Global Chinese diplomatic presence and intervention?

solarz said:

I have to disagree here. I think the past 30 years speak for themselves. Since the fall of the USSR, every time the US tried to turn its attention to China, something would force them to direct their attention elsewhere. Meanwhile, China has neutralized every US attempt at undermining: SCS, Diaoyu Island, Trade War, HK. The current TW crisis is only the latest maneuver from the US. At the same time, China is building economic ties with every continent except Antarctica.

The only redline China has with regards to Taiwan is independence. The latest US provocations can be met with proportional retaliatory measures.

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They might be doing some things secretly. I hope so. But US' idiotic global domination fantasies are mostly their own fault. Substantial foreign soldier presence is a redline too BTW. You could argue a few hundred trainers are not substantial. But even then this is a violation of three communiques thus requires downgrading of Sino-American relations. And a serious and explicit warning to Taiwan about how close it is to triggering an invasion. No amount of allegorical messaging from MOFA would suffice.

BoraTas said:

China didn't okay North Korean nuclear program. It was one of the biggest opponents. It still doesn't sell them TELs. In fact that TEL embargo was one of the biggest problems of NK's nuclear program until they started producing good ones 2-3 years ago. North Korea ignored China's opinion and went ahead. Because there was nothing China could do besides invading them. China was complying with sanctions even regarding food and healthcare. So North Korea, in my opinion correctly, decided that China's security guarantee wasn't reliable. You don't watch your ally struggle to find food. Yet China did exactly that for decades.

Talking about exports of modern fighter jets, how many countries are betting the next 30 years of their air force on the F-35? Quite a lot. On the other hand, China's friend Pakistan would order American aircraft if it could. F-22 and F-104 comparison is meaningless, sorry.

Look, I am very pro-China as you can easily see from my other posts. But we need to recognize that there are massive problems with China's foreign policy and communication with the outside world. For example China shouldn't have any problems with US bases in the Philippines in 2023. But it does. If it continues this "avoid any confrontation to avoid any economic loss" policy it will get treated like a shopping mall rather than a great power. This is why I think it should support Russia and invade Taiwan before 2030. China hasn't stood up for its redlines or friends for 40+ years. And that is a bad look. The US is sending 200 soldiers to Taiwan. A redline regardless of how you can bother to twist it. China's reaction will affect its long term credibility.

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Deng's legacy runs deep. You are damn right that being too soft is why China has to now worry about foreign bases in the Philippines. That's because they don't think China can inflict any costs on them. Not military costs, not economic costs. That's why they outright lie about their intent, and what are you going to do about it? They think that if China sanctions them, all they have to do is yell about how China isn't a real free market, and China would be intimidated by that, despite Lithuania being sanctioned while part of the EU and nobody coming to help them.

If having those bases meant sanctions, millions thrown out of work, driven into poverty, not even military action just economic, will they still say yes?

FairAndUnbiased said:

Deng's legacy runs deep. You are damn right that being too soft is why China has to now worry about foreign bases in the Philippines. That's because they don't think China can inflict any costs on them. Not military costs, not economic costs. That's why they outright lie about their intent, and what are you going to do about it? They think that if China sanctions them, all they have to do is yell about how China isn't a real free market, and China would be intimidated by that, despite Lithuania being sanctioned while part of the EU and nobody coming to help them.

If having those bases meant sanctions, millions thrown out of work, driven into poverty, not even military action just economic, will they still say yes?

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It also has to with China not backing anyone. I know a well connected person. He was quite reliable with predicting what Zhongnanhai will decide on some matters. He recently said me there are rumors about Marcos requesting a guarantee from Xi in case he get couped. You know, all of the PH's military high-brass is US connected. Xi declined. Marcos flipped to the US side after that refusal of course. The threat of violence trumped over money once again. Now the PLA might have a one more attack vector to deal with just because China decided to not involve itself with Filipino internal affairs. Non-interventionism at its full glory...

BoraTas said:

It also has to with China not backing anyone. I know a well connected person. He was quite reliable with predicting what Zhongnanhai will decide on some matters. He recently said me there are rumors about Marcos requesting a guarantee from Xi in case he get couped. You know, all of the PH's military high-brass is US connected. Xi declined. Marcos flipped to the US side after that refusal of course. The threat of violence trumped over money once again. Now the PLA might have a one more attack vector to deal with just because China decided to not involve itself with Filipino internal affairs. Non-interventionism at its full glory...

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Stopping adversary intervention is not itself a form of intervention. It is actually 100% in line with the principle of non-interference. It has become an excuse for inaction and hesitation.

FairAndUnbiased said:

Stopping adversary intervention is not itself a form of intervention. It is actually 100% in line with the principle of non-interference. It has become an excuse for inaction and hesitation.

