But what are your expectations? When do you think will the J-15B (cat-capable variant) be revealed and how?
Will they just some day show a full regiment and tell us it has all been in service since some time and now is ready for the Fujian?
I think that would be one of the more extreme reveals on the spectrum of possibility.
I personally think a likely outcome is that our first clear pictures or videos of J-15B will be when the first aviation trials for CV-18 occurs (late 2023, early 2024), and they may choose to reveal the first arrested landings and catapult takeoffs from CV-18 shortly after it is done, and I expect J-15B to have first dibs on that, though it is possible J-XY/35 may do so.
I think we should also keep in mind that J-15B is likely still in testing and likely didn't make its first flight much earlier than J-XY/35.
A better question might be "at what stage should we start be asking questions about J-15B" -- and in my opinion if in 2025 we still don't have any pictures or videos of J-15Bs either in flight testing with CV-18, or nil evidence of any indications of early low rate production of J-15B, while simultaneously having evidence of those things for J-XY/35, then that would be a basis to start wondering where J-15B is.
But as it stands, we have numerous photos of J-15B in testing (albeit low quality), and for an aircraft which likely only flew in 2021, is not unreasonable.