ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

delft

Brigadier
could you be more specific on China's role in your theory? it's SDF here after all :)
The Chinese defence minister visited Tehran a short while ago and the rumours were that he talked with his Iranian colleague about among other things cooperation in supporting Syria. This after one of his deputies visited Damascus.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
That shortens the defence lines of the "rebels" but they also no doubt lost a lot of fighters and weapons the last two days. With the increased political and eventual material support from China and Egypt the end of the war is getting near. Of course the Egyptian armed forces are US trained so will have a lot to learn and may well come too late to contribute.
Shortens ONLY if the "rebels" have increased manpower along those lines, IF the "rebels" managed to retreat from the northern pocket as they WISHED (planned).

If I were the commander of SAA (forgive me being an armchair general) and had the fire power (air or artillery), I would have dug a wide and deep trench with bomb and artillery shells along that main road before the "rebels" begin to abandon their positions in the north pocket.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
That shortens the defence lines of the "rebels" but they also no doubt lost a lot of fighters and weapons the last two days. With the increased political and eventual material support from China and Egypt the end of the war is getting near. Of course the Egyptian armed forces are US trained so will have a lot to learn and may well come too late to contribute.

Late to Aleppo, but not late to the rest of Syria. There is still a long way to go for SAA. The "rebels" to the west and IS to the east, then eventually the Turks to the north, though I think Egypt will stay out of the north. President Al Sisi's words were clear, supporting the SAA. That is SAA's campaign all over Syria. And I have no reason to doubt his seriousness.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
could you be more specific on China's role in your theory? it's SDF here after all :)
Correction of the wording. It is a fact rather than theory (implying a wish or prediction from delft).

President Al Sisi said in the interview in Portugal that he "support national armies...including Syria), when asked "if he meant SAA", he said "yes". When these words came out from Egyptian president, it became a fact of commitment, not a theory of SDF member.

Regarding China's role, it was never a theory or wish after China on the political "battle" field used her Veto power twice in the UN to defend Syrian government. On the military side, the defense delegations of both SAA and PLA have paid multiple times to each other, including one a year ago that Syria delegation asking China to deliver something according to a contract signed before the crisis, a shame on China's part to delay IMO.

As the specifics you are asking, none of us in SDF will know until many years later. Think about it, when did you get to know China's role in Afghanistan? Years after USSR pulled out? What exactly did China do there? Those specifics are sketchy at the best even after decades.
 
This does not bode well for the territorial integrity of Syria although it is good for reducing fighting in vain. Not that the lip service by all involved about the territorial integrity of Syria isn't blatantly just that judging by actual actions.

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WORLD NEWS | Sun Nov 27, 2016 | 7:15am EST
Syrian rebels hand in heavy weapons in besieged Damascus town

Syrian rebels handed in their heavy weapons in a town southwest of Damascus, on Sunday, as part of a deal they have made with the government to get safe passage to insurgent-controlled areas, state-affiliated media said.

Through a series of so-called "settlement" agreements and army offensives, the Syrian government, backed by Russian air power and Iranian-backed militias, has been steadily suppressing armed opposition to its rule in the capital city's suburbs.

Rebels fighting President Bashar al-Assad and his government say the deals are part of a strategy to forcibly displace whole populations from opposition-held areas after years of siege and bombardment.

The United Nations estimates 12,000 people have been besieged in Khan al-Shih, where a Palestinian refugee camp is located, in the Damascus suburbs for years. The last month has seen heavy clashes and air strikes there, ending this week with the evacuation deal.

Khan al-Shih is the only town not controlled by the government on a major supply route from Damascus to government-held territory in the southern province of Quneitra.

The army will start the transfer of insurgents and their families from the town to rebel-held Idlib province on Monday, according to a statement from a military news service run by the Lebanese group Hezbollah, an ally of Assad.

Syrian state-run Ikhbariya TV, broadcasting from near Khan al-Shih on Sunday, said 1,270 people will be moved to Idlib in the coming week and the remaining 3,000-4,500 people will be taken back into government-controlled areas, citing sources within the local administration.

A month ago, the Syrian army and its allies cut supply lines between Khan al-Shih and the town of Zakiya to its south which is largely peaceful due to a previous deal with the government.

Ikhbariya said seven other villages west of Damascus had agreed to settlement and evacuation deals in the past 24 hours.

Syria's Minister of National Reconciliation Affairs, Ali Haidar, whose department administers the agreements, could not immediately be reached for comment.

(Reporting by Lisa Barrington; Editing by Louise Ireland)
 
This is the first time I've seen a report of Israel directly retaliating against identified attackers rather than Israel responding to unidentified attackers by attacking Syrian government forces or its allies elsewhere. Did Russian air defenses make the difference?

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WORLD NEWS | Sun Nov 27, 2016 | 4:43pm EST
Israeli air strike kills four Islamic State-linked gunmen on Golan

Israeli aircraft killed four Islamic State-linked gunmen on Sunday after they fired mortars and shot at troops patrolling along the occupied Golan Heights, the military said.

Israel has often responded to errant fire from the Syrian civil war, but exchanges of fire with gunmen on the Golan have been rare since the fighting began more than five years ago.

The militants fired at the Israeli soldiers, who were on the Israeli-controlled territory, from a vehicle driving along the Syrian side of the Golan, said Israeli military spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Peter Lerner.

The troops fired back before Israeli aircraft struck.

"The air force intervened, targeted the vehicle the gunmen were in and hit and struck the vehicle, killing what seems as four terrorists," Lerner said. He added that the militants were from the Islamic State-affiliated Yarmouk Martyrs Brigades.

Previous Israeli attacks deeper in Syria have mainly targeted supply routes and arms depots of Lebanese Shi'ite Muslim group Hezbollah, whose fighters support Syrian President Bashar al Assad's army.

There was no immediate response from the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade. The United States designated the group a terrorist entity in June for its activities and links to Islamic State.

The group first gained attention when they abducted 21 U.N. peacekeepers from the Philippines in a demilitarized zone between Syria and the Israeli-held part of the Golan. They released them in March 2013.

Israel captured the western Golan in the 1967 Middle East war and annexed it, a move not recognized internationally.

(Reporting by Maayan Lubell in Jerusalem; Addiitonal reporting by Lisa Barrington in Beirut; Editing by Mark Potter)
 

delft

Brigadier
This is the first time I've seen a report of Israel directly retaliating against identified attackers rather than Israel responding to unidentified attackers by attacking Syrian government forces or its allies elsewhere. Did Russian air defenses make the difference?

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This is a change of policy by Israel. Previously such IS attacks were a reason for Israel to attack SAA positions.
 

delft

Brigadier
This does not bode well for the territorial integrity of Syria although it is good for reducing fighting in vain. Not that the lip service by all involved about the territorial integrity of Syria isn't blatantly just that judging by actual actions.

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In such cases part of the rebels leave to Idlib together with some of their families while the others accept that for them the war is over and stay. Those being collected in Idlib will feel even more defeated. And Idlib too will be recovered by the government.
 

delft

Brigadier
links describing Israel attacks of SAA positions after Israel had been attacked by IS:
There have been many accounts of Israel attacking SAA positions after Israel was attacked from Syria. You don't think those attacks were executed by SAA? Those attacks typically didn't cause casualties or even damage.
 
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