J-15 carrier-borne fighter thread

[Blitzo]

Agreed, but even for this type - and I hope not to derail this thread to far off-topic - we lack almost all: AFAIR we saw one yellow aircraft in February 2021 allegedly in final assembly and later on we only got three images at all. So in fact for a type that is expected to enter service before the J-35 and even more so quite soon, I'm surprised we have almost nothing!

So where are all these J-15B's? Are there in fact none and all my / our expectations are wrong or are they hidden so cleverly?

Deino, do you actually think it's weird that we have so few photos of J-15B?
I actually think it's pretty reasonable, and that really for J-15B the amount of photos that we get is pretty expected and "normal".


If anything, the amount of photos we get for other SAC projects like J-XY/35 and FC-31 is abnormal, in the sense that it is abnormally much given by SAC standards.


I.e.: to answer your question, I think they are not "cleverly hidden" but rather that our expectations for how many photos we should actually expect has been made too luxurious based on the amount of photos we get for other projects.

We should be grateful that we even have one or two photos of J-15B over the years, IMO, because that is probably the "normal" amount of photos we should be getting for most projects on average from SAC.
If anything, we should be surprised we've had so many photos of J-XY/35!

 

[Deino]

Deino, do you actually think it's weird that we have so few photos of J-15B?
I actually think it's pretty reasonable, and that really for J-15B the amount of photos that we get is pretty expected and "normal".


If anything, the amount of photos we get for other SAC projects like J-XY/35 and FC-31 is abnormal, in the sense that it is abnormally much given by SAC standards.


I.e.: to answer your question, I think they are not "cleverly hidden" but rather that our expectations for how many photos we should actually expect has been made too luxurious based on the amount of photos we get for other projects.

We should be grateful that we even have one or two photos of J-15B over the years, IMO, because that is probably the "normal" amount of photos we should be getting for most projects on average from SAC.
If anything, we should be surprised we've had so many photos of J-XY/35!

Well, on the one hand I agree and my disappointment is largely driven by my impatience, as such like you say in mind of what to expect by SAC it's quite fine. However; we also have NO information at all on J-15Bs at any other NAS via satellite images, and that's what concerns me.

 

[Blitzo]

Well, on the one hand I agree and my disappointment is largely driven by my impatience, as such like you say in mind of what to expect by SAC it's quite fine. However; we also have NO information at all on J-15Bs at any other NAS via satellite images, and that's what concerns me.

In our role I don't think we are allowed to be impatient lol.
Rather, we gratefully accept any small tidbits and morsels that the PLA and Chinese photographers choose to reveal, and we dare not ask for more.

But in seriousness, I think in our role (and especially yourself as someone that's got a higher profile on Twitter), we need to be careful about expressing things which may not actually reflect our actual assessments.
For example, expressing personal impatience at the lack of J-15B photos may be interpreted by people as believing that the lack of J-15B photos actually is abnormal or reflects something with the program... whereas in reality the lack of J-15B pictures is fully normal and expected.



As for satellite pictures of J-15B -- they would basically be impossible to identify on satellite images compared to STOBAR J-15As. The only way of identifying J-15B from a J-15 from satellite in theory, would be if an airframe was found lined up with the land based catapult at Huangdicun (which would suggest it may be a J-15B), but that land based catapult facility doesn't seem like much is going on there in the last few years anyway.

Meaning if it's based on satellite images of J-15 airframes in general, naturally we cannot tell if J-15s are STOBAR J-15As or new CATOBAR J-15Bs.



... taking me back to the point that the lack of J-15B photos is entirely reasonable and expected.
No new photos/minimal new photos should be seen by us as the "normal situation" IMO.

 

[Maikeru]

Well I'm not a public figure in PLA watching so I am going to idly speculate that maybe J35 development has gone so well and fast that PLAN decided to sack off the J15B (except maybe the EW variant) and go with all-J35 for future air wings.

 

[pipaster]

Well I'm not a public figure in PLA watching so I am going to idly speculate that maybe J35 development has gone so well and fast that PLAN decided to slack off the J15B (except maybe the EW variant) and go with all-J35 for future air wings.

It could be also that they are seeing a large non stealthy front line fighter won't be effective against most peer adversaries. They may have changed the project in light of this, much like the J-11D.

The J-15 though was/is definitely a useful platform to do the original catapult launch testing with, and maybe for a J-16/D like capabilities too.

 

[SAC]

Well I'm not a public figure in PLA watching so I am going to idly speculate that maybe J35 development has gone so well and fast that PLAN decided to sack off the J15B (except maybe the EW variant) and go with all-J35 for future air wings.

While you may end up being correct, I would be very surprised if this is the case. Too many operational requirements that are better satisfied by a J-15 evolution.

 

[Maikeru]

While you may end up being correct, I would be very surprised if this is the case. Too many operational requirements that are better satisfied by a J-15 evolution.

That may be so but you also gain the benefit of simplified logistics and training by going to a single type. As pipaster notes, J15B may simply not be credible going forward (same for F/A18E/F).

 

[Deino]

... taking me back to the point that the lack of J-15B photos is entirely reasonable and expected.
No new photos/minimal new photos should be seen by us as the "normal situation" IMO.

But what are your expectations? When do you think will the J-15B (cat-capable variant) be revealed and how?

Will they just some day show a full regiment and tell us it has all been in service since some time and now is ready for the Fujian?

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

I'm thinking that the J-15+J-35 duo for the PLAN could be synonymous to the J-16+J-20 duo for the PLAAF. Which means, we could see both the J-15s and J-35s appearing on the flight decks of Chinese CVs simultaneously for quite a while.

Roles-wise:

On one hand, the J-15s will stick closer to PLAN CSGs, thus staying within the protection of CAP by allied fighters and SAM cover by allied warships. In the meantime, thanks to their much larger size (therefore greater payload capacity) and their ability to absolutely disregard the need for stealth, the J-15s can either carry one large AShM (YJ-21) or multiple long-range AAMs (PL-15, PL-17, PL-21), and launch then against enemy warships and/or warplanes at huge standoff distances.

On the other hand, the J-35s will venture further out from PLAN CSGs to intercept and engage enemy warplanes and AShMs which threatens allied warships, relying on stealth to get closer to the enemy while enhancing survivability. The J-35s can also rely on their sensing and networking capabilities to detect enemy warplanes and/or warships, alongside providing target illumination and guidance for allied SAMs and AShMs to strike/intercept enemy units.

 

[Deino]

I'm actually thinking that the J-15+J-35 duo for the PLAN could be synonymous to the J-16+J-20 duo for the PLAAF. Which means, we could see both the J-15s and J-35s appearing on the flight decks of Chinese CVs simultaneously for quite a while.

...

Yes ... but WHEN!??? I think at least when the sea-trials for the types will begin off the Fujian, they no longer can hide them in the way SAC can keep them secret. However until then they must be ready of some sort from land-based based like Huangdicun and at least per my estimation this must be already going on at least for the J-15B or whatever it will be called.