Israeli preparing for 'all out' war (Ground Invasion)

"United Nations staff estimate around 15,000 people have fled to 23 U.N.-run schools they have turned into makeshift refuges. U.N. food aid has halted in the northern Gaza Strip because officials fear residents would risk their lives to reach distribution centers."

"...800,000 residents in Gaza City and northern parts of the territory had no access to running water from Tuesday.”

“Hamas is believed to have 20,000 fighters.”

“...used on the Palestinians, including the GBU-39 missile -- a new bunker-buster weapon. Israel received 1,000 missiles of this type in early December in addition to the 3 billion dollars a year in US military aid, including F-16 fighters and Apache helicopters and the fuel and spare parts needed to keep them in operation.”

"On the night of November 4, the day of the US election, Israel fired missiles on Gaza."

"Israel is told that mortar shells and rockets (some seventy to a hundred a day) are meaningless when compared with its military might – a single F16 warplane up above that annihilates Gaza."

"More than 640 people have been killed and 2800 others wounded in the 11-day operation..."

"Four Israeli soldiers were killed and 24 wounded in battles around Gaza City on Monday night, the Israeli military said early on Tuesday, bringing the Israeli death toll to eight."

"...a protest in Tel Aviv drew 10,000 people..."

"In our homes, we are watching 24-hour TV."

"The phone number that the Israeli army text-messaged to Gazans asking for information about Hamas is sent to West Bank mobiles, with the request to jam the line with threats and hoax calls. Email boxes are crammed with requests from West Bank aid organisations that are desperately trying to get medical and food supplies into Gaza."

"Israel appears closer to ground maneuver"







Question1: How much ability to win does each side have?
Question2: Does this look like the same event as in the past?

Question1: How much ability to win does each side have?
The IDF should win. But Hamas will declare victory no matter what occurs.

Question2: Does this look like the same event as in the past?
Yes.

Question3: What will Obama do?
Don't know. He has no track record in World affairs.

Question4: What will Bush do?
Nothing but pass the ball to Obama. His job is ending in two weeks.

bd popeye said:

Question1: How much ability to win does each side have?
The IDF should win. But Hamas will declare victory no matter what occurs.

Question2: Does this look like the same event as in the past?
Yes.

Question3: What will Obama do?
Don't know. He has no track record in World affairs.

Question4: What will Bush do?
Nothing but pass the ball to Obama. His job is ending in two weeks.

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Can't Bush or Obama threaten to cut off military/financial aid to Israel if they don't call a cease fire?

swimmerXC said:

Can't Bush or Obama threaten to cut off military/financial aid to Israel if they don't call a cease fire?

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no they wont go that far, at least not openly. its like abandoning your ally and root for the enemy. the best case scenario is for the US to somehow make israel feel that its gained something from this incursion and just retreat.

alwaysfresh said:

Question1: How much ability to win does each side have?
Question2: Does this look like the same event as in the past?

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In answer to Question 1, the Israelis have the military means to win the conflict, the real question is whether or not they have the will.

Like the US and NATO, the Israelis are more sensitive to casualties than their opponents. They have no desire to reoccupy Gaza. They just withdrew from that hell hole not so many years ago. Based on the published reports that I have seen, the Israelis will be looking for a cease-fire that also includes a monitoring mechanism that eliminates the tunnels used to smuggle arms between Egypt and Gaza. They will then likely declare "victory" (as will Hamas), and withdraw.

As for Question 2, the Israelis appear to have learned their lessons from the 2006 Lebanon War.

In 2006, there were those that thought that Israel could achieve their goals against Hezbollah using air power alone. This time, they were better organized, and followed the air campaign with a ground invasion after the first week of fighting.

Also this time around, the Israelis have been more careful regarding their choice of weapons. In 2006, for example, the Israeli Air Force banned the use of cluster munitions, but the Israeli Artillery Corps did not. This time around, neither their Air Force nor their Artillery Corps have been allowed to use cluster munitions. In 2006, coordination between infantry and armour was poor. This time around, armour, infantry, air and naval power all appear to be in sync.

swimmerXC said:

Can't Bush or Obama threaten to cut off military/financial aid to Israel if they don't call a cease fire?

