correct, israel's line of thinking is likely that we are never going to get to mobilize like this ever again, might as well take all that we can. problem is hezbollah is likely ready by now, and the israeli forces are likely exhausted with no significant reserves available to rotate.
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and other Related Conflicts in the Middle East (read the rules in the first post)
- Thread starter phrozenflame
- Start date
Mods can I finally respond without having my original comments deleted.
Last time I checked SDF is still a public forum.
I seriously doubt the effect of aerial bombardment on a force that is prepared for it. Dispersion, years of tunnel digging and underground stockpile of supplies...etc
The most influential Jew of the 20th century, Schneerson, who was also the most famous religious figure in Israel and mentor of Netanyahu, said that Netanyahu would be the last prime minister of Israel before the arrival of the Meschiach.
You cannot cure a disease by treating the symptom. If Hezbollah is neutralized, another group will take it's place.
The strategic objective is to routinely create carnage in the territories of unfriendly neighbors, so they don't ever get powerful enough to challenge Israel on Israeli territory. Seems to have worked well for Israel (to keep it's territorial integrity mostly intact).
The real tragedy for Israel would be if Hezbollah or other groups exhaust IDF and push the war into Israel's borders.
Then it will never work. It assumes the local economy supports war effort. It can get foriegn stocks. Hezbolah can launch rockets on Israel at any time regardless of whether IDF is invading.
Hezbollah is already launching rockets into Israel (as has Hamas and Houthis), but the level of damage incurred in Israel from foreign missile attacks isn't as serious as would incur from an external invasion, and is quickly repairable. For example, if Israel suffered even ⅕ the damage Gaza did, then it would be significant and worth reconsidering.
Scott Ritter is claiming that if IDF attacks Hezbollah now, it is likely to lose Northern Israel. IDF is losing badly against Hamas already, taking casualty of around 5000, while not making a dent against Hamas, which is dug in and attack by surprise. Hezbollah, in the mean time, is clearing out Israeli intelligence assets and blew up equipments worth hundreds of millions of dollars which cannot be replaced easily if at all. If Israel try anything, it will operate blind.
He claims IDF is not simply not that good, as it is composed mainly of reservists -- which is why it is running up such a high casualty against a force (Hamas) that has so much less firepower. Hezbolla, in contrast, is a bona fide army with heavy weapon, unlike Hamas.
Hezbollah doesn't, however, have the land advantage that Hamas has. Southern Lebanon isn't a concrete jungle like Gaza; sparsely populated, lot of open area for maneuvering.