J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VI

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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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Problem is, on what time-span? Around 2030, US 6th generation fighters will enter service. With the J-20, it can probably begin mass deployment within the next 5 years, but a smaller "light" model along the lines of the F-35 would take a similar development process and perhaps not be ready until 2025 at the earliest.

China is better off just spamming the heavy J-20 and move on to sixth generation fighters, with the aim of quickly negating US capabilities.

If they use more modern prototyping techniques they can do the design process a lot faster. Just look at how quickly Shenyang iterated on the FC-31 prototype. They can just reuse a lot of the solutions used in the J-20. Same engine, much of the same avionics, similar cockpit, similar radar technology but with a smaller radar, etc. So all it would take would be to design a new airframe to go along with it. Also, remember, we have seen the FC-31, there was supposed to be a competition, but we have never seen the competing aircraft from Chengdu. Then there is the fact that the FC-31 designer himself basically played down his achievement saying that what was more important was the processes they developed for that project rather than any specific prototype.

It is like it was said above. The J-20, because it is a dual engine aircraft, is too expensive to field in large enough numbers to replace the lightweight aircraft like the J-7 or the J-10. The engine is a significant part of an aircraft's cost. Just by using a single engine you can significantly reduce costs.

When flying over continental China single engine failures are less critical because the pilot can eject overland. So the single engine makes more sense. In a carrier, a dual engine makes more sense given the current reliability of both Chinese and Russian engines.

I expect the WS-15 to become operational until 2020. But it seems like they will iterate the J-20 engines more than just wait for the WS-15. Like that cartoon with the new nozzles similar to F-35 nozzles. Probably the same existing engine (?) but with a new nozzle to reduce IR emissions.
 
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Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Problem is, on what time-span? Around 2030, US 6th generation fighters will enter service. With the J-20, it can probably begin mass deployment within the next 5 years, but a smaller "light" model along the lines of the F-35 would take a similar development process and perhaps not be ready until 2025 at the earliest.

China is better off just spamming the heavy J-20 and move on to sixth generation fighters, with the aim of quickly negating US capabilities.

I've wondered about that too. Given what we know of US 6th gen development efforts, I doubt we will be seeing a US 6th gen fighter by 2030; in fact even 2035 might not be feasible.

Considering other nations/groups like UK, Europe, Japan, are seeking to develop new 5th gen or "5.5th gen" fighters intended to enter service in the mid 2030s (Tempest, FCAS, F-3 respectively), and that those programmes have only recently begun to move forward -- and how the US has yet to even define a programme -- at this stage I think the earliest that a US 6th gen capability will emerge by is the late 2030s.


Furthermore, just because 6th gen capbailities will emerge doesn't mean 5th gen capabilities will suddenly become irrelevant, as it will likely take time for 6th gen capability to roll out on a large scale, and how 5th gen fighters may be upgraded with 6th gen capabilities.


Depending on the cost of large vs medium fighter 5th gen fighters (J-20 vs FC-31 derivative), production rate, as well as the availability of an acceptable powerplant, it may well make sense to procure a medium weight 5th gen fighter in large numbers as well.
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
Nah, J-20 prototypes s/n 2001/2002 would clearly be HVTs during a conflict.

Actually the model is crude because that serves whatever its actual function really is, I wouldn't get too excited about this whole little scenario, its a training aide to make their training a little more realistic and to motivate the participants by reminding them that there is a real adversary..... keeping it real, that's all...

However, if those Marines knew how "tweaked" this has made the op-for, they would build a bunch more, they just love tweaking folks who aren't necessarily friendlies, and they really like tweaking the "Hostiles!", LOL......
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
I've wondered about that too. Given what we know of US 6th gen development efforts, I doubt we will be seeing a US 6th gen fighter by 2030; in fact even 2035 might not be feasible.

Considering other nations/groups like UK, Europe, Japan, are seeking to develop new 5th gen or "5.5th gen" fighters intended to enter service in the mid 2030s (Tempest, FCAS, F-3 respectively), and that those programmes have only recently begun to move forward -- and how the US has yet to even define a programme -- at this stage I think the earliest that a US 6th gen capability will emerge by is the late 2030s.