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Neither Bush nor Obama are going to threaten to cut off any aid to Israel. This is because the US has already reserved the right to take exactly the same military steps if faced with a similar situation. Since 2001 Hamas has launched over 3,000 rockets, and over 2,500 artillery shells from Gaza into Israel. This was on top of the suicide bombings that didn't stop until Israel erected walls and barracades around the West Bank and Gaza, starting in 2004.

The most recent cease-fire between Israel and Hamas (which was never fully enforced) really broke down in November when Hamas and Islamic Jihad launched a total of 126 rockets into Israel. The cease-fire, such as it was, officially ran out on December 19th. After the US invasion of Afghanistan, it's very difficult for the US to complain when the Israelis decide to invade Gaza.

The Egyptians warned Hamas not to end the cease-fire, and not to renew rocket attacks. Hamas just wouldn't listen. This brand of Islamic extremism has undermined decades of diplomatic efforts and brought nothing but misery to the people of Gaza. The sooner that these crazy religious nuts are kicked out of power, the sooner that diplomacy can be given a chance.

I, actually, am suprised that the Egypt - Gaza border doesn't seem to be a primary goal of the Israeli plan.
Controlling that ground would actually give Israel the opportunity to really cut off Hamas from supply by blocking all possible tunnel routes.
Apperently those tunnels were alread targets of intense attacks. But I still think the IDF will move in and occupy a strip a few hundred meters wide just next to the egyptian border to destroy all tunnels and prevent rebuilding.
The part in Rafah will be tricky, though. Afterwards they'd have to stay there until someone else takes over.

"More than 3,080 people have also been wounded."

"Israel has cut the northern part of Gaza from the southern part. Those in the southern part wouldn't be able to go to the north seeking refuge and vice versa,"

"Rockets from Lebanon hit Israel"

"At least three rockets landed in the town of Nahariya, about 8km south of the Lebanese border."

"Lebanon is home to more than 400,000 Palestinian refugees."

"Iran has sternly warned Israel for the dangerous consequences from a ground offensive into the Gaza strip as its protests against the sustained Israeli...."

"...Iran is mulling over a military option in the Gaza conflict to further boost its traditional force of influence and impact in Gaza affairs, in a bid to contend with the U.S., said a Middle East Media commentary"

"11 days of Israeli bombardment"







"Israel's National Security Cabinet met on Wednesday morning for discussions on whether to expand the ongoing offensive or opt for a truce. Should the former be approved, Israel would possibly send tens of thousands of reserve soldiers into Gaza to bash the Islamist movement."

"On the Israeli side, 10 have been killed so far, including six soldiers fallen in the battlefield."

"Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul Tuesday denied reports that an arms deal was signed between Turkey and Israel ahead of the Gaza operation,"

"In fighting Tuesday, more than 30 Palestinians were killed in the Israeli air strikes, shelling from tanks and naval bombardments, reports said. Only two of the dead were confirmed as militants."

"...some rockets' range exceeded 50 kilometers, and hit far Israeli cities like Ashdod and Beer Sheva."

"13-day offensive against Hamas."

"Hezbollah denied it was responsible for the attack..Hezbollah, which claims to have up to 40,000 rockets in southern Lebanon"



"Israel launched 60 air strikes on the Gaza Strip overnight, targeting facilities used by the militant Hamas group. Some media reports said Israeli bombs had targeted around 300 tunnels on the Egyptian border used by Hamas to smuggle arms and other supplies. Israeli tanks were also reported to be advancing on the town of Khan Younis."

"Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah warns "all possibilities" open against Israel."

"The Israeli army says three of its soldiers were killed when hit by "friendly" tank fire."

"Israeli forces surround Gaza City. Witnesses say Israel controls a key highway, cutting the territory in half."

"al-Quds Brigades, the Islamic Jihad's armed wing, issued a statement, saying it fired two anti-armor mortar-shells at an Israeli Naval ship"

"Israel fires five rockets into Lebanon"

"Hezbollah Secretary General Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah said Lebanon's response to an Israeli incursion would go beyond that of the 33-day war in 2006."





