Extrapolating from prior annual production numbers is unreliable. It's perfectly reasonable to expect some level of disruption from switching over to J-20A/S production.
J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
Extrapolating from prior annual production numbers is unreliable. It's perfectly reasonable to expect some level of disruption from switching over to J-20A/S production.
I agree. I think extrapolation would yield results similar to the ones given after mine, but we simply haven't seen any of those airframes to confirm, so we're stuck with pretty nebulous bounds.
I'd say that given the change in production to J-20A the yearly production rate cannot be stated with any real degree of confidence. I wouldn't be surprised with anything from 25 to 125. As for the total number in service, we have a bit more clarity there, it's almost certainly more than 300 and I'd say it's very likely to be at least 350 by now.
This post by Deino is a bit outdated, in this thread we have received confirmation that a number of the units listed there has been confirmed to be operated J-20 now. This includes 19th, 131st, 2nd, and I believe that 55th was also confirmed at some point? There are also additional AB that are now confirmed or rumored including 21st, and 41st as well as the first J-20A unit now forming which would entail the transfer of at least some of their J-20 to a different unit.
So if we wrap everything up and include the FTTB, there should be at least 350ish J-20 in service and given that our rumor/confirmation is usually delayed by at least a little and sometimes by 6 months or more it's not unreasonable to think it's somewhere around 400 now. Anything significantly higher than that I think is unlikely, especially in light of the change in production to J-20A.
This post by Deino is a bit outdated, in this thread we have received confirmation that a number of the units listed there has been confirmed to be operated J-20 now. This includes 19th, 131st, 2nd, and I believe that 55th was also confirmed at some point? There are also additional AB that are now confirmed or rumored including 21st, and 41st as well as the first J-20A unit now forming which would entail the transfer of at least some of their J-20 to a different unit.
So if we wrap everything up and include the FTTB, there should be at least 350ish J-20 in service and given that our rumor/confirmation is usually delayed by at least a little and sometimes by 6 months or more it's not unreasonable to think it's somewhere around 400 now. Anything significantly higher than that I think is unlikely, especially in light of the change in production to J-20A.
antiterror13
Brigadier
I would be surprised if J-20 already passed 500 this year, it is possible though ...
Really interesting photo, I don't see pictures of the J-20 with ferry tanks very often. You sure that's a J-20A, though? Difficult to tell from that angle, but the darker radome suggests just a J-20? It could just look dark next to the yellow primer, I suppose.
It has the new EOTS