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Really though. China could still claim it is abiding to non interventionism while helping leaders to weed out American influence. And it would be logically true. But we all know why China has been abiding to non-interventionism. It is a policy to avoid confrontation with the West primarily. So China can export more to the West. Ironic, non-interventionism is why the USA can pressure Western nations to buy less Chinese goods without much trouble, nowadays

BoraTas said:

It also has to with China not backing anyone. I know a well connected person. He was quite reliable with predicting what Zhongnanhai will decide on some matters. He recently said me there are rumors about Marcos requesting a guarantee from Xi in case he get couped. You know, all of the PH's military high-brass is US connected. Xi declined. Marcos flipped to the US side after that refusal of course. The threat of violence trumped over money once again. Now the PLA might have a one more attack vector to deal with just because China decided to not involve itself with Filipino internal affairs. Non-interventionism at its full glory...

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What is the guarantee about?

BoraTas said:

It also has to with China not backing anyone. I know a well connected person. He was quite reliable with predicting what Zhongnanhai will decide on some matters. He recently said me there are rumors about Marcos requesting a guarantee from Xi in case he get couped. You know, all of the PH's military high-brass is US connected. Xi declined. Marcos flipped to the US side after that refusal of course. The threat of violence trumped over money once again. Now the PLA might have a one more attack vector to deal with just because China decided to not involve itself with Filipino internal affairs. Non-interventionism at its full glory...

Click to expand...

I must say there's a certain logic to your explanation with regards to Bongbong Marcos Jr. sudden turnaround from being friends to all, enemy to none rhetoric to now becoming an almost full pledged anti-China camp which made me really soured on the guy and confirmed my worst suspicion on that man's Machiavellian ethos. But why was his predecessor (Duterte) able to reign in the so-called pro-American military officers albeit with great political deftness that prevented Duterte from being couped/sidelined even though that man had less of a mandate in terms of popular votes compared to what Marcos Jr. received in the latest Philippine presidential election. Duterte was even more pro-China and openly courted Chinese assistance defying the request of American overtures regarding the use of Huawei network in the Philippines among other things. Where did Duterte got the courage to openly defy America? How did Duterte gained the intelligence that then American ambassador to the PHilippines was planning to oust him via military coup? Surely, that level of counterintelligence could have been aided by an outside help in the form of China no?

While I do share the sentiment that China appears to act mostly as a mercantilist power and appears very calculating and even scared to act that would offend American sensibilities where even to this day despite all the attacks leveled against the country it still strive to work assiduously to avoid antagonizing America/West for the sake of it's vital economic growth. Which further lends credence to the notion and perception that CPC is only a recession away from being toppled a.k.a. China collapse theory. People are too buys concerning itself with making money that it lost its sense of purpose, it's political compass. There's no passion, even its constant admonition of no intervention appears and comes across as cold, heartless, uber calculating borg rather than as a great country willing to fight and die for something worth fighting for.

America for all it's fault manages to keep finding cannon fodders of peoples from all countries because of their high minded rhetorical jujitsu, and political narrative that attracts people from even breaking with their countries culture, families, lineage etc...Ukraine, Taiwan, EU countries etc..can be recruited to fight the last Chinese for an IDEA.

China does not want to lead a world but it has to or it'll find itself soon enough at the foot of another western colonial power. Sometimes, I feel that China acts like that dumb dumb racist Chinese professor that's recently made news in China where he categorically said that going to school is purely to make $$ seek to open your legs to breed with White race due to their superior genes = subordinate role. Make money, make interracial babies with superior race, and avoid any trouble. Who gives a flying f...k if the world burns, China does not owe the world anything. It's a strawman argument but it's a sentiment, even I as a person of Chinese descent feel at times towards the current ruling government.

ACuriousPLAFan said:

What is the guarantee about?

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Security protection. To avoid getting "exiled" like what happened to his father when Marcos Sr. was flew to Hawaii without his awareness. The family thought they were being flown back to Marcos Sr. political power base, which is in Ilocos, Philippines but they were instead peacefully couped and stationed permanently to the island state of Hawaii.

BoraTas said:

China didn't okay North Korean nuclear program. It was one of the biggest opponents. It still doesn't sell them TELs. In fact that TEL embargo was one of the biggest problems of NK's nuclear program until they started producing good ones 2-3 years ago. North Korea ignored China's opinion and went ahead. Because there was nothing China could do besides invading them. China was complying with sanctions even regarding food and healthcare. So North Korea, in my opinion correctly, decided that China's security guarantee wasn't reliable. You don't watch your ally struggle to find food. Yet China did exactly that for decades.

Talking about exports of modern fighter jets, how many countries are betting the next 30 years of their air force on the F-35? Quite a lot. On the other hand, China's friend Pakistan would order American aircraft if it could. F-22 and F-104 comparison is meaningless, sorry.

Look, I am very pro-China as you can easily see from my other posts. But we need to recognize that there are massive problems with China's foreign policy and communication with the outside world. For example China shouldn't have any problems with US bases in the Philippines in 2023. But it does. If it continues this "avoid any confrontation to avoid any economic loss" policy it will get treated like a shopping mall rather than a great power. This is why I think it should support Russia and invade Taiwan before 2030. China hasn't stood up for its redlines or friends for 40+ years. And that is a bad look. The US is sending 200 soldiers to Taiwan. A redline regardless of how you can bother to twist it. China's reaction will affect its long term credibility.

