Is the US shooting itself in the foot by banning Huawei?

Jura The idiot · Apr 11, 2019

now I read
‘We’re probably the most tested vendor in the world’: Huawei hits back at US campaign to block its 5G technology

Company’s cybersecurity director Sophie Batas says US is ‘singling out’ Huawei
A US State Department official said on Wednesday that Huawei would be banned as result of countries adopting risk-based security frameworks for 5G

Updated: 4:27am, 12 Apr, 2019

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China’s Huawei Technologies said on Thursday that the security of its telecoms network equipment was as tight as any, and hit back at the US government for briefing Washington’s allies against it.

Huawei, the global market leader, is the target of a campaign by Washington, which has barred it from next-generation 5G networks because of concerns about its ties to the Chinese government and says Western countries should block its technology.

The issue is crucial because of 5G’s leading role in internet-connected products ranging from self-driving cars and smart cities to augmented reality and artificial intelligence.

“We are probably the most tested vendor in the world,” Huawei’s cybersecurity director Sophie Batas told journalists at the company’s new cybersecurity centre in Brussels.

She criticised comments by Robert Strayer, US State Department deputy assistant secretary for cyber, international communications and information policy, who told reporters on Wednesday that countries adopting risk-based security frameworks for 5G would lead “inevitably” to Huawei being banned.

“I have difficulty believing that a government like the United States organised a press conference yesterday to single out one particular company, and I wonder why it is going so far,” she said.

China and the US are embroiled in a long-running trade dispute.

Batas said there were a range of tests customers could do on Huawei products at the centre and similar facilities in several countries, as well as hiring independent third party evaluators.

She said law firms Zhong Lun, Clifford Chance and Ernst & Young had looked into China’s intelligence laws and concluded that did not allow Beijing to install back door features in a company’s equipment.

Last month, Germany set tougher criteria for vendors supplying telecoms network equipment there, but stopped short of singling out Huawei, instead saying the same rules should apply to all vendors.

Icmer · Apr 11, 2019

Jura said:
now I read
‘We’re probably the most tested vendor in the world’: Huawei hits back at US campaign to block its 5G technology

Company’s cybersecurity director Sophie Batas says US is ‘singling out’ Huawei

A US State Department official said on Wednesday that Huawei would be banned as result of countries adopting risk-based security frameworks for 5G

Updated: 4:27am, 12 Apr, 2019
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She criticised comments by Robert Strayer, US State Department deputy assistant secretary for cyber, international communications and information policy, who told reporters on Wednesday that countries adopting risk-based security frameworks for 5G would lead “inevitably” to Huawei being banned

This is a delusional effort to save face after the US recently conceded in wording that it would be OK for Germany and other countries to adopt a policy of using "reputable" vendors only. In reality, this would still mean that Huawei gets used, even though the US wishes otherwise. This also further shows how inept US diplomatic personnel have become after the gutting of the State Department and appointments of Pompeo + the current ambassadors to the EU despite being wholly incompetent and ill-informed.

Icmer · Apr 11, 2019

Tam said:
Corporations and stockholders need to see shipments because it directly affects the bottom line to justify the stock (over)valuation of that company.

Apple is not really overvalued if that is what you're suggesting. From an article today:

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Amid the slowing iPhone business, Apple is aiming to shift its focus on services, hoping to monetize the massive user base. The company debuted a slew of new subscription services two weeks ago, including a TV service, gaming bundle, and magazine subscription, but Credit Suisse said the transition can’t be done in the blink of an eye.

“We recognize the potential in the shift to services, but believe it will take time for that view to play out,” Cabral said. The analyst sees the service business growing to $65 billion by 2021 from $40 billion in 2018.

Credit Suisse set a 12-month price target for Apple at $209, just a couple points above its current trading level of about $201. Its share price was unchanged Thursday morning.

Looking beyond the headline-grabbing expected iPhone sales decline, more reasoned analysis expects that Apple is far from conceding its status as the global hardware industry leader in net profits earned.

Icmer · Apr 11, 2019

Icmer said:
Apple is not really overvalued if that is what you're suggesting.

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Evidently, few analysts are expecting AAPL to sink indefinitely.

Icmer · Apr 11, 2019

Icmer said:
Not only Netmarketshare, but Jiguang and Netzero use analytics from in-app advertisements, micro-apps (WeChat), and game traffic to obtain a count of unique smartphone users. They all arrive at the same conclusion that iPhone's installed base is still increasing.

