Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)
- Thread starter phrozenflame
- Start date
Sure.
Iran has to retaliate to maintain strategic deterrence. It wouldn’t make sense that Iran retaliated against Israel for the bombing of the consulate in Damascus or the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh(someone who is Sunni and not Iranian) but not for Israeli air strikes on Iranian soil that led to the deaths of 5 Iranian soldiers. It wouldn’t be good for Iranian morale and it would allow Israel to bomb Iran again in the future. Ayatollah Khamenei said it best that the days of strategic patience are over. I’m willing to bet Iran is waiting for the signage of the military strategic partnership with Russia is signed before they strike Israel. Iran doesn’t really care whether Trump is in power or not they have to maintain strategic deterrence.
It's a big retreat and Hezbollah gets to return it's artillery to the border unimpeded and keep fire support to assist Palestine. In exchange, Israel only got to move it's troops back without being shelled as they retreat.
It's neither a strategic nor tactical victory but it shows a sober mindset among Israel command and will increase the pressure on Gaza. Like I wouldn't say the Russian retreat from Kiev was a victory for Russia, but it was a move made to preempt taking losses that might jeopardise the war and lets their military fight in a more optimal battlefield, and ultimately might play a role in a final victory later.
The campaign to defend Palestine continues with no end in sight, Israel having the sobriety to pull back early from unfavorable fronts is imho a poor prognosis indicator for Palestine, it shows that they're able to think tactically.
I believe that this is a good deal for Hezbollah.
For me the main point is defending the sovereignty of Lebanon. Hezbollah succeeded in bogging Israel down in Lebanon, and Israel will now withdraw. If Israel keeps the terms of the deal.
As for Gaza, to be frank there was and is nothing that Hezbollah can do to force Israel to stop committing crimes against humanity. Previously Hezbollah was firing rockets at mostly empty land in northern Israel. There was zero impact on Israeli national power. Suicides kill ten times more Israelis than those rockets.
So now Hezbollah doesn't fire rockets at northern Israel, which were doing nothing anyways. Hezbollah defended Palestine and made Israel pay a minor price. It never had the power to stop Israel's crimes against humanity, but it tried its best. In the eyes of God, Hezbollah will be reckoned amongst the righteous.
For me the main point is defending the sovereignty of Lebanon. Hezbollah succeeded in bogging Israel down in Lebanon, and Israel will now withdraw. If Israel keeps the terms of the deal.
As for Gaza, to be frank there was and is nothing that Hezbollah can do to force Israel to stop committing crimes against humanity. Previously Hezbollah was firing rockets at mostly empty land in northern Israel. There was zero impact on Israeli national power. Suicides kill ten times more Israelis than those rockets.
So now Hezbollah doesn't fire rockets at northern Israel, which were doing nothing anyways. Hezbollah defended Palestine and made Israel pay a minor price. It never had the power to stop Israel's crimes against humanity, but it tried its best. In the eyes of God, Hezbollah will be reckoned amongst the righteous.
Fajr rockets hit Haifa
Hermes-450 drone over Lebanon shot down
Horrible idea imo. Nobody should trust Israel with a pause or ceasefire. They broke the ceasefire in Gaza and also this current one by bombing Lebanon again today. Hezbollah moves to Syria = IDF steamrolls Lebanon.
Not necessarily. Israel pulling out of Lebanon front also means that Hezbollah has more freedom to attack from the north - the exact reason why IDF went to Lebanon border in the first place. It also means domestic pressure on Israel gets worse due to the settlers who fled the north. The main propaganda theme running in Israel when IDF moved to Lebanon was "we will destroy Hezbollah and settlers will return to the north". That certainly isn't happening now.
Are you unaware of the fact that most of northern Israeli settlements were emptied out due to Hezbollah firing almost a year ago? Big chunk of the population was internally displaced.
Does anyone have more info on ETIM terrorists and their current status in the Syrian civil war? And what's China's response to their terrorists hiding in the middle east.
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it does not matter if they keep firing at the northern settlements or not, because none of the settlers will return. It is a 60 day ceasefire without physical destruction of their long range strike capabilities nor setting up of forward observer posts inside their territory. Therefore, there is the risk, even if the ceasefire is adhered to strictly, that fighting resumes after 60 days.
No one would ever risk their life and wealth buying or renting in a place that could be struck in 60 days. It isn't enough time to find a job. Unless the government pays people to live there, or a treaty is signed, those settlements are never coming back.
That doesn't matter much, though, as we have seen in over 60 years of COIN operations, the "Global War on Terror" and similar similar shitshows, though.
Killing military leaders matter, there's a reason even the nazis didn't waste time trying to kill FDG, Churchill or Chiang. All that would have led to is increased recruitment.
Besides Sinwar, the defenders have not really lost any major commanders, that loss is however something that sets them back a bit.