ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

the longer I follow the Syrian conflict and its coverage, the less I understand ... will give three examples:

#1
...
... #2: the official Russian announcement from yesterday evening
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says the Desert Group
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...no-oped-no-policis.t6913/page-375#post-400600
got within five kilometers from Tabqa (OK it's
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)
but there haven't been official pictures/footage made available for three days now (during last week there was quite a lot of these, some of them I posted), so today even the Red Russian blogger
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quoted ISIL announcement of attacking presumably Russians in the area ... as I said, I'm posting about events/coverage I don't understand, in the hope somebody will explain to me what's going on :) the next post will be maybe even more puzzling ...
 
... #2:
...
as I said, I'm posting about events/coverage I don't understand, in the hope somebody will explain to me what's going on :) the next post will be maybe even more puzzling ...
... #3: Syrian/Russians warplanes recently have bombed Aleppo day and night ("night example":
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...no-oped-no-policis.t6913/page-379#post-401342
"day example": now I watched a video by journalists from this Tuesday, plenty of blood, so just related picture
Ck739h6XAAAyKpf.jpg
here)
and I've read in Russian Internet
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Syrian/Russian warplanes mistakenly bombed Hezbollah Fighters in Southern Aleppo area, who then fought Mr. Assad's Soldiers, and this would be the link to the corresponding Hezbollah statement:
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google translation failed, so I'm wondering if it's a fake, or something like that might've happened?
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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... #2: the official Russian announcement from yesterday evening
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says the Desert Group
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...no-oped-no-policis.t6913/page-375#post-400600
got within five kilometers from Tabqa (OK it's
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
)
but there haven't been official pictures/footage made available for three days now (during last week there was quite a lot of these, some of them I posted), so today even the Red Russian blogger
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quoted ISIL announcement of attacking presumably Russians in the area ... as I said, I'm posting about events/coverage I don't understand, in the hope somebody will explain to me what's going on :) the next post will be maybe even more puzzling ...

Ok Jura, but seriously, what do you think this sort of campaign is going to look like?
Unless you believe that ISIS has a fighter behind every stone in the desert, you are going to have checkpoints on the road, especially around Strategic Targets and settlements, but otherwise huge areas of open space with BA in it.
This means that while the main column is rolling up the Highway, dealing with Check points as they, much of the other activity will be small light fast moving units, conducting recce and hit and run. For ISIS, this will mean IED's and snipers along the route and for the SAA interception and ambush of the aforementioned ISIS units plus identifying targets and calling in Airstrikes.

This means that while the main Heavy Armour on the road is still 30kms away from the Airbase, and now probably moving far more slowly as they start to leave the Desert and enter more fertile and populated areas, there is no reason why advance units may have skirted round and recced up to visual range of the Airbase.

Syria_Battle_for_AlThawrah_June_14_8am.png


Yesterdays map showed pretty much what I expected to see, a split north and east at the crossroads as a prelude to taking the whole "block" of territory between the roads.
The solid green is going to be the position of the main column while the hatched area showing the fire zone and the operational areas for flanking units etc.
ISIS have been caught on the hop and must be pouring in any reinforcements they can find and trying to fortify these previously remote and quiet areas.
I would not be surprised if the SAA have found a hole in the above and are quietly sending a force through it.

I guess we should learn in the very near future.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Just to make it clear about Swedish involvement.
Currently, Sweden has a mission (35 persons) in Iraq to train. Sweden is also involved in UN mission "UNTSO" since 1948. There is no (neither official nor alleged) Swedish boots on Syrian soil (outside of UNSTO).

ibtimes report
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and
Swedish Defense Ministry
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Ok Jura, but seriously, what do you think this sort of campaign is going to look like?
...
that's what I was thinking about while cutting vegetables for Ragu alla Bolognese, which is slowly cooking now, so I'll present my (miss)understanding of what Soviet tactics would be for "this sort of campaign":

I assume three times plus numerical superiority (it's probably fulfilled: I've previously posted
  1. the Desert Group comprises about five thousand men, and
  2. ISIL has less than one thousand men to defend
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and if the numbers were correct, it wouldn't be mixing apples and oranges when relating these numbers to the situation south to Tabqa ... or would it?),

and I suppose, in the action described below, terrain features don't play any role (it may not be the case in the oil fields there, I guess, but let's move on):

I'll give an imaginary example using the map I posted before
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...no-oped-no-policis.t6913/page-375#post-400634

xFu9.jpg
and if the target was Resafa (I repeat that's just an example, but I assume the distances to be as they are in what I'm trying to describe), the Desert Group should move as fast as it can toward it; at one point in time (on Day Two perhaps) it would be found out (by recon) the OPFOR is about to block the road and to counter-strike around the "point 42 in the middle", the Desert Group would split into:
  1. long move north: mainly tanks plus self-propelled howitzers;
  2. long move south: mainly tanks plus self-propelled howitzers;
  3. static part (mainly MLRSs, towed artillery, Infantrymen) stopping for the moment of the expected counter-strike, just to be able to hold off AT FIRST
Then, the OPFOR either retreats (toward Resafa in this imaginary scenario), or ends up in what I think is called fire sack.

