Gwadar: China's Naval Outpost in the Indian Ocean

ArjunMk1

Junior Member
US will move closer to India.

India wants only to milk USA. It will be a strategic disaster if USA leaves Pakistan . President Musharaff has put his everything for US's cause , Pakistan always had proved to be a true friend of USA whether during Soviets or Alqueada !!!

But US is prone to do mistakes ...........
 

FreeAsia2000

Junior Member
ArjunMk1 said:
India wants only to milk USA. It will be a strategic disaster if USA leaves Pakistan . President Musharaff has put his everything for US's cause , Pakistan always had proved to be a true friend of USA whether during Soviets or Alqueada !!!

But US is prone to do mistakes ...........

Not really.

Lessons Pakistan learnt from the 1990's were

1. Invest in your own upgrade, reverse-engineering and
combatability tech.

2. Diversify your arms import markets and make sure you
prepare at least 10 years in advance.

3. Ensure that your allies use the same suppliers that you
do in order to have a good supply of spare parts.

4. It's the energy stupid !

5. Provide PR support to your allies

6. Finally the GREATEST lesson of all. Only trust allies who have
given you their full support in a conflict.

Pakistan dosn't view the US as a ally nation and it will certainly be increasing
it's military ties to China. Please also see item 3
 

Nethappy

NO WAR PLS
VIP Professional
There is nothing.. the US or IN can do about Gwadar....

1) IF Pakistan approve PLAN in thier water....... there is nothing.. the US, IN or even UN secuity counil (which China is one of the 5 nation with veto power) can do.... meaning "sanction" or Military action. becos it's there right to do so and it doesn't break any internation laws.

2) There maybe alot of military tension in the area if there is a PLAN present, but it unlikely going to turn in to a war. As long as the PLAN keep there ship and plane.. within Paskistan and internation airspace/Water, any action taken by the US or IN will be know as unjustified hostile and in turn US or IN may face internation pressure, mayber even the UN secuity counil. What are they going to said, they attack cos they dun like them being there.

3)Any Saction or military action against Pakistan is highly unlikey for a long time, cos US depend.. on Pakistan side with it war on terror, and Afghanistan's. If the Pakistans decide to let there border with Afganistan uncheck, they may jeopardize it large aid package from America or face some kind of saction, but they still have China to help them, but Afghanistan might be crippled and the US going have a hell of a time in there. Then most likely the terrorist will do most the physical dmg. It be come a loss-loss situation, the only one who maybe get something out of it is the terrorist.

4)Military action against China is out of the question.
Saction highly unlikely, cos guess which economies going be hurt the most.
It becomoe another loss-loss situation
Here is the FACT.

The america's net national saving rate fell into negative territory in later 2005, at minus 1.2 percent of the national income. This means the US doesn;t save enough even to cover the replacement of worn-out plants and equipment. The frist for any hegemonic power over a much longer span if world history. Faced with a shortfall of domestic saving, countries can curtail economic growth or blorrow from the rest of the world. The frist option just doesn;t cut in the land of abundance. That leave the second option: borrowing. So America must run a massice current-account deficit to attract the foreign capital it needs to fund economic growth and now closing in on $800B per or about $3B er business day, up for $2B 2 years ago. That where China fit into America equation, thank to China, the US got a rather extraordinary deal for its trade-deficit dollar in 2005, a net balance of some $200B in low-cost, high-quality Chinese made goods that enlarged the purchasing power of American consumers. Therefore if any saction, high tariffs or a major Chinese currency revaluation who greatly impact the US economics as a whole. The absent of China's supply line the trade deficit wouldn't shrink, but instead who merely gravitate toward other foerign producters, which most likily dun enjoy China's low-cost and pricing advantages, therefore increasing US foregin debt.

Yeah another point, What would happen if china dump all it US foregin currency and buy EU. But i know this is impossible.

US also need China help with IRAN and most importantly N.Korea.

5) For your infomation the IN isn't dat great, it a powerful navy in Asia. But it pretty much still a coastal defence fleet. It may have a carrier, but it still doesn't have the power to fully protect the carrier and protect the rest of it coast at the same time if the carrier move outside it national water.
 

Vlad Plasmius

Junior Member
I think people don't understand the reality of Singapore. There is a large amount of Chinese tourism to the small country, many people are Chinese, and a lot of trade is done with China and all included areas (Hong Kong and Taiwan). Also, people who seem to think they're a democracy are making fools of themselves. Very few countries so brutally trample on the idea of democracy like Singapore. Singapore is also not very capitalistic either. Our support for Singapore is simply for strategic purposes as is Singapore's. Strategic relationships are far more easily shifted.

Indonesia could be a good strategic ally as well. Indonesian bases for the navy and perhaps airbases would give China an ability to exert a great deal of influence in Southeast Asia.