Furthermore, just because 6th gen capbailities will emerge doesn't mean 5th gen capabilities will suddenly become irrelevant, as it will likely take time for 6th gen capability to roll out on a large scale, and how 5th gen fighters may be upgraded with 6th gen capabilities.


Depending on the cost of large vs medium fighter 5th gen fighters (J-20 vs FC-31 derivative), production rate, as well as the availability of an acceptable powerplant, it may well make sense to procure a medium weight 5th gen fighter in large numbers as well.

All very good observations Bub! it all takes time and a LOT of money, I think building a 5.5 in the interim would likely give us the capability we need, if we built an F-22 upgrade or even YF-23 with more efficient powerplants?? and I know China will no doubt do a number of upgrades to the J-20 as the WS-15 comes on line?? so incremental steps are a positive way to move the ball down the field, without breaking the bank, and ending up with something that doesn't quite measure up to our expectations.....
 

s002wjh

Junior Member
The US j20 mock are used for training in the article.
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USAF Confirms: The Chinese J-20 Spotted In Georgia Is a Mock-Up Used For Training by the U.S. Marine Corps

The Mystery Chinese Stealth Jet Seen at U.S. Base Is For Marine OPFOR Training.

The U.S. Air Force has officially confirmed to TheAviationist.com that the
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, on Wednesday, Dec. 5, is a training mock-up for use by the United States Marine Corps.



“It is a full scale replica and remained at the Air Dominance Center for a short period during the week of 4-6 Dec. The USMC is funding and directing the training objectives of this device […] Col. Emmanuel Haldopoulos, Commander of the Savannah Air Dominance Center, wrote us.



The specific role of the realistic, full scale mock-up has not yet been clarified by official U. S. Marine Corps sources.



The photo caused worldwide speculation when we broke the story on Thursday, the day after the aircraft was sighted at Savannah-Hilton Head Airport. It was provided to us by a reliable spotter who asked to remain anonymous and shot the photo from public property. A number of theories about the plane’s authenticity and origin, including bizarre ideas about a Viktor Belenko style defection, however unlikely, swirled around social media. The Russian media outlet Sputnik ran a feature on the photograph and our story.



Internet and social media pundits around the world have viewed the photo millions of times and
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on what the aircraft was doing in the U.S. Others incorrectly questioned if the photo was authentic. In the internet frenzy that followed publication of the photo, some observers, including Russian sources, suggested the photo may have been altered or created using digital resources such as Photoshop.



One observer provided a radar track of an unidentified aircraft that was alleged to have flown from Alaska to Savannah-Hilton Head Airport just prior to the sighting. As is usually the case the conspiracy theories of secret defections and fake Photoshop images proved incorrect.


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FotoForensics analysis suggests that it is Photoshopped. There are varying levels of image compression in the picture that just so happens to form the silhouette of the J-20. Meaning that someone pasted an image of the J-20 model onto a background.

We have been confirmed via email by the Commander of the U.S. Air Force Air Dominance Center that the J-20 is a full-scale replica parked there Dec. 4-6. This finally proves your forensics analysis was wrong.

Late last week, Chinese Defense subject matter expert Andreas Rupprecht, noted author of several authoritative reference books on the Chinese air forces, was the first to observe that the aircraft’s control surfaces had not moved while parked in a static position. He also noted that the exhaust nozzles looked inaccurate and the landing gear was different from a real Chengdu J-20 Mighty Dragon. These observations confirmed the aircraft was a full-scale mock-up and not a real Chengdu J-20.
 
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localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Some guy mentioned RCS. Do you really need a mockup to look at RCS? Shouldn't simulation be sufficient nowadays?
 

Inst

Captain
At Blitzo, my point is that you have truer arguments talking about the effectiveness of interceptors in air superiority roles than that of the J-20's agility. Supersonic, I can see it, subsonic, I can't. You are relying on design docs which only indicate intent. The J-20 could very well have failed in subsonic agility goals, especially if there was major weight gain between prototype and production.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
At Blitzo, my point is that you have truer arguments talking about the effectiveness of interceptors in air superiority roles than that of the J-20's agility. Supersonic, I can see it, subsonic, I can't. You are relying on design docs which only indicate intent. The J-20 could very well have failed in subsonic agility goals, especially if there was major weight gain between prototype and production.
Do we have reason for believing that the J-20 failed to meet design goals?
 
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