correct? As it seems our estimation was indeed wrong and now the final numbers are progressive instead of showing the numbers within each batch?
J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII
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correct? As it seems our estimation was indeed wrong and now the final numbers are progressive instead of showing the numbers within each batch?
Sure but we thought CB0370 meant maybe ~170 aircraft but if the last digits are actually sequential of total production and we have a CB07156 that would mean we are at at least 156 aircraft and maybe/probably higher.
lcloo
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May be PLAAF and Chengdu AVIC is doing something so incredible that is beyond our belief. They could have decided to open "the long rumoured 4 assembly lines for J20" and decided that batch 7 production-run should be stretched over a period of more than 12 months.
China is always capable of doing things beyond our expectation. May be this is one of them.
China is always capable of doing things beyond our expectation. May be this is one of them.
Does that mean the number of J-20s present is actually lower than what we have initially thought back in November?
Potentially yes. By anywhere from 20 to 50.
Man... So my 欢喜扑了个空?
Therefore, I suppose that the previously estimated annual production rate for the J-20 should be reduced as well?
What was the value last time - 70 J-20s per year?
hmm, that might be a high estimate. Remember, when we used that method, we had always assumed that the last number was the highest it could be, because we had in our mind how many J-20s there might be.
If we now assume batch sizes are about 24 each and that the 7th batch was fully delivered by the end of year, then there are about 170 J-20s, which isn't that far off our original estimate. Moreover, if we assessed last year that there are about 100 J-20s at the end of the year, the production rate of close to 70 is still reasonable.
The guy in the cockpit is wearing a PP mask sitting alone so probably during zero COVID. (not that it really helps but..)
Yeah, hence my earlier comments about getting the answer right with the wrong method lol. But I think it’s more likely now that we are not yet closing on 200, and 20-50 is mostly in reference to that higher count.
Ok … I think I need indeed to check my image collection and start again from scratch with a theory.
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