ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

DigoSSA

New Member
Registered Member
Syrian army expects to retake Palmyra 'within hours': TV

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syrian soldiers and their allies advanced to within 1 km (half a mile) of Palmyra on Thursday and soldiers speaking from the outskirts of the historic city said they hoped to recapture it from Islamic State fighters within hours.

The Syrian army is trying to retake Palmyra, which the ultra-hardline Islamist militants seized in May, to open a road to the mostly IS-held eastern province of Deir al-Zor.

The recapture of the desert city would be one of the most prominent successes for President Bashar al-Assad since Russia launched a military intervention in September which turned the tide of Syria's civil war in his favor.

Palmyra is the site of ancient Roman-era temples and colonnades - many of them destroyed by the militants - as well as being a strategic link between the west and east of Syria.

"We are 850 meters from Palmyra city. In a few hours(government) forces will declare the city of Palmyra completely secure, God willing," one soldier told Ikhbariya television channel, in comments echoed by his comrades on the front.

One of the soldiers said they had cleared around 120 explosives from the 'Palmyra Triangle' road junction area as they approached the city from the west.

Syrian television quoted the field commander as saying the road into Palmyra was now open to government forces after they took control of hills overlooking its approaches.

Earlier, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group reported clashes on the outskirts of the city as government forces, backed by Russian and Syrian warplanes, made advances.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who said last week he was withdrawing most Russian forces, predicted on Thursday that the Syrian army would retake Palmyra soon.

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plawolf

Lieutenant General
new birds just arrived

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Interesting.

I am wondering if the 'withdrawal' isn't so much an actual withdrawal as a shifting of resources applied.

The effectiveness of fixed wing air power on the likes of ISIS has always been questionable.

The US and allies have had scant success with air strikes in checking ISIS gains on the ground, and TBO, I also have doubts about just how much impact strategic Russia air strikes are truly having on ISIS.

The very best smart bomb is only as reliable as the targeting intel. Organisations like ISIS are forced to learn counter surveillance very quickly and very well, as failure to do so ends in death by air strike.

If coalition jets with smart bombs cannot get some ISIS leaders deep in ISIS territory, I have little confidence the Russians can somehow nail them with free fall bombs.

I think the big game changer of the Russian air campaign has been it's co-ordination with SAA and other loyalist ground forces.

With ground forces support, not only do you get reliable, timely targeting information from front line troops and observers, but you can also work with friendly ground forces to pin enemy forces in place to be splatted by air strikes, or flush them from cover with air strikes so the ground forces can have a turkey shoot etc.

The key to loyalist successes has been CAS. I think it is noteworthy that the Russians are leaving all their CAS birds in place, while removing the deep penetration strikers like the Su34, while at the same time bring in more dedicated CAS assets like the Ka-50 pictured.

To me, that doesn't look so much like a withdrawal as a restructuring of forces deployed.

I think the Su34s have proved less than satisfactory, so they Russians are pulling them. But they don't want to admit that, so they put a nice piece of spin on it.

The bulk of the withdrawal appears to be the ground troops Russia originally deployed to bolster security at their main base, and also as a potential direct intervention force should the situation get that bad.

Given the big gains loyalist forces have been making in recent months, there is now almost no threat of ISIS being able to mount a direct, large scale frontal assault on the Russian base, nor do the Russians need to fight on the ground to keep Assad in power, so those ground troops are no longer needed in Syria.

Pulling them out not only makes logistical and economic sense, but also provides a brilliant piece of propaganda and misdirection to take the west completely by surprise, so everyone is asking the question Russia wants them to ask - why are the Russians pulling out of Syria, instead of the ones they probably should be asking - why are the Russians pulling XYZ assets out and not ABC?
 

nicky

Junior Member
putin did not promise full withdrawal from syria. so you can only blame yourself for high hopes.
he only showed the world that asad called the right number when in trouble - unlike gaddafi or saddam.

smart bombs proved to be another joke. you need to have a lot of money and high-tech to build smart weapons.
you need to have almost as much to modernize old weapons to be smart.

but you really need to be a genius to convert old platform and old bombs into precision weapon at the cost of a pc.

the difference of the allied campaign and putin's war is also in the active role of his "green men" on the ground. many of whom don't look like europeans and have a long record of fighting terrorists. much like in crimea they are locals-friendly and provide intel, targeting, etc. while remain almost unnoticed.
 

delft

Brigadier
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Helicopters based on Palmyra airport will be in a good position to Support the fighting at Deir-Ez Zor.

BTW Tony Blair wants Western ground forces involved in defeating Daesh, according to BBC Radio 4 news this morning. I suppose he is afraid that Daesh will be destroyed without serious Western involvement which would diminish Western influence on the internal affairs of Syria and Iraq.
 
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delft

Brigadier
I just listened to a BBC Radio 4 program about Jihadies returning from Syria. You can find it at:
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.
Well worth a listen. The official attitude is rather incoherent, but certainly there is no thought of the mayhem caused in Syria. As an extreme (?) example it presents one mother who it said cooperated fully with the authorities and now complains: he went out with full support of NATO and Britain and is now serving seventeen years in prison.
 
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