Impact of China's rise in the world - Long term predictions (30-50 years)

crash8pilot said:

Hong Kong and Macau returned to Chinese sovereignty from the Brits and the Portuguese respectively without wars, conflicts, or bloodshed - I can't see why the same can't be achieved when it comes to Taiwan. People forget Xi Jinping met with then President Ma Ying-Jeou not so long ago in 2015, and relations between China and the KMT were warming up until the DPP came into power.

With Tsai Ing-Wen's polling numbers in decline as a result of the DPP's handling of a crippling drought, electricity blackout, and setbacks with the current COVID surge we might just see a shift in Taiwan's politics when the people there see who that Tsai's "regime" doesn't have their interests at heart, and some form of reunification (whether Taiwan becomes China's 35th province or some sort of Special Administrative Region like Hong Kong or Macau) with the Mainland is achieved.

Click to expand...

I think the CIA/western media infiltration of Hong Kong is something that caught China offguard.

It did a lot of damage to China's image among Taiwanese that I think will take many years to recover. The DPP are really good at making use of fake news/negative press

solarz said:

My predictions:

• Chinese culture will become global. Chinese period and wuxia dramas will become internationally renowned. Chinese film and game industries will eclipse their American counterparts.
• African countries will become the fastest growing economies. We're already starting to see signs of this.
• Japan and South Korea will reorient into the sinosphere. Korean unification will start looking optimistic again.
• Taiwan reunification will have been achieved around 2030-2040.
• SCS issues will be resolved, China will have a powerful military presence entrenched in the area.
• Establishment of a Chinese Monroe doctrine. US military bases in South Korea and Japan are removed. US pacific fleet falls back to Australia and Guam. Possible proxy war between US and China in one of the ASEAN nations having taken place during this process, with the Chinese supported faction emerging victorious.ing

Click to expand...

Re-orienting the Koreas and Japan will be the major foreign-policy project of China’s regional rise. It will require a synthesis of soft and hard power and may require Russian cooperation in the hard-power domain. Aligning the dominating economic and military powers in east-Asia with Chinese interests will solidify China’s pre-eminence. I also believe that Vietnam should be included in this effort, as it is a developing nation with significant population/economic potential.

One way in which China could use soft-power to exert influence in Japan would be to build up a considerable foreign reserve of Yen. Being that the Yen is not held in vast quantities, globally, assuming the position as the primary holder could give China considerable leverage over Japanese decision-making, and much more leverage than its position in US Treasuries affords.

Additionally, China should not neglect its western border and should seek to fill the power-vacuum that has been left in Afghanistan after the Russian and US failures, there.

sndef888 said:

I think the CIA/western media infiltration of Hong Kong is something that caught China offguard.

It did a lot of damage to China's image among Taiwanese that I think will take many years to recover. The DPP are really good at making use of fake news/negative press

Click to expand...

I'd argue the Chinese Government have been well aware of the threat the Five Eyes left behind when the Handover happened, yet there was nothing they could do without being accused of breaking the rules of "one country two systems".

It wasn't until the very sovereignty of Hong Kong was blatantly violated that the CPC said enough is enough - if the Hong Kong Government and LegCo weren't going to legislate Article 23 of the Basic Law, the NPC and CPPCC would legislate it on their behest by the means of the National Security Law in order to prevent further violations of China's sovereignty through Hong Kong by Five Eyes member states.

crash8pilot said:

I'd argue the Chinese Government have been well aware of the threat the Five Eyes left behind when the Handover happened, yet there was nothing they could do without being accused of breaking the rules of "one country two systems".

It wasn't until the very sovereignty of Hong Kong was blatantly violated that the CPC said enough is enough - if the Hong Kong Government and LegCo weren't going to legislate Article 23 of the Basic Law, the NPC and CPPCC would legislate it on their behest by the means of the National Security Law in order to prevent further violations of China's sovereignty through Hong Kong by Five Eyes member states.

Click to expand...

It was a mistake by Hu Jintao that he did not pressure HK to pass the anti-subversion laws back then.

But then again, nobody could have seen how much social media and internet fake news would explode.

sndef888 said:

It was a mistake by Hu Jintao that he did not pressure HK to pass the anti-subversion laws back then.

But then again, nobody could have seen how much social media and internet fake news would explode.

Click to expand...

While I’m not a big fan of Hu Jintao, there's only so much the General Secretary or anyone in the Party can do without the west pointing fingers screaming "one country two system".... All be it I highly doubt the likes of Pompeo, Blinken, or Raab have actually read the Basic Law or the Sino-British Joint Declaration, let alone have any sort of understanding or comprehension of what's in it.

