Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)

plawolf said:

I think the big question now is if Israel is angry and stupid enough to rush into Gaza quickly, or if they will just sit back and bomb them from afar while also starving them of basically everything but air.

The smart play from the Israelis would be to sit back and let logistics do the heavy lifting. It will create a humanitarian catastrophe, but without power and communications, the Israelis can effectively defer much of the world’s outrange until after its all over if it can keep videos from coming out of Gaza while the population die off en mass from thirst, starvation and disease.

The fear of such a move is probably why Hamas has taken so many Israeli hostages, to try to force Israel’s hand in moving in on the ground sooner rather than later.

Hamas is hoping that the need to free the hostages, and the daily rain of missiles that Iron Dome cannot fully deal with, will force Israeli into going in on the ground. In this, they seem to have the most unexpected allies, because Israeli politicians and even military commanders seem to have fully drank the Kool Aid on the myth of Israeli military invincibility and seem to want to send in the tanks ASAP to win back some of the face they lost earlier.

But if the Israelis do go in on the ground in a rush, they will seriously risk suffering an even more humiliating humbling by Hamas. Not only would Hamas still be near to full strength, the Israelis might learn to their cost that their called up reservists are little better than the Russian mobliks they love to mock despite their mandatory military service, when pulled from civilian life with little to no refresher training after years or even decades since they did their mandatory service, and with poor equipment and depleted logistics due to support for Ukraine.

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Mandatory military service means that your soldiers have watered down skills and reduced resources per head. It is a bit like the Weisuo system during Ming Dynasty, but without the benefit of the soldiers farming/feeding themselves to reduce cost.

FriedButter said:

Israel amasses 100,000 reserve troops near Gaza

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More being called up. I doubt they intend to sit back and do the long way of slowly depriving Gaza.

Israel drafts 300,000 reservists as it goes on the offensive​

JERUSALEM, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Israel has drafted a record 300,000 reservists in its response to a multi-front Hamas attack from Gaza and is "going on the offensive," the chief military spokesperson said on Monday.

Since Saturday's surprise assault, Israeli aircraft have been pounding Gaza targets while its ground forces have battled to retake control of border villages and towns overrun by Palestinian gunmen.

Chief military spokesperson Rear-Admiral Daniel Hagari said control of those communities had been re-established but that isolated clashes continued as some gunmen remained active.

"We are now carrying out searches in all of the communities and clearing the area," he said in a televised briefing.

Military officials had previously said that their focus was on securing Israel's side of the border before carrying out any major escalation of the counter-offensive in Gaza.

Hagari said 300,000 reservists have been called up by the military since Saturday, a number suggesting preparations for a possible invasion - though any such plans have not been officially confirmed.

"We have never drafted so many reservists on such a scale," he said. "We are going on the offensive."

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sunnymaxi said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711362522429927701

BREAKING NEWS - Saudi Arabia ends "all negotiations" on normalization with Israel. Saudi Arabia informed US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that they are ceasing all talks on the normalization of relations with Israel - Jerusalem Post.

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Has this tweet been withdrawn? I can't find any indications corroborating it and the evil empire just published this cautious wait and see piece instead

In recent months, Mr. Biden and his top aides have attempted to negotiate with both Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel a complex three-way normalization deal by the end of the year. The new war will

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, but U.S. officials have been telling Saudi and Israeli officials in calls over the weekend that they are hopeful the discussions can continue.

They are also watching Saudi reaction carefully and gauging whether Prince Mohammed might change his stance, especially if the Israeli military kills many Palestinian civilians in a Gaza offensive, which would ignite outrage across the Arab world.

On Saturday, after the Hamas assault, the Saudi Foreign Ministry released a statement that did not explicitly denounce the attack and instead laid the blame on Israel, saying that the Saudi government had repeatedly warned “of the dangers of the explosion of the situation as a result of the continued occupation, the deprivation of the Palestinian people and their legitimate rights and the repetition of systemic provocations against its sanctities.”

The statement took Mr. Biden and several of his top aides by surprise, people with knowledge of the events said, and it angered American lawmakers who have supported the negotiations.

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Janiz said:

This pretty well known fact. Last year they were trained in Kaliningrad and usually they're trained in Russian bases in Syria. What's so sensational there? Russians probably supplies them with Western made weapons that they got in Ukraine and is pretty much useless for them as the numbers are small but can be used by Hamas.

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"Well known"?
Except Hamas is aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood.

Israel has blocked the Gaza Strip. Violence begets violence, this is the only way to characterize the situation in Israel and the Gaza Strip now. Israel is shelling residential areas in the Gaza Strip, Hamas is shelling residential areas in Israel. It is worth noting that Israeli strikes are more targeted, since they have modern weapons, but civilians in the Gaza Strip still suffer. Hamas uses homemade weapons, their accuracy is extremely low. Previously, Israel notified residents of the Gaza Strip about attacks on specific buildings, using the “Knock on the Roof” protocol to reduce the number of casualties, first launching a rocket at a target without a warhead, or notifying local residents with leaflets or SMS. This protocol has now been cancelled. The number of victims at the music festival became known, 260 people were killed, among them many citizens of other countries; why Hamas did this is not clear. Many people ask whether there will be sanctions against Israel, no, there will not be, since such actions of Hamas are condemned by the international community. Now regarding the situation, the Gaza Strip is blocked by the Israeli army, there is no electricity and no water supply. According to estimates from the ground, the Israeli army is displacing Hamas forces from the occupied territories, but in street battles, the Israeli army has significant losses. Hamas began to use MANPADS and homemade air defense systems, which made it difficult for Israeli aviation. Now people are trying to leave Israel; at Ben Gurion International Airport, which came under Hamas fire, chaos can be said to be happening. If you look at things realistically, Hamas will not be able to win this war, but the Gaza Strip will most likely now leave many residents and it will cease to be Palestinian territory. The Israeli leadership announced that there would be no negotiations with Hamas and that it would be destroyed.

Maikeru said:

Presumably Hezbollah has large numbers of Iranian U(C)AV as well.

The key question now is which way Hezbollah will jump. I expect a lot of their troops and commanders are thinking "If not now, when? If not now, what are we for?" I expect them to enter the war once IDF enters Gaza and gets bogged down in street fighting.

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Hezbollah is for defending the Shias of Lebanon, not the Palestinians. Fighting for Assad achieves that aim, bringing war with Israel to Lebanon does not. I don't think Iran or others are going to get involved, for similar reasons. And Israel would be very silly to attack another country right now while they're busy with Hamas

However, many "volunteers" might arrive and support the Palestinians. Maybe the Egyptians will look the other way when supplies and maybe people are going through the tunnels into Gaza

Janiz said:

Russians probably supplies them with Western made weapons that they got in Ukraine and is pretty much useless for them as the numbers are small but can be used by Hamas.

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I distinctly remembered that CBS News report that traced only 30% of western weapons made it to the frontlines. Then it got taken down after Ukraine threw a huge tantrum. Trying to blame Russia for everything is stupid.

Minm said:

Israel would be very silly to attack another country right now while they're busy with Hamas

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Well they went from "Iran did this" to "we haven't seen evidence of Iranian involvement" in no time.And no, I'm not talking about blinky's statement here. Israelis said it.

BREAKING NEWS - IDF instructs Israelis to prepare for 3-day stay in bomb shelters/secure rooms, ensure supply of food, water, battery-run devices in case power is down. This is a clear indication of imminent escalation into larger war...

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BREAKING: The Israeli ground invasion into Gaza will start tonight..