If ASEAN were the only issue, that would be valid.Again you're nitpicking what I said and putting them out of context. What I said was consistent with what I said before: if China has the equal number of super carriers as what the USN assign and deployed to the Indo-Pacific region, it would be enough to deter any ASEAN countries from trying to ally with the US to try to antagonize China. Does China has the same number of super carrier now as USN in the Indo-Pacific region? NO. So your counter argument is meaningless.
But ask yourself this, how large a blue-water Navy would be required to deter Australia or Japan from allowing US military bases to be used offensively against the Chinese mainland?
China matching only the US Navy forces deployed in the Indo-Pacific is not enough.
The Chinese Navy would need to demonstrate that it can *easily* obtain sea control in the waters of the deep Pacific, which requires the Chinese Navy to have a significant margin of superiority over the entire US blue-water fleet.
Yes, it will take time for China to develop mature carrier platforms and build up a fleet.
But if relations are still bad after 2030, it should be feasible for China to fund the construction of 8 large carrier strike groups in a decade, from Dalian shipyard and Jiangnan shipyard. Afterwards, the construction rate can drop down to a more sustainable level.