I blame former Chief Executive Donald Tsang. Hong Kong’s first Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa ran out of political capital to get Article 23 passed. Donald Tsang who succeeded Tung just sat on his laurels and also became corrupt (and served time) while the local opposition grew stronger with both overt and covert backing from Five Eyes intelligence agencies. Alas CY Leung also ran out of political capital fixing the many problems Donald Tsang left behind, even though he has more influence on Hong Kong affairs as Vice Chairman of the CPPCC as compared to his time in office as Chief Executive.

I really don’t know what to make of current Chief Executive Carrie Lam - on one hand she has the favor of the CPC, and on the other hand she hasn’t really accomplished much with said favor. But to take things back to the thread topic, the country is forging ahead with the Greater Bay Area project with or without Carrie Lam’s contribution.

sndef888 said:

I think the CIA/western media infiltration of Hong Kong is something that caught China offguard.

It did a lot of damage to China's image among Taiwanese that I think will take many years to recover. The DPP are really good at making use of fake news/negative press

Click to expand...

I believe that this is something that will end up coming to haunt the west for a very long time in the future. Because of America’s actions towards China in regards to this, I believe that when the time is right, bounty’s will eventually come out for these people and all supplies (well all the cheap goods and hi tech goods like chips) will eventually be completely cut off without warning and when the USA infrastructure falls to a certain point (which it will), sanctions and blockades will be used to ensure that the USA will be struck back to the dark ages (which will certainly be a very rude awakening) and by then since money cannot be made in this circumstance, well their is no real need to help fix things is there since why should China rebuild a nation that wishes them ill. At this point, any requirements for China to play nice with the west ends and the time when the west will start fearing the wrath of China and thus that will be when they either shut up or get hurt.
Right now, the five eyes are not exactly building up for a real war with China, only to poke at China with the USA to do all the heavy lifting (which we all can see lacks the resources to really throw at China like they did Afghanistan) so the moment the USA goes down (the rest of the 5eyes will not only go down, but go down hard and begging for mercy since at this point, China no longer has any need to play nice at all not to mention that none of them have ever been invaded before. All of this is a matter of time

One of the thoughts I have had, is that China will become the naval superpower while the United States will maintain its advantage in Aerospace technology. So basically each nation will have their core strengths, while still being competent in the other areas.

I think most people in china are too fixated on the power of the US and too indignant that the US presumes to attempt to secure it existing hegemonic position with more hardcore realpolitik than before, and take too lightly the fact that there is a power with potential to fully equal china right on china’s door steps. In 30-50 years, China is unlikely to enjoy very high degree of even regional hegemonic power, and the primary reason will more likely be India than US, Much less Japan or other small regional players.

china’s lead over india seems great now, but it is a wasting asset much as America’s lead over china in 1990 or 2000 had been.

China and India both have the potential to far surpass America in scope and power, but being next door neighbors, both have very poor strategic positions as both will effectively check each other and prevent either from exercising hegemonic power in the region, much less across the world.

Richard Santos said:

china’s lead over india seems great now, but it is a wasting asset much as America’s lead over china in 1990 or 2000 had been.

Click to expand...

If India's population keeps increasing expentially, China's lead in per capita wealth could actually improve in the coming decades.

China and India both have the potential to far surpass America in scope and power

Click to expand...

China could surpass the US, yes. I'm not so sure about India. As far as I can tell, India is concerned only with its elites and is neglecting its vast lower castes. The upper castes have roughly 200 million people, so the actual potential of India might be only as a slightly richer Brazil.

Some people joke about India's toilet shortage, but this is actually indicative. The manufacture of the thrones is simple, but their installation is not. When I hear that India is ripping up the streets in its cities and its villages to put in sewer pipes, in my opinion that is when the country will be on its way to becoming a serious power.

Richard Santos said:

I think most people in china are too fixated on the power of the US and too indignant that the US presumes to attempt to secure it existing hegemonic position with more hardcore realpolitik than before, and take too lightly the fact that there is a power with potential to fully equal china right on china’s door steps. In 30-50 years, China is unlikely to enjoy very high degree of even regional hegemonic power, and the primary reason will more likely be India than US, Much less Japan or other small regional players.

china’s lead over india seems great now, but it is a wasting asset much as America’s lead over china in 1990 or 2000 had been.

China and India both have the potential to far surpass America in scope and power, but being next door neighbors, both have very poor strategic positions as both will effectively check each other and prevent either from exercising hegemonic power in the region, much less across the world.

Click to expand...

have you ever been to India?
If you have, then I am not so sure why you still have so much faith in India in its future ( always a distant goal ) development into a superpower.
that country is in a total mess due to internal inequality/division ( castes, racial, gender, language and religion ) , unchecked corruption at every levels that has become a way of life, low literacy rate, high birth rate, inefficient bureaucracy and a dysfunctional democracy governance system. AND COVID strikes.
in short, India boasts a lot, but delivers only a dismal little, if at all. Case in point is their mighty home built aircraft carrier which is still languishing half built in its construction yard.
China says little, but delivers much, and always keeping to its promises and on time.