Here are direct links to those analytics:

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Icmer · Apr 11, 2019

Icmer said:
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Also from Newzoo:

Tam · Apr 11, 2019

Icmer said:
Apple is not really overvalued if that is what you're suggesting. From an article today:

Looking beyond the headline-grabbing expected iPhone sales decline, more reasoned analysis expects that Apple is far from conceding its status as the global hardware industry leader in net profits earned.

FAANG stocks are overvalued and ready for a fall. Its a ponzi scheme. They need extremely high expectations in order to sustain their current valuations. There are signs of US recession in the horizon, from the inverted yield to sudden dip in employment. The rise of Treasury yields is caused by guess what --- insiders taking their money out of stocks and putting it into Treasuries. Analysts are the biggest shills in the business --- how many analysts kept on saying how good the economy and we need to keep throwing money on stocks before 2008 hit.

Look at Tim Cook selling his Apple stocks.

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Then months later declares iPhone sales are down. Oh what an insider move is that.

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Today's news.

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Icmer · Apr 11, 2019

Tam said:
FAANG stocks are overvalued and ready for a fall. Its a ponzi scheme. They need extremely high expectations in order to sustain their current valuations. There are signs of US recession in the horizon, from the inverted yield to sudden dip in employment. The rise of Treasury yields is caused by guess what --- insiders taking their money out of stocks and putting it into Treasuries. Analysts are the biggest shills in the business --- how many analysts kept on saying how good the economy and we need to keep throwing money on stocks before 2008 hit.

Very difficult to trust speculation on the proximity of the next financial crisis. There are a multitude of reasons why the inverted yield doesn't necessarily signal a recession within the next 3-5 years.

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Those YouTube finance bloggers tend to be sensationalist, to say the least. If one always takes them and ZeroHedge writers seriously, we would've already seen a recession sometime in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and the stock market rally would've never happened. But I guess even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Look at Tim Cook selling his Apple stocks.

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Then months later declares iPhone sales are down. Oh what an insider move is that.

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Today's news.

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Funny, the last article you linked contains the exact same quotes that I linked in my previous reply.

I wouldn't say the iPhone sales decline came as such a huge shock that only a few insiders could've planned for it months ahead. Looking at the state of the Chinese smartphone market from 2017-2018 and the iPhone X's inflated price + limited value proposition, it seemed inevitable that the impact of their surging Chinese competitors would soon be reflected in iPhone sales.
(I'm not saying Cook's excuse of a slowing Chinese economy was legitimate, by the way - but that the reasons Hendrik mentioned about the quality of competitors' products improving were becoming more obvious and difficult to ignore.)

If your claim that FAANG are all overvalued is predicated on the arrival of the next recession, then this debate has become far too speculative to continue.

Icmer · Apr 11, 2019

Icmer said:
Those YouTube finance bloggers tend to be sensationalist, to say the least. If one always takes them and ZeroHedge writers seriously, we would've already seen a recession sometime in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and the stock market rally would've never happened. But I guess even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Indeed, this is by the guy whose video you posted (from last year):

Dude doesn't have any reputable credentials or education either.

Tam · Apr 11, 2019

Again, you do nothing but quote from the invested shill media that has their own hands on the pocket. That is two gold standards for a recession being passed. If the economy is doing so well, then why is corporate, consumer, household and government debt all rising to new highs?

Going to smartphone loyalty.

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CIRP is out today with a new report detailing smartphone loyalty among consumers. While

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r egularly touts “switchers” as an area of growth for the iPhone, the latest CIRP data claims that Android users are actually more loyal than iPhone users, at least over the last 12 months.

CIRP says that its research shows Android has a 92 percent loyalty rate, compared to the 89 percent loyalty rate of iOS as of September of 2018. The smartphone loyalty numbers have fluctuated slightly over the last three years, but Android and iOS are both currently at their highest-ever points.

“Loyalty has crept up for both iOS and Android in the past two years, to the highest levels we’ve seen,” said Mike Levin, Partner and Co-Founder of CIRP. “Basically, For the past three years, around 90% of US smartphone users remain with their same operating system when they buy a new smartphone.”

On a broader scale, this means that neither iOS nor Android are likely to win over too many customers from the opposite platform. CIRP’s John Lowitz explains that while many predict that OS switching is on the rise, especially switching from Android to iOS, in actuality that isn’t currently the case.

Is the US shooting itself in the foot by banning Huawei?

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