Obviously China's alliance with Pakistan is also important, probably the most important. Having access to the Persian Gulf would be very important and help pave the way for further involvement in the Middle East particularly in Iraq and Iran where the most potential for new energy sources and economic development is.
 

awais_rauf

Just Hatched
Registered Member
The Prospective of Pakistan

This is a nice post. I would like to add here something about this whole situation.
Firstly having chineese naval presence at Gawadar port will be very beneficial for Pakistan Navy and if the cirumstances remain the same there will be no oppostition from the Pakistan side against any such Naval deployment by China. But the US must be very uncomfortable not only because of their persence in the middle East but also because China will also be quite close to Iran and any Major Changes in Iran (That the US hopes to do) will also effect China and there will be increased support by china for Iran (the policy makers there at US will also be seeing nightmares of a IRAN-CHINA-PAKISTAN Triangle, a highly ambitious thing but still possible). The US would definitly put huge pressure on Pakistan not to allow chineese navy at such a strategic spot. Someone mentioned in a post that US can attack Pakistan, this is a very impractical statement everyone knows that if US attacked Afghanistan and Iraq was because they had nothing which could threaten US forces. With Pakistan this is a whole different story Pakistan not only has an organized army but it is also a country with Advanced Weaponry which includes Cruise missiles etc. cruise missiles i think are enough to bring the aircraft carriers down (considering the fact that there is no such thing as a anti-Cruise missile Stuff). US might would have learnt the lesson from Iraq and Afghanistan that even with the most advanced weaponry on earth one cannot mantain the Capture of any country of even a small population.
Secondly india will be extremely uncomfortable because this would mean there dominance of Indian ocean would not be as powerful as they have now. India will have to spend alot on their Navy also there may be a sort of Major Arms race with China. india will have to increase it Naval presence at its eastern costal borders with china.
I dont think china will opt to deploy their major Naval equipment at Gawadar right now they would not want to do something as serious as deploying SUBs there at Gawadar because this would then mean to threaten US and India direcly. US can disturb the situation in taiwan if condition like deployment of SUBs of major weaponry at Gawadar occours.

Regarding the String of pearls, China would like to have such Naval outposts located stretegicaly but chna needs to spend alot on their navy because this would need much resources. This String of Pearls in very much like a Starwars project. We will not see it happen any sooner than 30 to 40 years.
 

f2000

New Member
i have to agree with you in this.if us want to attack pakistan they need to think how to eliminate pakistan's nuclear threat first n all ballistic missile.maybe what us can do is economy sanction.but us is not stupid enough to start a war when they can make money from pakistan.maybe they take france for example how they make money from india n pakistan.
well plan deployment in gwadar will surely leave us unhappy.they will surely keep the eye on this.there will be more us navy subs n ship patrolling around arabian sea.
 

awais_rauf

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Thankyou for your reply f2000, I have been reading your posts through out this thread and found them very reality based.

Well you are right in saying that they will have to eliminate the defense stuff first but even if they do this worse then what about the resistance that they might face in Pakistan? A country with a population of 160 million people!! ( according to a count made by the goverment about 9 years ago) can be a nightmare to control. how much of them will take up arms against the invasion. According to encarta 2005 edition, Iraq and afghanistan both had population of 25,374,691 (2004 estimate) and 29,547,078 (2004 estimate) respectively and the US cant even face the resistance put up by these people. What i think AT MOST the US can do is to initiate a war between Pakistan and India as the previous history of US shows that i never gets itself involved in a high intensity conflict. They also have some recent examples of Labanon with them where the whole military of Isreal backed by US couldnt even win against a malatia.
 

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
Okay you two, lets bring this away from a US-attacks Pakistan thread.

About the US reaction to a Chinese naval base at Gwadar-I think that it is irrelevant. Of course it will annoy the US, but China is a rising superpower and it will secure its vital economic interests just like all other superpowers. So if China doesn't get a base at Gwadar (which is very unlikely) it will get a base/s somewhere else in the Indian Ocean (Myanmar, Thailand, an African nation) that will allow it to secure the flow of oil to China and get around the Strait of Mallaca chokepoint. Since the Indian Ocean is one of China's essential economic markets and suppliers, and China is a rising superpower with a navy that is approaching blue water status, it will have a military presence there in the coming decade/s. There really isn't much the US can do.
 

john fryer

Just Hatched
Registered Member
From my readings of Chinese interest and involvement in the development of a deep water port at Gwadar. I have an impression that China's primary movtivation is to secure access for an eventual overland route for Middle Eastern oil!

Any military demensions to this project, at least publicly, are by products of the initial economic/energy motivations. I admit this is a greatly simplified summary of things that are in play with China's interest in Gwadar.

And, as alluded to in a couple of the posts above, there is the added benefits of making India give serious thought to adding additional military units to its eastern front with Pakistan.

Peace,

"To Get Rich 'IN SERVICE TO THE PEOPLE' Is Good!"

John Fryer
 

BengalTiger71

New Member
Potential Chinese deployment at Gawder and Coco Island is going to happen eventually. With growing economy, Massive international trading to and fro China, China's need to secure her shipping and unhindered flow of Hydro Carbon will make it imparative. China, beyond next decade will hardly afford to pay consideration to what US or India might think. First of Chinese aircraft carrier will be already leading her carrier group (go to Google earth and see for yourself the making of that carrier at Dahlian Port). A close personal source placed in China tells me that two more Aircraft carriers are planned after they finish the first one.

As for India nad US, I can only say that these nations will also adjust to the new realities and coexist in a world where China is great power and everybody's largest Buisness partner.

Asif
 
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