J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

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stannislas

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sequ said:
Can we by now safely assume that there are ~120 J-20 in service?
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Should be, for the 3rd-4th quarter last year, we got
cangzhou (1 dadui, 10),
dingxin (2 dadui 20),
wuhu (2-3 dadui 20-30),
anshan (1-2 dadui, 10-20),
Guilin? (1 dadui, 10),
korla (1 dadui, 10),
that’s 80-100 at least

and to produce another 30+ in the past 8-12 months is totally possible
 
Deino

Deino

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Just a critical thought
1f914.svg

by78 said:
Twin-seater. Has this been shared before?

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… but how likely is it that the latest image of the J-20AS no. 2032 is a photoshop fake? Either it has a different, much lighter colour scheme than no. 2031 or due to different lighting conditions or it is still the same yellow primer psed to grey.

FB7ED416-6DE5-435F-9B5C-4A13C10089FB.jpeg7CB18CF4-8DBF-48D8-B096-FA2ABC82863A.jpeg
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

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Deino said:
Just a critical thought
1f914.svg



… but how likely is it that the latest image of the J-20AS no. 2032 is a photoshop fake? Either it has a different, much lighter colour scheme than no. 2031 or due to different lighting conditions or it is still the same yellow primer psed to grey.

View attachment 95608View attachment 95609
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If it's just based on the tone of the colours of black and grey, that could very much just be due to the camera settings.

It's also a completely new angle for any J-20AS we've seen captured on photo, so I'd be surprised if someone went to the effort of doctoring a completely new image.
But also, it's not impossible given people's past propensity for trolling the community.


Either way, being painted in black and grey is hardly a milestone these days. Everyone knows that sn 2032 exists and, it's just a matter of time for it to get its colours if it hasn't already, going by CAC's past pattern.
 
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Blitzo

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Totoro said:
Is there any news on the 56th brigade? Allegedly J-20 have been spotted there... if so, that'd be the 5th frontline brigade for the J-20? And second new one spotted with J-20 in 2022?

Anyway, is that still just a rumor or have there been any further photos other than that one blurry tail pic with a serial that could have easily been PSed?
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Not yet at this stage.

This will be the new normal for new J-20 brigades I suspect -- get a low quality image of a serial number along with rumours, then get nothing for months or a year or more, until we get a handful of images of slightly clearer quality showing additional serials.


We should temper our expectations a bit, because it's quite apparent now that the PLA are actively:
- suppressing release of images of new serial numbers for new units, in terms of release of imagery but also quality of said images.
- suppressing release of images of new serials that could indicate the true number of active aircraft in a given unit at any point in time
 
by78

by78

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Deino said:
Just a critical thought
1f914.svg



… but how likely is it that the latest image of the J-20AS no. 2032 is a photoshop fake? Either it has a different, much lighter colour scheme than no. 2031 or due to different lighting conditions or it is still the same yellow primer psed to grey.

View attachment 95608View attachment 95609
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I think you're onto something. The silver/gray on this bird looks suspicious flat. It could be the lighting, but I'm leaning toward this being a yellow-primer bird, with the colors dialed down to almost black-and-white. It's a simple manipulation that can be done in any basic photo editing software.
 
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Tiberium

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by78 said:
I think you're onto something. The silver/gray on this bird looks suspicious flat. It could be the lighting, but I'm leaning toward this being a yellow-primer bird, with the colors dialed down to almost black-and-white. It's a simple manipulation that can be done in any basic photo editing software.
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Noting that the number 2032 is dark grey but on all the previous J-20 prototype the number is white, you may have a very good point.
 
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gongolongo

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Equation said:
Western media China watchers and pundits are ready for this movie as well. They will claim China is another "copy" nation trying to produce their own TOP GUN film. Never mind that this is China's actual 5th generation fighter (J-20) as the main jet fighter protagonist instead of the F-18/ EA-18 Hornet/Growler types was only a 4th generation fighter on the Top Gun Maverick film. Even the F-35 doesn't get any Hollywood love.
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Top gun is almost all real photography and minimal CGI. I feel like this new Chinese Top Gun is going to go heavy CGI with little practical effect. They might need to considering the J-20 is a single seater.
 
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Totoro

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stannislas said:
Should be, for the 3rd-4th quarter last year, we got
cangzhou (1 dadui, 10),
dingxin (2 dadui 20),
wuhu (2-3 dadui 20-30),
anshan (1-2 dadui, 10-20),
Guilin? (1 dadui, 10),
korla (1 dadui, 10),
that’s 80-100 at least

and to produce another 30+ in the past 8-12 months is totally possible
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If I am reading this correctly, you're saying that the Chinese military forum watches (assuming they're your source) had four frontline brigades using the J-20, on top of the training/tactics bases, by the end of 2021?

