Indian Economics thread.


Crang

Senior Member
Registered Member
They are basing it off IMF forecasts from 2020. Did the IMF know that there would be a massive second wave this year?
IMF generally overestimates Indian performance and underestimates Chinese performance. IMF forecast for China would be based on believing there's gonna be a second wave in China, whereas they believe 2021 would be smooth sailing for India.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

Crang

Senior Member
Registered Member
Of course now they are starting to revise their forecast downwards for India, and they will probably keep revising the forecast downwards for the rest of the year.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Why is it economic forecasts for China keep getting revised upwards? They're like, Oops we didn't expect China to do so well again. And they keep making this mistake year after year. The racism is quite incredible.

Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me—you can't get fooled again.
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
I'm not well versed in economics, but is India's covid situation going to mess up their economy again? I heard some members at PDF say there's no effect.

They are basing it off IMF forecasts from 2020. Did the IMF know that there would be a massive second wave this year?

Of course now they are starting to revise their forecast downwards for India, and they will probably keep revising the forecast downwards for the rest of the year.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Why is it economic forecasts for China keep getting revised upwards? They're like, Oops we didn't expect China to do so well again. And they keep making this mistake year after year. The racism is quite incredible.

There's an old saying in Tennessee—I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee—that says, 'Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me—you can't get fooled again.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

sinophilia

Junior Member
Registered Member
IMF generally overestimates Indian performance and underestimates Chinese performance. IMF forecast for China would be based on believing there's gonna be a second wave in China, whereas they believe 2021 would be smooth sailing for India.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I would also note that ever since Modi has been elected many economists have been questioning the Indian numbers in general. While there have been similar questions historically about Chinese numbers, it seems pretty clear whatever is happening in India is on a national scale while the Chinese numbers that were smoothed over were provincially-based and not promoted at a national level.

So even the final numbers will be suspect! I've seen international economist organizations saying India's overall annual GDP seems up to 25% overstated. Not sure how true this is but wouldn't be surprised at all.
 

hkbc

Junior Member
IMF generally overestimates Indian performance and underestimates Chinese performance. IMF forecast for China would be based on believing there's gonna be a second wave in China, whereas they believe 2021 would be smooth sailing for India.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Might have something to do with the IMF's chief economist
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


here's an interview from 3 weeks ago


Nostradamus she is not!
 

Bellum_Romanum

Junior Member
Registered Member
Of course now they are starting to revise their forecast downwards for India, and they will probably keep revising the forecast downwards for the rest of the year.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Why is it economic forecasts for China keep getting revised upwards? They're like, Oops we didn't expect China to do so well again. And they keep making this mistake year after year. The racism is quite incredible.

Fool me once, shame on...shame on you. Fool me—you can't get fooled again.
Well that's a wrong quote my friend. In the immortal words from one of the most famous American philosopher, war criminal, Pres. George W. Bush: "Fool me once, shame on you, Fool me twice, you can't fool again."

 

Bellum_Romanum

Junior Member
Registered Member
Might have something to do with the IMF's chief economist
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


here's an interview from 3 weeks ago


Nostradamus she is not!
No wonder the Jai Hind Indians were lapping this economic predictions like it's mana from heaven. I have never understood this economic quackery from the IMF and World Bank along with other western economic publications and prognosticators who are hell bent on being bearish towards Chinese economic growth while the same group tend to poo poo other economists who are rather optimistic and bullish towards China's economy i.e. Ray Dalio among others.
 

Strangelove

Junior Member
Registered Member
No wonder the Jai Hind Indians were lapping this economic predictions like it's mana from heaven. I have never understood this economic quackery from the IMF and World Bank along with other western economic publications and prognosticators who are hell bent on being bearish towards Chinese economic growth while the same group tend to poo poo other economists who are rather optimistic and bullish towards China's economy i.e. Ray Dalio among others.

IMF & WB are just departments of the western imperialist hegemony machine (part of the post-war Bretton Woods world order), they cooperated with China from the 90s to the 1st decade of 21st century when they thought China was controllable. They think differently now and bets on India to contain China, and attract some of China's production/supply chains. Obviously things aren't working out for them...:cool:
 

Top