J-20 5th Generation Fighter VII

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Blitzo

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If that picture is real are we *sure* that it isn’t just the WS-10 with TVC?

We can't be sure of anything IMO.

We just have to let it simmer a bit and wait it out.

Personally I am just pleasantly surprised that there's been any news about J-20 and a new engine to begin with (whether it's WS-15, or at this stage seemingly less likely WS-10 w/ TVC).
But I won't be surprised if it takes months if not longer for pictures to emerge, not dissimilar to Y-20 with WS-20.


One thing I will say about whether this is J-20 w/ WS-10 and TVC, is that back in the 2018 Zhuhai, Yang Wei answered a reporter's question about whether J-20 may use J-10B's TVC technology with a question of his own, along the lines of "how do you know it's not already using it" -- which to me was strongly alluding to the idea that J-20 at that time had already been testing WS-10 with TVC (single engine or two, we do not know).

I factor that into my assessment of the current rumours.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
I don’t know if that specific picture is real, but from the looks of it the new TVC engine (according to witnesses) uses the same petal design as the WS-10 TVC demonstrator. We can’t be sure of anything at this point.
Yeah I think an identical nozzle different engine situation is possible too. But that will put pressure for alternative forms of confirmation.
 

Blitzo

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Yeah I think an identical nozzle different engine situation is possible too. But that will put pressure for alternative forms of confirmation.

I think it may be "identical" in the sense that obvious abnormalities may not be visible with the quality of imagery that we are likely to get.

But I would be a bit surprised if it were literally identical down to the details.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
I think it may be "identical" in the sense that obvious abnormalities may not be visible with the quality of imagery that we are likely to get.

But I would be a bit surprised if it were literally identical down to the details.
Agreed. But it might be very difficult to ascertain these differences if we only get a drip of photos, and we also wouldn’t be able to rule out progressive revisions being made to the nozzle design for a WS-10 with TVC.
 

siegecrossbow

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To me the use of WS-10 TVC style nozzles make perfect sense. It has already flown with a test demonstrator for several years and since it is unlikely that they’ll integrate it with the J-10s, all that acquired knowledge would go to waste if they don’t integrate it with the J-20. Going for F-22 style TVC nozzles seems like reinventing the wheel when China has neither the time nor funding to play around with new designs.
 

Blitzo

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Agreed. But it might be very difficult to ascertain these differences if we only get a drip of photos, and we also wouldn’t be able to rule out progressive revisions being made to the nozzle design for a WS-10 with TVC.

Right.

My position, imo, as always -- is that rumours lead the way, and pictures only exist to verify.
Obviously, in the case of engines, we treat things with greater caution as is appropriate.
But I am saying it's very likely that we may not get any sort of smoking gun "definitive" confirmation of WS-15 engines powering J-20 from this recent news, even if/when we get a relatively clear picture of the nozzles.
 
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