J-20 5th Gen Fighter Thread VI

[Inst]

-snip-

People have a confused idea of what an interceptor is. Historically, many fighter aircraft were interceptors, all second-generation jet fighters were either interceptors or fighter-bombers, with an absence of dedicated dogfighters. It's between the third and fourth-generation of fighters that maneuverability / dogfighting came into the fore; when dog-fighting was seen as a key vulnerability for interceptors, the air superiority role was developed, combining the capabilities of an interceptor with that of a dogfighter.

I think the J-20 should be, for all intents and purposes, be considered an interceptor. It's not merely about whether the J-20 can dogfight, which is a bizarre fixation in a world of HOBS missiles, but rather about numbers. The J-20, at current exchange rates, costs roughly $110 million a pop. Adjusted for PPP, it costs around $220 million, meaning that it's around 33% more expensive than the F-22 and around 2-3 times the cost of an F-35. It's guaranteed that against a peer adversary, the J-20 will be outnumbered.

Tactically, then, the J-20 will be best deployed taking out targets of opportunity, such as support aircraft, or small concentrations of enemy fighters. It will have to run from enemy fighters, not necessarily because it's unable to dogfight, because it will be outnumbered.

 

[Blitzo]

People have a confused idea of what an interceptor is. Historically, many fighter aircraft were interceptors, all second-generation jet fighters were either interceptors or fighter-bombers, with an absence of dedicated dogfighters. It's between the third and fourth-generation of fighters that maneuverability / dogfighting came into the fore; when dog-fighting was seen as a key vulnerability for interceptors, the air superiority role was developed, combining the capabilities of an interceptor with that of a dogfighter.

I think most people understand the historical place of interceptors in fighter aircraft, however we are of course all talking about interceptors in the contemporary.

 

[Inst]

And, as I've mentioned before, interceptors can hit and run air superiority aircraft. The difference between an interceptor and an air superiority aircraft is that the air superiority aircraft can also do WVR, but an interceptor may be better than the air superiority aircraft at BVR, depending on the compromises made. Given the massive radome on the MiG-31, for instance, it would probably see an F-15 first if they had the same radar technology, and if equipped with sufficiently capable long-range missiles, could knock out the F-15 before the latter could track it.

 

[PikeCowboy]

I dont think it makes sense to calculate fighter jet cost with adjustment by USD PPP. If it costs a certain RMB, why adjust by PPP?

 

[Inst]

The PPP argument is used because the Chinese GDP is ~60% that of the US's GDP in nominal terms.

You also have to note that the F-35 is being cranked out like hotcakes, while the J-20 hasn't hit full production, and even when it does, the rumor is about 500 by 2025, a fraction of the F-35 that can be deployed in East Asia.

Basically, if the point is that the J-20 is a match for the F-35, it can't be made on the basis that the J-20 is more maneuverable than the F-35, because once you go to WVR both sides are probably going to shoot the other down. It has to be made on the fact that the J-20 is theoretically more capable as a sensor platform, and should have greater speed and altitude than the F-35.

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

You also have to note that the F-35 is being cranked out like hotcakes, while the J-20 hasn't hit full production, and even when it does, the rumor is about 500 by 2025, a fraction of the F-35 that can be deployed in East Asia.

It's not even in full rate production. The numbers delivered have been LRIP batches.
Speed, altitude and maneuver for sure. There is still more to be seen about sensors and communications.

 

[Inst]

LRIP-11 is 142 units. Full rate production was scheduled for 2018.

 

[gelgoog]

I do not expect China to build more J-20s than they have J-11s and other strike Flanker variants. So perhaps 200 or 300 tops.

I also expect J-20 production to be aligned to keep a modicum of parity with stealth resources in the Asian region in range of their territory. At least until the WS-15 engine becomes available. So far all the stealth fighters in the region are in US bases and soon Japan will allegedly buy some, but a lot of them will be the F-35B model which has a poor range and payload capability. It will be mainly used for fleet defense rather than naval strikes IMHO. I think China only needs to take into account the F-22, F-35A/C variants.

To keep the costs down China needs to have a single engine fighter to compose most of its fleet. Like they do now with the J-10 and have a similar ratio high-low combo of airplanes.

Once the WS-15 engine becomes available China should have an engine with similar capabilities to that used in the F-35 which will be suitable for a more cost effective single engine fighter.

 

[Inst]

Problem is, on what time-span? Around 2030, US 6th generation fighters will enter service. With the J-20, it can probably begin mass deployment within the next 5 years, but a smaller "light" model along the lines of the F-35 would take a similar development process and perhaps not be ready until 2025 at the earliest.

China is better off just spamming the heavy J-20 and move on to sixth generation fighters, with the aim of quickly negating US capabilities.

 

[Blitzo]

And, as I've mentioned before, interceptors can hit and run air superiority aircraft. The difference between an interceptor and an air superiority aircraft is that the air superiority aircraft can also do WVR, but an interceptor may be better than the air superiority aircraft at BVR, depending on the compromises made. Given the massive radome on the MiG-31, for instance, it would probably see an F-15 first if they had the same radar technology, and if equipped with sufficiently capable long-range missiles, could knock out the F-15 before the latter could track it.

You're really just preaching to the choir here, I think most people privy to this discussion are aware of the difference in role of interceptors and air superiority fighters, and that the roles lie mostly on a spectrum rather than in categories.