J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VIII

[Andy1974]

Perhaps my memory is failing me but didn’t we used to think that a brigade of J-20’s was 30 units? And that these 30 were delivered in batches of 10?

If that’s true then is we have 17 brigades then no base would have less that 10, and some might have more than 30.

It would be great to know how many shelters these 17 brigades have because that is the maximum amount of J-20s there could be without us knowing about it on satellite.

Personally, I don’t think they would slow down J20 production during this critical time. As far as I read here the new factory expansion is for J-20As and the original is for J-20s.

There were rumors of 500 J-20s in total and I still think that us reasonable, I also think that we are getting close to that number.

For those that keep shutting down the idea of large numbers of J-20’s. You are the same ones being constantly surprised.

17*30=510

 

[latenlazy]

Perhaps my memory is failing me but didn’t we used to think that a brigade of J-20’s was 30 units? And that these 30 were delivered in batches of 10?

If that’s true then is we have 17 brigades then no base would have less that 10, and some might have more than 30.

It would be great to know how many shelters these 17 brigades have because that is the maximum amount of J-20s there could be without us knowing about it on satellite.

Personally, I don’t think they would slow down J20 production during this critical time. As far as I read here the new factory expansion is for J-20As and the original is for J-20s.

There were rumors of 500 J-20s in total and I still think that us reasonable, I also think that we are getting close to that number.

For those that keep shutting down the idea of large numbers of J-20’s. You are the same ones being constantly surprised.

17*30=510

In a crude general sense orbat structures shifted over the last few years as different brigades became more specialized in the kinds of missions and tasks they’re equipped for. This has thrown a spanner in older methodologies.

 

[Deino]

Perhaps my memory is failing me but didn’t we used to think that a brigade of J-20’s was 30 units? And that these 30 were delivered in batches of 10?

If that’s true then is we have 17 brigades then no base would have less that 10, and some might have more than 30.

It would be great to know how many shelters these 17 brigades have because that is the maximum amount of J-20s there could be without us knowing about it on satellite.

Personally, I don’t think they would slow down J20 production during this critical time. As far as I read here the new factory expansion is for J-20As and the original is for J-20s.

There were rumors of 500 J-20s in total and I still think that us reasonable, I also think that we are getting close to that number.

For those that keep shutting down the idea of large numbers of J-20’s. You are the same ones being constantly surprised.

17*30=510

Do you even read what others write!

I explained, not all bases have the same complement, especially the two FTTB units since they also operate additional daduis of other types. Even more you rate any even rumoured only units are confirmed and fully equipped!

And @Totoro already counted each base's shelters. So why again opening this can of worms?

And now you think that makes sense? 500 J-20?? Based on what? I wish or is it just to feel good?

 

[siegecrossbow]

One major complication for satellite analysis is that PLAAF regularly practice rapid raptor style deployment of assets. Aircraft and pilots from central or western TC can easily show up in bases along the coast, some times for months.

 

[Totoro]

Indeed, there are test base birds missing from that list. 172nd and 176th brigade.
Plus, x number of shelters doesn't have to mean the unit has x number of planes.
But also, quite a few of the unit images on GE are like 2 or 3 years old. There is no way of knowing how many shelters they have today.

 

[Andy1974]

Do you even read what others write!

I explained, not all bases have the same complement, especially the two FTTB units since they also operate additional daduis of other types. Even more you rate any even rumoured only units are confirmed and fully equipped!

And @Totoro already counted each base's shelters. So why again opening this can of worms?

And now you think that makes sense? 500 J-20?? Based on what? I wish or is it just to feel good?

It’s based on info here, an insider when discussing the J-20A said that he was surprised that J20 production would end up being around 500.

It is based in the common belief that J20 production is around 100 a year and has been for a while. They have probably made 25 this year already.

it is based Xi’s saying that we do not discard the old until the new is ready, meaning full speed J-20 production will continue until full speed J-20A construction has started.

Also. @Toronto didn’t do a full listing, that why I said it would be good to have a complete set of images so we can get a full count. How can you ignore or not see that?

I don’t rate rumored units as confirmed with 30, I am talking about the J-20 production unit in total. Once the J-20 production is finished, there would be around 500 J-20’s. That is my claim, based on the above.