Not sure how that meshes with some other info we had. Scramble.nl says Korla (111th brigade) began receiving J-20s in 2022, not in the fourth quarter of 2021.

I believe I also saw Deino, over at CDF, also post J-20 at Korla info in April 2022, not earlier. Though he may be best to clarify whether he also had knowledge of J-20 being at Korla earlier than that.

Allow me to also try to expand your list with dates when J-20 were first spotted at units, using CDF, Huitong and Scramble info.
The only big sticking point is that scramble claims 1st brigade got their J20 in 2020 while CDF/Huitong say it was in 2021.

(I am leaving out the 56th brigade for now, as one image isn't sufficient to be as sure of it as with other units)

cangzhou (1 dadui, 10), around 2018
dingxin (2 dadui 20), around 2016
wuhu (2-3 dadui 20-30), 9th, mid 2018
anshan (1-2 dadui, 10-20), 1st, early 2020 or early 2021? some/all WS10
Guilin? (1 dadui, 10), 5th, late 2021, WS10
korla (1 dadui, 10), 111th, early 2022, WS10
 
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stannislas

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Totoro said:
If I am reading this correctly, you're saying that the Chinese military forum watches (assuming they're your source) had four frontline brigades using the J-20, on top of the training/tactics bases, by the end of 2021?

Not sure how that meshes with some other info we had. Scramble.nl says Korla (111th brigade) began receiving J-20s in 2022, not in the fourth quarter of 2021.

I believe I also saw Deino, over at CDF, also post J-20 at Korla info in April 2022, not earlier. Though he may be best to clarify whether he also had knowledge of J-20 being at Korla earlier than that.

Allow me to also try to expand your list with dates when J-20 were first spotted at units, using CDF, Huitong and Scramble info.
The only big sticking point is that scramble claims 1st brigade got their J20 in 2020 while CDF/Huitong say it was in 2021.

(I am leaving out the 56th brigade for now, as one image isn't sufficient to be as sure of it as with other units)

cangzhou (1 dadui, 10), around 2018
dingxin (2 dadui 20), around 2016
wuhu (2-3 dadui 20-30), 9th, mid 2018
anshan (1-2 dadui, 10-20), 1st, early 2020 or early 2021? some/all WS10
Guilin? (1 dadui, 10), 5th, late 2021, WS10
korla (1 dadui, 10), 111th, early 2022, WS10
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ok, little bit confused here, let me try to understand your question,
  1. you are asking me if I got the same source with the Chinese military forum watches?
  2. you are asking four frontline brigades using the J-20 by the end of 2021?
  3. you are questioning our/mine/Scramble.nl source over the when Korla (111th brigade) began receiving J-20s, 2022 or 2021?
to answer your question
  1. as flatter as it is, weibo/tieba yes, but no my source was internet information as well.
  2. yes, in fact this is the exact same answer of question 3 as well, there were rumors that by the end of 2021, every theater command had got a brigade with J-20, we just don't know it was Korla by then, most people were suspect somewhere near Chengdu. later we know that it was STC that place the J-20 near Chengdu.
also, unlike rest of place in China, Korla is very remote and the city was tiny, so unless PLA want to let you know that there are J-20 there (like they placed 2 J-20s under satellite in Korla airport during the boarder conflict with India), 4 months of delay since the end of 4th quater of 2021 is rather quick I would say.

far as I can recall, some other unconfirmed J-20 rumors
  • Cangzhou, may had the 2nd dadui with J-20, I somehow remember there was a picture with serial number suggested more than 3rd Dadui has J-20 there, which was exactly the same way we know 2nd Dadui in Wuhu started to equip J-20
  • Quzhou, yes, the preious picture there was the J-20 from Wuhu, but later I remembered there were rumors that after J-20 moved back, there were still J-20 there, however I'm not sure how real this rumor is
  • where is the first line troop that equip J-20 in CTC? 56th brigade?
 
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Totoro

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Thanks.

Indeed, the photographed tail serials for 1st brigade (Anshan) suggest a range from 02 to 18, at least, so two daduis seem likely there.

9th brigade tail numbers also range from 01 to 27, with not that many gaps in between, so the likelihood of 3 daduis there is quite high.

And 56th brigade is indeed the rumored CTC unit.

Anyway. If indeed 111th brigade got their by the end of 2021, and if indeed those dadui counts are on the higher end, which seems likely, then
some 100 J-20 delivered by the end of 2021 seems quite plausible.

Question is then whether first Anshan (1st brigade) planes came in 2020 or 2021. if the latter is true, then as many as 3 different units got some planes, likely a single dadui, in that year. So that'd suggest a delivery pace of up to 30 J-20 in 2021 alone.

That'd also make it possible that 2022 the delivery run may ultimately even exceed 30 planes.
 
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