Click to expand...

There's no source whatsoever about China being the "biggest opponent" of NK nuclearization. China doesn't give them TELs because it signed a treaty to the UN not to do so.

If what you claim is true, that means NK is a hostile nuclear power and there's not a snowball's chance they would be allowed to remain on the map. China had no issues fighting both SK and US when it had far less means, if Beijing didn't want a nuclear Pyongyang, it would have couped them, crippled their program with the myriad means they have etc. And Pyongyang today would not have a article 5 style agreement with China that effectively means wherever China goes, NK will follow.

Philippines is an US colony so why should China not have problems that US can move soldiers into its own territories? Did nato have a panic every time USSR moved troops into Poland or East Germany?

What you seem to think is that progress is not fast enough, and what I'm telling you is finding rose tinted glasses into the past when things were much worse is not the solution.

Of course America is dangerous. But that is precisely why they won't go away just by demanding their submission and waving a wand.

We are dealing with the 2nd largest economy in the world, the largest military who has spent a long time slowly building up, using influence and violence to buy and takeover other countries.

Germany in ww2 was not this big, and the allies let them cross 3 major red lines, 1. Building up a massive military and taking back the Rhineland. 2. Annexing Austria. 3. Demanding Eastern territories, before war started in earnest.

Supporting Russia is already fully ongoing. There's no hurry to make Russians win fast. China is ready to defend Taiwan from America whenever US does its thing, but like I stated above, the war America is trying to start is greater than any war we have ever seen, and they're a bigger aggressor than that ever seen before. So the utmost tact and careful approach will be needed.

Bellum_Romanum said:

I must say there's a certain logic to your explanation with regards to Bongbong Marcos Jr. sudden turnaround from being friends to all, enemy to none rhetoric to now becoming an almost full pledged anti-China camp which made me really soured on the guy and confirmed my worst suspicion on that man's Machiavellian ethos. But why was his predecessor (Duterte) able to reign in the so-called pro-American military officers albeit with great political deftness that prevented Duterte from being couped/sidelined even though that man had less of a mandate in terms of popular votes compared to what Marcos Jr. received in the latest Philippine presidential election. Duterte was even more pro-China and openly courted Chinese assistance defying the request of American overtures regarding the use of Huawei network in the Philippines among other things. Where did Duterte got the courage to openly defy America? How did Duterte gained the intelligence that then American ambassador to the PHilippines was planning to oust him via military coup? Surely, that level of counterintelligence could have been aided by an outside help in the form of China no?

While I do share the sentiment that China appears to act mostly as a mercantilist power and appears very calculating and even scared to act that would offend American sensibilities where even to this day despite all the attacks leveled against the country it still strive to work assiduously to avoid antagonizing America/West for the sake of it's vital economic growth. Which further lends credence to the notion and perception that CPC is only a recession away from being toppled a.k.a. China collapse theory. People are too buys concerning itself with making money that it lost its sense of purpose, it's political compass. There's no passion, even its constant admonition of no intervention appears and comes across as cold, heartless, uber calculating borg rather than as a great country willing to fight and die for something worth fighting for.

America for all it's fault manages to keep finding cannon fodders of peoples from all countries because of their high minded rhetorical jujitsu, and political narrative that attracts people from even breaking with their countries culture, families, lineage etc...Ukraine, Taiwan, EU countries etc..can be recruited to fight the last Chinese for an IDEA.

China does not want to lead a world but it has to or it'll find itself soon enough at the foot of another western colonial power. Sometimes, I feel that China acts like that dumb dumb racist Chinese professor that's recently made news in China where he categorically said that going to school is purely to make $$ seek to open your legs to breed with White race due to their superior genes = subordinate role. Make money, make interracial babies with superior race, and avoid any trouble. Who gives a flying f...k if the world burns, China does not owe the world anything. It's a strawman argument but it's a sentiment, even I as a person of Chinese descent feel at times towards the current ruling government.

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If you buy that crap about an idea you're brainwashed yourself.

Isn't anything but money. 2nd largest economy buys a lot of friends, especially when some countries are your ex colonies where you installed all the corrupt to ensure they'll forever be bottom feeding.

Duterte for all his faults was a clean politican. There was no corrupt leads to be found. Marcos is not, as so he can be bought with both carrot and stick.

The third world are rotten, filled with scum because they're tainted by colonialism. They lack a belief in freedom and lack high trust. That makes them the prey of capitalists, because the lower capitalist will always seek the higher capitalist, that is, the United States because it is the biggest capitalist society.

One can lament this as much as one want but it is hardly constructive. Instead, China needs to gather all the ex Soviet, build them up further, and head towards a decisive clash, where afterwards, the colonized will be persuaded to accept a new master, one which will actually grant them freedom once they've been cured of mental disorders.

In their current state, these societies just cannot function without having a capitalist master. Even if they get a Duterte for one cycle, he can be quickly removed and replaced with a puppet for the oligarchs.