Ideal chinese carrier thread

[Finn McCool]

If the Varyag is indeed ready and used heavilyy to train air wings...then they may be able to get the two new carriers operational by 2017 at the earliest IMHO with limited effectiveness as regards going up against a US or UK carrier, but clearly exceeding anything else locally in the region..

I do not believe they will build two carriers from scratch in five years. The US and other countries with far more expertise take 6-7 byears simply to build them.

We shall see.

But if they start building in 2010, then it will most likely be at least 2016 before they are completed building.

Even if an air wing is ready, it will take 1-2 years to commission the carrier with all of its systems and operations being tested in preparation for commissioning. I'd say maybe 2017, more likely 2018...but that's just my opinion.

The Varyag on the other hand could be ready by 2012-2013 if they finish her this year.

I agree with you that 2015 is a very ambitious timeline, but its possible they will postpone it, once the project is further along, and it is also possible that a lot of prep work has been conducted in secret. The PLAN is notoriously hush-hush about large projects like this, look at the 094.

By the way nice to hear from you Jeff. If any news would bring out some of the members we haven't heard from in a while this would be it.

 

[Jeff Head]

I agree with you that 2015 is a very ambitious timeline, but its possible they will postpone it, once the project is further along, and it is also possible that a lot of prep work has been conducted in secret. The PLAN is notoriously hush-hush about large projects like this, look at the 094.

By the way nice to hear from you Jeff. If any news would bring out some of the members we haven't heard from in a while this would be it.

I believe a lot of prep work most probably has been done. The logistics are probably well planned for sustaining the build...but, much more than that planning would have been impossible to hide if they had started prepositioning material for the carriers.

I have no doubts at all that the Chinese will their own carriers short of something very dramatic happening...I also still believe that they will commission the Varyag first and use it to train for these two becoming operational...which means in the end they will have three carriers if this report is accurate...which is probably a number they need to keep one at sea at all times in normal times, and surge two if necessary.

I believe it will take every biit and all of that, and a lot of good fortune in the process, for them to make the 2017 dates I speak of.

Time will tell...and thank you for the warm welcome to the comments. it's been a busy election and then holiday season for me.

 

[jackbh]

Next year could be this year 2009 because they did the interview in the end of 2008.

 

[Jeff Head]

Next year could be this year 2009 because they did the interview in the end of 2008.

In that case, if they are fortunate in doing the types of things I spoke of in my last post, the 2017 date becomes more and more likely. I still believe the 2015 date for two carriers being commissioned into the fleet would be far too ambitious.

Certainly the Varyag would be commissioned well before then if the PLAN finishes her within the next 12-18 months. A 2012-2013 date for her is very acheivable and she would be invaluable in preparing for the other two.

 

[bd popeye]

Hi Jeff! Happy to know you still visit SDF!

I still believe the 2015 date for two carriers being commissioned into the fleet would be far too ambitious.

I agree. The PLAN has no experience in operating a CV. As an example it takes the USN 7 years to build a CVN once the steel is cut. In the case of an LHA/LHD it takes about 5 years. It then takes nearly three years of constant training to have the air wing and ships crew trained well enough to deploy. And remember the USN has been operating CVs since 1922.

 

[Jeff Head]

Hi Jeff! Happy to know you still visit SDF!

Thanks Popeye. It's been a very busy election season followed by a very busy...but also very enjoyable...holiday season for me and my family.

Lots of news hitting the air and cyber waves these days and I am glad to finally see some movement.

If the PLAN is serious about the two carriers being built in Shanghai (and it now looks more and more like they are), then I believe it is all the more likely that they will finish and commission the Varyag and use her to prepare for the commissioning of the other two...particularly for training.

Also the new 054A FFG builds in HP and HD are an indication of their kick starting their naval surface combatant production again after a lull for the last 9+ months.

Lots of interesting and exciting things happening.

 

[tphuang]

Thanks Popeye. It's been a very busy election season followed by a very busy...but also very enjoyable...holiday season for me and my family.

Lots of news hitting the air and cyber waves these days and I am glad to finally see some movement.

If the PLAN is serious about the two carriers being built in Shanghai (and it now looks more and more like they are), then I believe it is all the more likely that they will finish and commission the Varyag and use her to prepare for the commissioning of the other two...particularly for training.

Also the new 054A FFG builds in HP and HD are an indication of their kick starting their naval surface combatant production again after a lull for the last 9+ months.

Lots of interesting and exciting things happening.

good seeing you, I can totally concur with the busyness in the last few months. And I figure now that the Olympics is over, there will be a lot more excitement here.

 

[Jeff Head]

good seeing you, I can totally concur with the busyness in the last few months. And I figure now that the Olympics is over, there will be a lot more excitement here.

Thanks tphuang. I agree. I think it is going to be an active year. I'll have my 2009 update to my

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out in the next 10-14 days.

Been taking a LOT of hits on my

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since these articles about the PLAN carriers came out.

 

[crobato]

In that case, if they are fortunate in doing the types of things I spoke of in my last post, the 2017 date becomes more and more likely. I still believe the 2015 date for two carriers being commissioned into the fleet would be far too ambitious.

Certainly the Varyag would be commissioned well before then if the PLAN finishes her within the next 12-18 months. A 2012-2013 date for her is very acheivable and she would be invaluable in preparing for the other two.

2015, 2017, does not matter for a nation that's been around for 5000 years and looking at the long run. The important thing is that they apparently have made a decision.

 

[panzerkom]

Was there any sign of a propulsion system already installed on the Varyag or did I miss that?