Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
Because Iran doesn’t want a full blown war.

Israel forced this Iranian attack as it has repeatedly demonstrated that it just doesn’t respect diplomacy and will keep pushing you unless you push back.

This is Iran pushing back with more force and consequence. But ultimately Iran doesn’t want a full blown war with Israel, which is why this attack was very focused on legitimate military targets rather than maximum damage as Israeli attacks have been in Gaza and Lebanon.

I think this is the last such warning and off ramp before war becomes inevitable. The first attack was a warning shot, this was the equivalent of deliberately giving a flesh wound. There are no further steps before you are fighting for real.

Iran wants Israel to take the off ramp, so it’s not doing follow up attacks. But if Israel strikes back hard, then there is no remaining opportunities left to avert a full blown war.

Fortunately, Israeli long range strike capabilities are surprisingly pathetic. So it needs active and massive US logistical support to allow it to reach Iranian soil with anything remotely approaching meaningful force, so America does have something approaching a veto. The big question is whether Biden decides to use it or not.

In a way, Biden getting soft coup’d out of running for re-election has strengthened his hand massively in his ability to stand up to the Israeli lobby, since he literally has nothing left to loose that they can leverage him with. So for a rare change, a sitting US president can make a let ME strategy decision based primarily on what is best for American national interests as opposed to Israel’s.

But then Biden having nothing left to loose also makes him dangerous and unpredictable if he wants some payback at Harris and co for couping him.
I'm talking more about Hezbollah. Iran is not at war yet, but Hezbollah for all intents and purposes is. Why are they not following up Iran's missile strikes with their own actions on the invading IDF force? They did throw some missiles and rockets at Mossad and IDF earlier. So why didn't they do more of it right after that Iranian bombardment? It can't be that Iran told them to not do it. They are already under attack by the IDF.
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
Even if their inherent desire is to capitalize on the opportunity to cut the head off the snake, per se, their leadership must've realized by now that the economic and societal implications of an all-out war with Iran + Hezbollah + Hamas might not justify the ends.

Thing is, I think Netanyahu is perfectly willing to have Israel stop existing as long as he avoids jail and gets to keep his money. It is part of the reason why things are the way they are right now.
 

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
Once the motors cuts out it cannot be tracked by IR - detecting the plume is not tracking the bus. It can only be tracked by radar if it rises above the local radar horizon. Russian ICBMs are specifically designed for a very short boost phase to minimize the time that IR satellites can track the motor burn and cue radars.

There's a reason why China strongly opposed THAAD in South Korea and built new silos outside of the northeast.
This is wrong. SM-3 performs a kinetic kill via collision in space using an imaging infra red seeker. This is will after the missile burn has completed.
 

coolgod

Major
Registered Member
In a way, Biden getting soft coup’d out of running for re-election has strengthened his hand massively in his ability to stand up to the Israeli lobby, since he literally has nothing left to loose that they can leverage him with. So for a rare change, a sitting US president can make a let ME strategy decision based primarily on what is best for American national interests as opposed to Israel’s.

But then Biden having nothing left to loose also makes him dangerous and unpredictable if he wants some payback at Harris and co for couping him.
I mean Biden is still alive after his presidency, he's got a lot to lose, including his only son Hunter. If he doesn't follow the lobby, an impeachment is the least of his concerns.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
I do hope that the Ayatollah and his loyalists had been busy cleaning house, for his own sake, and his nation's security.
got some bad news for you then
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Former President Ahmadinejad claims Iran's anti-Israel intel unit infiltrated by Mossad
"Israel organized complex operations inside Iran. They could quickly obtain information," the former hardline president told CNN Turk.

"In Iran, they are still silent about this. The man who was in charge of the unit in Iran against Israel - was an Israeli agent."
He claimed that another 20 Israeli intelligence assets were in the force, passing on information about Iran's nuclear programme.
lol
 

Proton

Junior Member
Registered Member
Thing is, I think Netanyahu is perfectly willing to have Israel stop existing as long as he avoids jail and gets to keep his money. It is part of the reason why things are the way they are right now.
Bullocks, politcally Israelis are essentially on a scale from ultra-fascist (the left) to Nazi (the right/far right).

Netanyahu is on the Nazi-side of this spectrum, aiming at conquering as much land as possible while getting rid of their native inhabitants. He couldn't care less about himself; he only cares for the prospect of lebensraum.
 

CaribouTruth

New Member
Registered Member
I'm talking more about Hezbollah. Iran is not at war yet, but Hezbollah for all intents and purposes is. Why are they not following up Iran's missile strikes with their own actions on the invading IDF force? They did throw some missiles and rockets at Mossad and IDF earlier. So why didn't they do more of it right after that Iranian bombardment? It can't be that Iran told them to not do it. They are already under attack by the IDF.
The Israeli gag order is pretty tight, there's some noise since a few hours ago about a "mass casualty event" on the South Lebanon front with quite a few soldiers getting medevac to Rambam hospital but not much info on it. I think there's some movement going on we're just not privy to it.
 

Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
Nothing would make my heart more warm. But unfortunately, this will never happen. Because that old bag hag khamenei is biggest western asset with nuke haram bs. Take him out tonight ,ahmadinejad 2.0 takes charge.

Tomorrow morning 10 AM sharp, "Iran tests nuke" would be the headline you would be watching.
Can't blame someone for wanting to keep his nation nuclear free. But he can't be naive for too long. At this stage of the Israel-Iran confrontation, Iran is gonna wish it had nukes.

I could already imagine Netanyahu's glee if the Ayatollah is killed. I'm afraid that a civil war in Iran is just as likely as the rise of an Ahmadinejad 2.0. Because there are too many pro-West fifth columns in Iran who will come out of the woodwork and try to take over the nation. So love him or hate him, his immediate death is not necessarily a good thing for the anti-Zionist resistance.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Can't blame someone for wanting to keep his nation nuclear free. But he can't be naive for too long. At this stage of the Israel-Iran confrontation, Iran is gonna wish it had nukes.

If the Ayatollah is killed, I'm afraid a civil war is just as likely as the rise of an Ahmadinejad 2.0. Because there are too many pro-West fifth columns in Iran who will come out of the woodwork and try to take over the nation. So love him or hate him, his immediate death is not necessarily a good thing for the anti-Zionist resistance.
Iran's only way out in the short/medium/long term is getting cover from Russia's nuclear umbrella. That's it.
All the other ways are just a mirage
 
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