Honestly, I could see J-20 produce around 3 per month from let's say May (when Covid-19 roughly end in China) to May 2021, but I find it really hard to believe there are 60 J-20s already.

stannislas said:

As I said, I agree it's almost impossible to get the real number unless they released, but again as I keep repeating myself, you can have a logical estimation over the number

1. PLAAF squadron is 8 jets, let's just give a 9, the number won't be off far
2. CCTV mentioned the "First squadron to equip J-20 is Wanghai squadron" which is at Wuhu, so 8, and since you said 62009 is there, let's just say 9 j-20, although I seriously doubt the existence of 62004...
3. there could be more J-20 in dingxin and cangzhou, in fact, I found it's weird to have only 4 at dingxin, the reason been that at this moment (ok that moment, when wanghai squadron just first got j-20), since there no point to having more j-20 at "Testing and Training base", because being a base unit, you don't need more number to practice any tactics and mission, and you could also have more when there are more J-20s equipped at the "frontline troops". That gives 8+4=12, ok, then we add another 4 to dingxin = 16, this makes a total 24-25 in mid of 2019.
4. July? 2019 to August 2020, 12 months, around 40-36 J-20 production, even ignoring the pandemic rumor of only 4 j-20 produced between Jan to April 2020, that's still 3~5 jets per month, even F-35 took around 1-2 years ramped from about 1 jet per month (maybe the J-20 production rate before sometime 2019) to 3 per month...
5. Honestly, I could see J-20 produce around 3 per month from let's say May (when Covid-19 roughly end in China) to May 2021, but I find it really hard to believe there are 60 J-20s already.

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stannislas said:

As I said, I agree it's almost impossible to get the real number unless they released, but again as I keep repeating myself, you can have a logical estimation over the number

1. PLAAF squadron is 8 jets, let's just give a 9, the number won't be off far
2. CCTV mentioned the "First squadron to equip J-20 is Wanghai squadron" which is at Wuhu, so 8, and since you said 62009 is there, let's just say 9 j-20, although I seriously doubt the existence of 62004...
3. there could be more J-20 in dingxin and cangzhou, in fact, I found it's weird to have only 4 at dingxin, the reason been that at this moment (ok that moment, when wanghai squadron just first got j-20), since there no point to having more j-20 at "Testing and Training base", because being a base unit, you don't need more number to practice any tactics and mission, and you could also have more when there are more J-20s equipped at the "frontline troops". That gives 8+4=12, ok, then we add another 4 to dingxin = 16, this makes a total 24-25 in mid of 2019.
4. July? 2019 to August 2020, 12 months, around 40-36 J-20 production, even ignoring the pandemic rumor of only 4 j-20 produced between Jan to April 2020, that's still 3~5 jets per month, even F-35 took around 1-2 years ramped from about 1 jet per month (maybe the J-20 production rate before sometime 2019) to 3 per month...
5. Honestly, I could see J-20 produce around 3 per month from let's say May (when Covid-19 roughly end in China) to May 2021, but I find it really hard to believe there are 60 J-20s already.

Click to expand...