Eventually 200+ built, but I must admit, to deduct a pattern I think we still have by far not enough information.
J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII
- Thread starter siegecrossbow
- Start date
Eventually 200+ built, but I must admit, to deduct a pattern I think we still have by far not enough information.
Base on the additional information from some reliable weibo account, the CB10201 is not undergoing test flight yet, but it will make its maiden flight this year.
I've tried reading back a few pages, but couldn't quite find it.
What's so special about CB10201?
Probably almost-indisputable proof (as indisputable as one can be in PLA-watching I guess) that there are more than 200 J-20s around.
Not much, really. Just that if this S/N is real it most likely means Batch 10, 201st produced in total. So basically shows that there is now in excess of 200 J-20 produced.
Of course it's going to make it's maiden flight this year. That's like saying j20s are continuing to be produced. The question is how far along it is. I think it's quite reasonable to assume that it's still somewhere in cac. But if it's already built and getting ready for first flight, then that would be in the high end of our scenario range.
by78
Lieutenant General
That account is not reliable per se. It's only reliable in that it reliably regurgitates heresy. As far as I know, cb07156 remains the highest number which allegedly had yet to enter service as of two weeks ago. Assuming the digits are sequential, to jump from 156 to 201, that's quite an unbelievable stretch. I'd love to be proven wrong, but I'm highly skeptical.
Anyway, the rumor was allegedly to have originated from user qhp1. Who is this qhp1? Is he reliable? What's his track record? What forum is he on?
Below is a screen cap of that makes fun of the echo chamber effect.
Rough translation:
Step 1: It all starts with someone opening his mouth, "according to an internal
Step 2: The rumor gets picked up idiot sandwiches () with "V" badges.
Step 3: The rumor is then rapidly spread by the followers of the said idiot sandwiches.
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cb0369 and cb0370 were first seen in November 2022 at Zhuhai. Then we saw cb07156 earlier this month, a jump of 86. Given that we've already seen a much larger jump, perhaps another jump of 45 wouldn't be that surprising.
by78
Lieutenant General
The first and only image of CB07156 first surfaced on January 11th, and a cropped version was shared here on the same day. See below for a high-resolution un-cropped version. According to AVIC's , the image in question had been taken "recently". The image background matches the northeastern end of Chengdu's runway. Taken together, it seems to me that it's probable that CB07156 was a new airframe that had yet to leave the factory. Of course, it all hinges on what AVIC meant by "recently". Is it weeks ago or months ago? Whichever the case may be, and assuming the last three digits are sequential, I don't think the image was taken so long ago that it would allow for a jump from 156 all the way to 201. On balance, I think the image couldn't have been more than two or three months old at the time of its release. Why? Note the person in the cockpit. The temperature was cold enough for him to wear a coat. Looking up meteorological information on Chengdu, only from November onwards did the temperatures drop to levels that might conceivably require a person to dress so warmly.
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Your points are well taken. Perhaps someone with time can figure out when that cb07156 picture was taken based on the position of the sunrise relative to Chengdu's runway.The first and only image of CB07156 first surfaced on January 11th, and a cropped version was shared here on the same day. See below for a high-resolution un-cropped version. According to AVIC's , the image in question had been taken "recently". The image background matches the northeastern end of Chengdu's runway. Taken together, it seems to me that it's probable that CB07156 was a new airframe that had yet to leave the factory. Of course, it all hinges on what AVIC meant by "recently". Is it weeks ago or months ago? Whichever the case may be, and assuming the last three digits are sequential, I don't think the image was taken so long ago that it would allow for a jump from 156 all the way to 201. On balance, I think the image couldn't have been more than two or three months old at the time of its release. Why? Note the person in the cockpit. The temperature was cold enough for him to wear a coat. Looking up meteorological information on Chengdu, only from November onwards did the temperatures drop to levels that might conceivably require a person to dress so warmly.
Also, how long do new J-20's stay in Chengdu after they come off the assembly line?