Germany Carl Zeiss, heart of Dutch ASML Lithography Equipment.

Status
Not open for further replies.

adiru

Junior Member
Registered Member
didn't know you even replied. I'll continue that discussion there.

>too much information for the casual reader, far too little information for a tech company.

How would you even know if you're not in the industry?

>saying Ren Zhengfei doesn't know what he's doing

Ok. He shouldn't have said that.

>big picture of the trend of success and how equipped they are economically and manpower-wise to succeed again.

You're missing the point. They are failing at things that require next to no brain power and very little money yet they fail hard. Just their PR performance against the US during covid19 is a great example of their failures.

>epic success

This is that over confidence again. In many, not all, areas, which is the point I was making. BTW, if the were failing at things that were super hard like EUV, I wouldn't be so worried because that's truly challenging. Yet, they're consistently failing at certain easy tasks, which is very alarming.

> And after the Snowden and Assuage incidents, or Kim Dot Com, she should have known to avoid flights crossing over in countries with US extradiction friendlies....

Thanks for another great example of the ludicrous levels of incompetence. Here's the CFO of a national champion doing this. It just boggles the mind. Who else is using western spyware? CFO of Huawei uses Apples spy gear. This is unreal.

Thats not even the worst part, she was tricked into giving them the password instead of asking for lawyer right away, what they did was unethical but the fact she fell for it is just sad....


Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

adiru

Junior Member
Registered Member
That seems completely implausible. If that were to be the case, then the US would stop trying attack China and China would dismantle some of its programs. Instead, we see the US trying to do everything in its power to stunt China and China pouring money and resources getting fast improvements in its fields. MIC 2025 isn't mentioned anymore because now it's MIC ASAP! This has all the markings of a full on tech war instead of any side making concessions.

Every country has a public policy they feed their people and an internal policy for themselves. Xi cant be seen to publically back off on MIC2025 the same way Trump has to at least appear hard on China to placate his base esp being election year. Trump is an actor, he been in showbiz his whole life and knows how to play the part.

Im not suggesting US isnt going all out on China, but I am raising possibility that Chinese gov secretly made some concessions be it unilateral or otherwise and hence why the lackluster preparedness, seems like they are intentionally slowing down in this area for whatever bigger picture motives and reasons unbeknowest to us the public at the moment
 

WTAN

Junior Member
Registered Member
On the contrary, I wish all the success to Chinese SMEE companies.

As for you, I am putting you on my ignore list as you just continue to produce useless noise.

I will put you on my ignore list as well as your comments are basically BullS. ASML is always the best & Chinese Litho machines will never beat it. LOL!
Stop replying to my posts as well. Good night!
 

WTAN

Junior Member
Registered Member
You are trying to move the goal post .... who else developing EUV, NOT using it!!!
[/QUOTE
You are trying to move the goal post .... who else developing EUV, NOT using it!!!

Okay.......i will give you my answer.

Japan is trying to develop EUV Lithography machines as well.
When ASML started, Japanese companies Nikon & Canon was developing EUV as well but eventually gave up. ASML won.
Recently Japanese company Gigaphoton developed a 200W LPP light source for EUV. Japanese company Ushio also bought up German company Xtreme which makes DPP light source for EUV machine.
Japanese Govt is planning for Canon and Nikon to get back into manufacturing EUV machines again.
But Japan knows it cant compete with ASML and needs eventually to go into the China market.
Gigaphoton recently set up a Office to do more business in China.
Will there be a Japan China Joint Venture in EUV machines in the future?
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
I don't think people should be too pessimistic looking back in history China faces much more daunted challenge and even poor back then. But eventually she prevailed. China practically under technical embargo from 1949 and yet she produced all her weapon domestically. Now with much stronger and richer China, she will face the challenge head on. China has complete semiconductor equipment Not the best but she has and given time she will improve. via xyz. china did have some excellent center like NAURA and AMEC, Changcun, SMEE

A lot of people here get their news from non specialist western MSM which is heavily bias with their spin of doom and gloom. But all is not lost read this excellent article here.

If anything I think the recent restriction will motivate China even more to double down their effort to be independent in chip manufacturing technology. And create a market because now the FAB has no choice
1589979738303.png
1589979775000.png
1589979694239.png
1589979848928.png
1589979884694.png
1589979966380.png
 
Last edited:

adiru

Junior Member
Registered Member
He can present a plan, but I didn't see one that wasn't made of Google-able information that would be educational to us but completely useless to a real company. I like to embarrass people who have no humility. A guy with nothing who curses on forums saying Ren Zhengfei doesn't know what he's doing?? Yeah, he needs to be embarrassed for that.

Well there are alot of information out there in google but if you are not in the industry you will not know which information is useful and nor you able to understand. The top level management need have clear idea of overall picture. Huawei is mostly system not a semiconductor company therefore lacking expertise and overall understanding in certain areas

Huawei underestimated the severity of US crackdown as Ren zhengfei said they kind of prepared for this but was surprised by the extent and severity by US effort. Huawei prepared well on chip design but failed at its OS and chip manufacturing. Its HMS has very limited software at the beginning and Huawei phones are not selling good overseas. They should have launched HMS long time ago to build up more apps and customer base oversea.
And like tidalwave said, huawei should have gone into chip manufacturing long time ago because the geopolitical risk.
 

SPOOPYSKELETON

Junior Member
Registered Member
Wait, tidalwave was banned? This is unfortunate and a serious loss to the forum.

To return to the discussion, ppl here think China only has 2 options here. She either goes 100% internal tech or capitulates to the West. 1st is unrealistic, 2nd is unacceptable.

Clearly a third option is needed.

The reason America can dictate the terms of trade like this because it is the center of the modern world. Financially, militarily, and culturally, America occupies the dominant position in all 3. As a result, the Western bloc countries are all deferential to the center while the periphery are screwed.

This is the fundamental issue from which the Taiwanese question, semicon issue, sanctions issue, etc spring from.

It is only through the disintegration of this global alliance that TSMC can be resolved.

The Brookings strategy mentioned earlier is highly illustrative of this. It essentially attempts to create a global CARTEL of semiconductor equipment. But CARTELS are by their nature unstable, there is always the incentive to defect and claim a larger share alone.

The Chinese semicon strategy should have a Diplomatic wing working in concert with it. It should be looking for opportunities to make the weakest members of the cartel defect.

The Chinese strategy also needs to recognize that it is still on the periphery of the world, and change its mindset to match. Since the primary conflict is "center" vs "periphery", and since no change is possible for anyone on the periphery until the center is weakened, it follows that all movements, nations., and ideologies on the periphery have common cause. The objective is disintegration anything that speeds that process along should be considered.
 

SPOOPYSKELETON

Junior Member
Registered Member
You can't just assert this and move on. Demonstrate why it's unrealistic for China to have a 100% internal semiconductor sector when it's already represented in all parts of the supply chain, it's just that not all of it's equipment is at the cutting edge.

I consider it unrealistic for the same reason I consider America's full spectrum dominance to be unrealistic. Its attempting to do too much with too little.

Saying "not all of it is cutting edge" is an understatement. Actually, if my research is correct, NONE of it is cutting edge. It is still in the catchup phase.

One possibility that occurred to me is having HiSilicon export its designs to other foreign companies. That would give them a stake in the continued health of HiSilicon instead of an interest in letting the US crush it. This is essentially China's strategy for other sectors (give foreign companies a stake so that they lobby for continued business).

And since Huawei is already top notch in this area, it is something achievable in the near future, as opposed to 5-10 years down the line. In 5 years, the strategic landscape will have already changed so much that these things may not even matter then.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top