I also didn’t say all bases would have 30, I said some would have more. Do you even read what I write?

 

[Blitzo]

Do you even read what others write!

I explained, not all bases have the same complement, especially the two FTTB units since they also operate additional daduis of other types. Even more you rate any even rumoured only units are confirmed and fully equipped!

And @Totoro already counted each base's shelters. So why again opening this can of worms?

And now you think that makes sense? 500 J-20?? Based on what? I wish or is it just to feel good?

The underlying assumption of "all frontline J-20 brigades having 30 airframes at full strength" imo is not unreasonable.
I also think it's unwise to assume that shelters correspond inherently to airframes.

Or course, it's also true that not every J-20 brigade will be at full strength because some will be still receiving them.


My view is that if we accept that OPSEC means that we have no idea how many J-20s are delivered anyway, then in theory anywhere from 250 to 500 airframes today could be "feasible" because of lack of food imagery to track production serials or regular satellite imagery of all air bases.
That means we have to combine rumours of CAC production rates versus rumours of bases that are receiving J-20s, and accept that whether we have pictures of J-20s at a base or not is entirely irrelevant and an unreliable indicator to disprove their presence or lack of presence.

 

[Andy1974]

Regarding using serial numbers or tail numbers to determine the number of J-20‘s produced seems incredibly unreliable and open to easy manipulation by the PLA.

It’s so unreliable that the PLA could be changing the numbering schemes and we wouldn’t know, it is illogical to use this as the basis for our assumptions regarding numbers.

What would be preferable is using logic and listening more carefully to insiders.

Any assumptions people have based on numbers painted on aircraft on images the PLA is feeding you is frankly open to question.

The best we can say is that a certain aircraft exists, we should NEVER say because a certain aircraft exists this is assumed to be the limit.

So for example, if we see a J-20 at a new base with number 15 of that brigade, we should not assume there is 15 J-20s there. We should say there is probably 20 or 30 there, based on our logic, and more likely 30.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Satellite may not be accurate since planes are usually kept in shelters. We know that Anshan has been operating at full capacity for several years now but I’ve only ever seen one J-20 in the open.

 

[ENTED64]

Me again and what I find amazing/surprising ... if these numbers are at least half-way correct (at least we usually get a rough hint, when a new unit converted even if the true number is unknown) it seems as if production slowed down!?? ... Maybe a hint, they are converting the lines to the J-20A?

Thanks for doing the work to collect and collate this. This is very useful information to have collected in 1 place. I don't know anywhere that has this info listed like this.

It's possible but as others have pointed out it would be inefficient to ramp production then a year later drop it again. I feel like the more likely answer is either a slower ramp to begin with or there are J-20s we don't have info for.

A better question is to ask, if there are some 400+ J-20s that exist at the moment, would they be able to hide it?

Almost certainly yes, at least to OSINT. We might get rumors but we rarely get hard confirmation nowadays it seems.

My hunch, though, is that ever-increasing opsec is the biggest reason why we are getting so little info and belated info.

Yeah this is probably it, but it still leaves the count kind of just up in the air.

In summary: a maximum of 284 to 388 J-20! .... per my own calculation I would guess is at about 350 by year's end.

There are also units in the pipeline/undelivered as there is some time between when a J-20 rolls off the assembly line to when it is accepted for front line service. That said your numbers seem pretty reasonable, the 300+ figure from Lockheed Martin CEO fits in as well. Something a bit above 300 would be near the middle of your range and account for some J-20s still in the pipeline.

It’s based on info here, an insider when discussing the J-20A said that he was surprised that J20 production would end up being around 500.

It is based in the common belief that J20 production is around 100 a year and has been for a while. They have probably made 25 this year already.

it is based Xi’s saying that we do not discard the old until the new is ready, meaning full speed J-20 production will continue until full speed J-20A construction has started.

I feel like the evidence you give is fairly weak. Xi's comments are probably more generic and not focused on 1 specific weapon system for the PLAAF and should not be taken to be all that relevant. That just leaves us with insider leaks/rumors which kind of just need to go into the same bucket as other insider leaks/rumors. Even if the insider you cite is correct that may mean J-20 will just continue production for another year or two to get to 500 because they want to delay J-20A for a while. It doesn't necessarily mean we're near 500 J-20s right now.