"Schools in southern Lebanese towns bordering Israel were closed on Thursday out of fear of aerial Israeli attacks."

"Following the firing, the Israeli army fired five rockets on Hamra, al- Jiben, and Tayr Harfa towns in southern Lebanon, from where the rockets were believed to have been launched. However they landed on desert areas causing no damage or casualties."



"around 100 people in her community were lining up for fresh water outside a local grocery store Wednesday. "We were only allowed half a gallon each"



" Israel allowed in 80 trucks of supplies as well as industrial fuel for Gaza's power plant"

"Israel released footage of suspected Hamas militants captured by Israeli troops. Israel's chief army spokesman, Brig. Gen. Avi Benayahu, said 120 suspected militants have been captured"



"After 12 days of "combat," the Israeli Defense Forces reported that more than 1,000 targets were shelled or bombed."

Q1: How would Hezbollah change the current status?

Q2: In 2006 the capture of two Israeli soldiers sparked a response aimed at ending Hizbullah and now there is a response in ending Hamas. How different is this battle?

Apparently the Israelis opened fire on a UN humanitarian aid convoy, killing at least one person. These trucks were marked with UN insignias and said "UN" on them apparently. Now obviously that is a condemnable thing to do, but moreover I must ask HOW could that happen? We've all seen gun camera footage from attack helicopters UAVs and the like, and you would definitely be able to tell that those trucks were UN trucks. If this was done by ground troops, then the same holds true. It seems to me that this mistake is almost too huge to make, it must have been at least semi-on purpose.

alwaysfresh said:

"Schools in southern Lebanese towns bordering Israel were closed on Thursday out of fear of aerial Israeli attacks."

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Uh...those are US Air Force F-22 Raptors flying over the deserts of the western United States.

They are not involved with or anywhere near the hostilities. Including them in a story about this conflict is very much out of place.

Finn MCcool said:

Apparently the Israelis opened fire on a UN humanitarian aid convoy, killing at least one person. These trucks were marked with UN insignias and said "UN" on them apparently. Now obviously that is a condemnable thing to do, but moreover I must ask HOW could that happen? We've all seen gun camera footage from attack helicopters UAVs and the like, and you would definitely be able to tell that those trucks were UN trucks. If this was done by ground troops, then the same holds true. It seems to me that this mistake is almost too huge to make, it must have been at least semi-on purpose.

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Finn, friendly fire happens with ones own forces, despite all sorts of technological efforts to keep it from happening. Although the incident of it happening, particularly with Western forces that are more technologically advanced, have been reduced considerably, it is still a tragic but very real aspect of modern warfare.

My guess it that this is exactly what it was...a tragic mistake on a very busy and sometimes confusing battlefield. But a battlefield Israel feels it must engage in for its own protection, and one Hamas and their leadership are engaging in (and have been for a long time) based on their goals for the destruction of Israel.

Jeff Head said:

Finn, friendly fire happens with ones own forces, despite all sorts of technological efforts to keep it from happening. Although the incident of it happening, particularly with Western forces that are more technologically advanced, have been reduced considerably, it is still a tragic but very real aspect of modern warfare.

My guess it that this is exactly what it was...a tragic mistake on a very busy and sometimes confusing battlefield. But a battlefield Israel feels it must engage in for its own protection, and one Hamas and their leadership are engaging in (and have been for a long time) based on their goals for the destruction of Israel.

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I suppose that is true, but I am less and less willing to give Israel the benefit of the doubt with regards to extraordinary incidents of civilian casualties like this one. It seems to me that this incident at least shows that Israel is not doing EVERYTHING it can to prevent civilian casualties, or even everything within reason (i.e. I don't expect the IDF to clear out a building on foot if they're likely to suffer casualties in process just because it might save civilian lives instead of bombing it)...I suppose what I am trying to say is that the fact that this incident happened shows the IDF is NOT taking necessary precautions. I'm sure they're taking some precautions, but the could be doing more.

The media coverage does often fail to note that at least half of the Palestinians killed so far have been combatants. And due to the nature of the battlefield civilian casualties were bound to be high regardless. However given the nature of this battle the IDF should be taking more precautions and showing more restraint than they apparently are.