This is then repeated until the Desert Group reaches the town, with the assault to start immediately (I think it's called something like "from the march"), to be able to dig in and ... I might go on, but I'll wait for reactions here first LOL and before you redirect me to Sci-Fi Thread, let me tell you if it had been 1986, that's what I think would've happened.
It seems to me the group instead moved way too slowly, had to assume perimeter defense by now ... in the middle of nowhere.

I guess we should learn in the very near future.
I guess so ... it's going to be two weeks tomorrow during which the Dessert Group has been in the open!
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
that's what I was thinking about while cutting vegetables for Ragu alla Bolognese, which is slowly cooking now, so I'll present my (miss)understanding of what Soviet tactics would be for "this sort of campaign":

I assume three times plus numerical superiority (it's probably fulfilled: I've previously posted
  1. the Desert Group comprises about five thousand men, and
  2. ISIL has less than one thousand men to defend
    Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
and if the numbers were correct, it wouldn't be mixing apples and oranges when relating these numbers to the situation south to Tabqa ... or would it?),

and I suppose, in the action described below, terrain features don't play any role (it may not be the case in the oil fields there, I guess, but let's move on):

I'll give an imaginary example using the map I posted before
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...no-oped-no-policis.t6913/page-375#post-400634

xFu9.jpg
and if the target was Resafa (I repeat that's just an example, but I assume the distances to be as they are in what I'm trying to describe), the Desert Group should move as fast as it can toward it; at one point in time (on Day Two perhaps) it would be found out (by recon) the OPFOR is about to block the road and to counter-strike around the "point 42 in the middle", the Desert Group would split into:
  1. long move north: mainly tanks plus self-propelled howitzers;
  2. long move south: mainly tanks plus self-propelled howitzers;
  3. static part (mainly MLRSs, towed artillery, Infantrymen) stopping for the moment of the expected counter-strike, just to be able to hold off AT FIRST
Then, the OPFOR either retreats (toward Resafa in this imaginary scenario), or ends up in what I think is called fire sack.

This is then repeated until the Desert Group reaches the town, with the assault to start immediately (I think it's called something like "from the march"), to be able to dig in and ... I might go on, but I'll wait for reactions here first LOL and before you redirect me to Sci-Fi Thread, let me tell you if it had been 1986, that's what I think would've happened.
It seems to me the group instead moved way too slowly, had to assume perimeter defense by now ... in the middle of nowhere.


I guess so ... it's going to be two weeks tomorrow during which the Dessert Group has been in the open!

Interesting!

No doubt that Soviet based tactics and planning will be central to the Syrian Army, but I also note that there are advisors now from the RFA giving current advice.

I can think of two critical factors, the first of which I have no knowledge of whatsoever.

1) Not only do we not know the numbers of ISIS fighters deployed, I have never been able to find out how ISIS fighters are organised and what is the structure/armament of the formations within it.

2) The SAA are enjoying the full weight of Russian Airpower, while the ISIS has none.

If the SAA have the overwhelming fire power on the ground and Total Air Dominance, I would expect to see a wide branching out and multiple pincer movements being developed as opposed to just the one, and developing an Arc between Tabqa, Resafa and pushing I would guess as far East as Alhora.
This would produce a solid buffer zone and isolate all ISIS territory West of the Euphrates north of Tabqa. Assuming thr Kurds are going to continue pushing west to Mare and Azaz, a push East from Syrian forces in Aleppo to the Banks of Lake Assad seems highly probable.
All the more considering how agreeable Russia was to an extended Cease Fire in Aleppo.

The other interesting factor is of course the attitude of the Civilian population and whether they rise in support or opposition at the arrival of the SAA.
 
...

2) The SAA are enjoying the full weight of Russian Airpower, while the ISIS has none.

...
half a year ago
Oct 20, 2015
Have you heard of the Russian Air Force attack(s) on moving targets? (I haven't yet) I mean engaging convoys like the one shown inside of:
FSA's Liwa’ Suqour Jabal has sent reinforcements to S-Aleppo to join the fight against the SAA
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half a year after, can you post a video of Russian Close Air Support?

I have seen only bombings by Russian/Syrian aircraft of infrastructure, villages, towns (what's then presented as "ISIL command post" etc.), as of reportedly Tabqa today:
ClJ-bVXWIAANsB6.jpg

my point is such a bombardment doesn't stop ISIL reinforcements from arriving to fight the Government ... or it does maybe? EDIT so, an Armored Brigade which got stuck in the desert wouldn't benefit from the air dominance, and from your "full weight of Russian Airpower" ... of course I'm talking in the context of the situation south to Tabqa, not about how it would be in Russian steppes :)

EDIT AGAIN
I'm not saying if the Desert Group
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...no-oped-no-policis.t6913/page-375#post-400600
did, or didn't, get stuck ... this is what I don't know ... by the way, if I'm not mistaken, it's the fourth day without official pictures/footage from it
 
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