J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII

[Deino]

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The Monkey King claims that ETC has retired its vanilla J-20 (AL-31) and sent them to WTC.

But AL-31 powered means only the 9th AB sind all other ETC units fly later WS-10C powered ones.

However, more important would be to know which WTC Unit got them?

 

[siegecrossbow]

But AL-31 powered means only the 9th AB sind all other ETC units fly later WS-10C powered ones.

However, more important would be to know which WTC Unit got them?

There aren’t that many Russian engine planes, you are correct. My guess would be Hotan.

 

[MeiouHades]

Correct me if I'm wrong but don't the bases in Tibet near India (under WTC) already have some J-20s with WS-10s?

 

[Deino]

But why Hotan? AFAIK no Unit besides the FTTB Brigades and the 9th AB used the old AL-31 powered ones. Per my guess, the 9th AB‘s went to the 177th.

 

[Maikeru]

Hotan 99th Bde has new-ish J-16s. I suspect these will go to either 109th at Changji (still using some J-8 FFS) or 110th at Urumqi South (JH-7A).

 

[00CuriousObserver]

In light of today's J-36 news, if the J-36 is really progressing as stated (personally I'm EEERR about the LRIP), then these are certainly within the range of reasonable projections.

Remains to be seen, of course.

An opinion from York. Maybe he's basing it on some info, but it is an opinion to consider nonetheless.

He thinks the prior for the total number of J-20s produced should be reconsidered and revised downwards, and that it might not surpass 1000 airframes. The reasoning is simple: 6th gens are on the horizon, and it would probably be more cost-effective to shift resources to 6th gens and UADFs.

That's the thing. "At the current pace" is an assumption, and it's subject to change due to the pace of the next gens.

Unlike the complementary relationship of 4th and 5th gen aircraft, the transition to 6th gen aircraft and associated UAVs is much more of a direct upgrade. Instead of pouring resources into building more J-20s, it might be more efficient to put those resources into speeding up the 6th gens. Conversely, speeding up the 6th gens may also impact the rate of J-20 production, e.g. the factory may need to go through various changes.

York did mention that "even people in the know were surprised by this". Of course, it's just an opinionated rumour, but something to keep in mind as I think many people have naturally assumed that the total J-20 count will reach 4 digits.

I agree that the gap in inherent capabilities from 4th to 5th generation is larger than from 5th to 6th generation, but "complementary" here is more about being more cost-effective in their respective roles than about the capability gap. For example, perhaps the lack of stealth makes 4th gens better suited to being missile trucks. Perhaps they are also cheaper to operate against lower-end opponents when carrying out many of the "dirtier" tasks.

The point regarding 5th and 6th gen aircraft is that, for future procurement, basically every role that these additional 5th gen aircrqaft could do could be done better (and more cost-effectively) by 6th gens (by this point, we'd be looking at almost 1,000 J-20s, if not more, plus several hundred J-35s). So the argument is to simply procure the 6th gen aircraft instead.

 

[Gloire_bb]

I agree that the gap in inherent capabilities from 4th to 5th generation is larger than from 5th to 6th generation, but "complementary" here is more about being more cost-effective in their respective roles than about the capability gap. For example, perhaps the lack of stealth makes 4th gens better suited to being missile trucks. Perhaps they are also cheaper to operate against lower-end opponents when carrying out many of the "dirtier" tasks.

The point regarding 5th and 6th gen aircraft is that, for future procurement, basically every role that these additional 5th gen aircrqaft could do could be done better (and more cost-effectively) by 6th gens (by this point, we'd be looking at almost 1,000 J-20s, if not more, plus several hundred J-35s). So the argument is to simply procure the 6th gen aircraft instead.

I'd personally come to the more or less same conclusion from the opposite input.

5th gen fleet should be built enough as to close the tasks it's good at; there is more than enough (absolute majority in fact) of missions where wideband LO is worth less than control complications. At the same time, they aren't infinite - building more high maintenance airr superiority aircraft than practical during peacetime is just impractical; frontline/1st IC air superiority is more or less covered for the time being.

At the same time, 6th-gen tests likely won't really impact J-35 procurement at all, and not too likely that LW plans will.

 

[siegecrossbow]

In light of today's J-36 news, if the J-36 is really progressing as stated (personally I'm EEERR about the LRIP), then these are certainly within the range of reasonable projections.

Remains to be seen, of course.

One downside of this is that China has overproduced baseline J-20 and from what I’ve heard they have some upgrade compatibility issues with the A variant. How to optimize those as the airframes age is going to be a concern.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

One downside of this is that China has overproduced baseline J-20 and from what I’ve heard they have some upgrade compatibility issues with the A variant. How to optimize those as the airframes age is going to be a concern.

Pakistan: Me! Me! Me!

 

[ismellcopium]

One downside of this is that China has overproduced baseline J-20 and from what I’ve heard they have some upgrade compatibility issues with the A variant

The base J-20 has incompatibility with A's radar/avionics you mean (expected)? Or baseline/WS-10 A variant has some sort of issues