I am opening this discussion to talk about the impact of China's rise and the likely reduction of dominance of US and Europe in the world. I would like to see a long term perspective in this analysis in the range of 30-50 years.
What I would like to know is. Where do you see China in 30-40 years from now in 2050-2060. How much wealthy, influential and militarily powerful do you think China will be?
What impact do you think China's rise will bring to the world and how would the world look different from what it is right now?
How would this effect on the power and standing of US and Europe? Would they lose their financial power of sanctions that they wield all over the world? How about their military power? Would there be any change on how their force is positioned now? Would they change their behavior in terms of using force to achieve goals? Would they become more hesitant or more aggressive in using force?
What about the wealth and power of the west in general? Would US and Europe become poorer due to China's rise? China's higher level of technology and education could create a big competition for US and Europe and Japan. Would they lose their market share and thus become poorer due to China?
Then the bigger question comes, Would the West accept China's rise? How would they behave to stop, contain, curtail or accept China's rise and the likely reduction of their dominance in world affairs.
How much effort are they willing to spend to stop China's rise in a long term perspective? If China say, surpasses US by 2030, would they become even more concerned and aggressive about containing China's growth? Or would they become demoralized and accepting?
How likely is full scale decoupling between China and US? How willing is Europe to do a decoupling in say 2030-2040 when China will be much bigger in power and influence?
How about Japan and Korea? Are they willing to accept a rich and powerful China at their doorstep? How would they behave to these changes?
Finally, how about other developing countries around the world? Would they welcome a China that is more powerful than US? How would the behavior of countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Thailand and Venezuela is likely to change due to this transformation?
Finally, how likely is hot war to stop China's rise and where would that hot war occur and who might be the participants? Would this be a proxy war similar to the Cold War? OR would we see actual naval and air battle between say forces of China and US?
As you can see, there are many many open questions. These topics also touch on economics, IR, political science and military topics.
I hope you can keep the discussion here long term with a horizon of 30-50 years.
What I would like to know is. Where do you see China in 30-40 years from now in 2050-2060. How much wealthy, influential and militarily powerful do you think China will be?
What impact do you think China's rise will bring to the world and how would the world look different from what it is right now?
How would this effect on the power and standing of US and Europe? Would they lose their financial power of sanctions that they wield all over the world? How about their military power? Would there be any change on how their force is positioned now? Would they change their behavior in terms of using force to achieve goals? Would they become more hesitant or more aggressive in using force?
What about the wealth and power of the west in general? Would US and Europe become poorer due to China's rise? China's higher level of technology and education could create a big competition for US and Europe and Japan. Would they lose their market share and thus become poorer due to China?
Then the bigger question comes, Would the West accept China's rise? How would they behave to stop, contain, curtail or accept China's rise and the likely reduction of their dominance in world affairs.
How much effort are they willing to spend to stop China's rise in a long term perspective? If China say, surpasses US by 2030, would they become even more concerned and aggressive about containing China's growth? Or would they become demoralized and accepting?
How likely is full scale decoupling between China and US? How willing is Europe to do a decoupling in say 2030-2040 when China will be much bigger in power and influence?
How about Japan and Korea? Are they willing to accept a rich and powerful China at their doorstep? How would they behave to these changes?
Finally, how about other developing countries around the world? Would they welcome a China that is more powerful than US? How would the behavior of countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Thailand and Venezuela is likely to change due to this transformation?
Finally, how likely is hot war to stop China's rise and where would that hot war occur and who might be the participants? Would this be a proxy war similar to the Cold War? OR would we see actual naval and air battle between say forces of China and US?
As you can see, there are many many open questions. These topics also touch on economics, IR, political science and military topics.
I hope you can keep the discussion here long term with a horizon of 30-50 years.