J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII


tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Base on the additional information from some reliable weibo account, the CB10201 is not undergoing test flight yet, but it will make its maiden flight this year.
Of course it's going to make it's maiden flight this year. That's like saying j20s are continuing to be produced. The question is how far along it is. I think it's quite reasonable to assume that it's still somewhere in cac. But if it's already built and getting ready for first flight, then that would be in the high end of our scenario range.
 

by78

Lieutenant General
View attachment 105831The latest rumor about j20, cb10201, has no pictures, but in view of the reliability of the account in the past, it is necessary to send it out, if it is true. It means that the previous New Year picture cb07156 is the old routine of pla propaganda to use old photos to fill the number.

That account is not reliable per se. It's only reliable in that it reliably regurgitates heresy. As far as I know, cb07156 remains the highest number which allegedly had yet to enter service as of two weeks ago. Assuming the digits are sequential, to jump from 156 to 201, that's quite an unbelievable stretch. I'd love to be proven wrong, but I'm highly skeptical.

Anyway, the rumor was allegedly to have originated from user qhp1. Who is this qhp1? Is he reliable? What's his track record? What forum is he on?

Below is a screen cap of that makes fun of the echo chamber effect.

Rough translation:
Step 1: It all starts with someone opening his mouth, "according to an internal sauce source... blah blah blah..."
Step 2: The rumor gets picked up idiot sandwiches (
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
) with "V" badges.
Step 3: The rumor is then rapidly spread by the followers of the said idiot sandwiches.



52649961870_7f80e5b5df_k.jpg
 
Last edited:

zbb

Junior Member
Registered Member
As far as I know, cb07156 remains the highest number which allegedly had yet to enter service as of two weeks ago. Assuming the digits are sequential, to jump from 156 to 201, that's quite an unbelievable stretch. I'd love to be proven wrong, but I'm highly skeptical.
cb0369 and cb0370 were first seen in November 2022 at Zhuhai. Then we saw cb07156 earlier this month, a jump of 86. Given that we've already seen a much larger jump, perhaps another jump of 45 wouldn't be that surprising.
 

by78

Lieutenant General
cb0369 and cb0370 were first seen in November 2022 at Zhuhai. Then we saw cb07156 earlier this month, a jump of 86. Given that we've already seen a much larger jump, perhaps another jump of 45 wouldn't be that surprising.

The first and only image of CB07156 first surfaced on January 11th, and a cropped version was shared here on the same day. See below for a high-resolution un-cropped version. According to AVIC's
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, the image in question had been taken "recently". The image background matches the northeastern end of Chengdu's runway. Taken together, it seems to me that it's probable that CB07156 was a new airframe that had yet to leave the factory. Of course, it all hinges on what AVIC meant by "recently". Is it weeks ago or months ago? Whichever the case may be, and assuming the last three digits are sequential, I don't think the image was taken so long ago that it would allow for a jump from 156 all the way to 201. On balance, I think the image couldn't have been more than two or three months old at the time of its release. Why? Note the person in the cockpit. The temperature was cold enough for him to wear a coat. Looking up meteorological information on Chengdu, only from November onwards did the temperatures drop to levels that might conceivably require a person to dress so warmly.

52650105793_a5842640d9_h.jpg
52649895484_4ca10f24ad_5k.jpg
 
Last edited:

zbb

Junior Member
Registered Member
The first and only image of CB07156 first surfaced on January 11th, and a cropped version was shared here on the same day. See below for a high-resolution un-cropped version. According to AVIC's
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, the image in question had been taken "recently". The image background matches the northeastern end of Chengdu's runway. Taken together, it seems to me that it's probable that CB07156 was a new airframe that had yet to leave the factory. Of course, it all hinges on what AVIC meant by "recently". Is it weeks ago or months ago? Whichever the case may be, and assuming the last three digits are sequential, I don't think the image was taken so long ago that it would allow for a jump from 156 all the way to 201. On balance, I think the image couldn't have been more than two or three months old at the time of its release. Why? Note the person in the cockpit. The temperature was cold enough for him to wear a coat. Looking up meteorological information on Chengdu, only from November onwards did the temperatures drop to levels that might conceivably require a person to dress so warmly.

52650105793_a5842640d9_h.jpg
52649895484_4ca10f24ad_5k.jpg
Your points are well taken. Perhaps someone with time can figure out when that cb07156 picture was taken based on the position of the sunrise relative to Chengdu's runway.

Also, how long do new J-20's stay in Chengdu after they come off the assembly line?
 

Top