Chinese Economics Thread

supercat

supercat

Major
Tam said:
GDP by PPP is a better metric for measuring the size of an economy.

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Actually, the PPP mentioned in the above article is based on the IMF's most recent adjustment of China's GDP based on 2017 currency values, which actually reduced China's GDP by about 18% in PPP terms, because of the relative high inflation rate in China in recent years. Here is the most recent numbers, based on IMF's October, 2020 estimate:

China's nominal GDP in 2020 in US$ is estimated to be $15.22 trillion. The U.S. GDP in 2020 will be $20.81. In 2025, China's will be $23.09 trillion, while U.S.' will be $25.78.

The above numbers are based on the following interactive map that you can play with:
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More info base on IMF's October 2020 estimate:
GDP based on PPP (trillions of international dollars):
202020212022202320242025
China24.1626.7328.7830.9933.3635.88
U.S.20.8121.9222.9723.9124.8325.78
China/U.S.1.1611.2191.2531.2951.3441.392

Interactive map where above numbers come from:
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GDP based on PPP, share of world (also based on IMF's October 2020 estimate):
202020212022202320242025
China18.56%19.12%19.42%19.78%20.18%20.57%
U.S.15.98%15.68%15.50%15.27%15.02%14.78%
China/U.S.1.1611.2191.2531.2951.3441.392

Interactive map:
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From above, you can see that according to IMF's newest estimate, by 2025, although China's GDP will be about 10% less than the U.S.' in nominal terms, it will be 39% bigger than the U.S.' in PPP terms. Furthermore, while U.S.' global share of GDP will decreased from current 15.98% to 14.78%, China's will increase from 18.56% to 20.57%.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Ouch.

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The European Union wants underwear. And China has got it covered.

Upended by the coronavirus pandemic, the global textile and garment supply chain is shifting its focus back to China ahead of the busy year-end period as overseas customers have turned away from India, which is still battling an out-of-control pandemic.

In Zhaoqing city, in China’s manufacturing hub of Guangdong province, an executive at an underwear factory that supplies a high-profile overseas brand said they had no export orders in April or May, resulting in workers being laid off. But in August and last month, as the pandemic continued to spread in Southeast Asia, foreign orders returned.

“We will have an order for 800,000 sets of underwear next month for the EU market,” the executive said on condition of anonymity, as he was not authorised to talk to the media. “We will be very busy next month, and now we are recruiting some workers to fill the order. The brand had not placed orders [with us] for a while.”

According to figures from Johns Hopkins University, India has recorded more than 7.3 million coronavirus infections – second most behind the United States – and 112,000 deaths, which is the third most behind the US and Brazil.


As a backbone of the Indian economy, the textile and apparel industry is its largest source of foreign exchange earnings, accounting for about 15 per cent of its export earnings and 2 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product.

Gaurav Sharma, a fashion sourcing professional based in Hong Kong, said the lockdown in India has severely affected the delivery of Christmas orders. Normally these orders need to reach buyers in November to be on shelves by December.

“So, what customers are doing is, instead of keeping those deliveries in India, they are moving them to other countries, like China, where fabrics are available and garments can be made quickly,” Sharma said. “Or it could be
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, where fabrics need to be imported, so the production takes longer.

“Everyone I know working in the Indian textile and garment industry is in a defensive mode. They understand the problems on two sides. On one side, customers are placing fewer orders. On the other side, they are not sure about productions. When a lockdown happens, they have to make corrections accordingly, like by downsizing production lines or looking for short-term orders that can be turned around quickly.”

With its production capacity having improved from lockdowns earlier this year, China’s textile and garment manufacturing industry has shown promising signs of recovery in the second half of the year.

Thanks largely to strong demand for masks amid the pandemic, monthly year-on-year growth of textile exports has been in the double digits since April. And growth of apparel exports also turned positive in August for the first time since March.

Li Xinggan, director of the Department of Foreign Trade under the Ministry of Commerce, said in a media briefing on Wednesday that without masks, China’s textile exports would have fallen by double digits this year. Li also said that the shift in orders from India to China in recent months was normal market behaviour.

Meanwhile, shipment demand from the US and Europe, particularly for home goods, has remained strong, leading to a slew of logistics issues including port congestion,
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, and soaring sea freight rates.
While the returning orders are good news for Chinese manufacturers, most see the trend as a short-term adjustment, and it will not stop buyers from looking for suppliers outside China amid rising geopolitical tensions between Washington and Beijing.

A senior executive with a Taiwan-based manufacturer that has factories in China and India, who asked not to be identified, also said most of their export orders were currently being produced at plants in Guangdong, after production capacity in India was hit by the pandemic.


“This will not affect our plans to continue to expand production capacity out of China,” she said. “The political and epidemic uncertainties are very high for the coming years. It is necessary for every international brand to deploy production capacity in different regions for different markets. We will continue to require our downstream suppliers to set up factories outside of China.”

Lisa Cai, a Chinese garment-exporting manufacturer, said orders have indeed returned in recent months from Bangladesh, Vietnam and India, but most were mainly short-term orders for the coming Christmas and Thanksgiving holiday seasons. She also cited the pandemic’s impact on production capacities in Southeast Asia.

“As soon as the pandemic eases, the factories there can resume production, and orders will still be placed out of China,” Cai said. “After all, Chinese companies no longer have any cost advantages in middle- and low-end apparel manufacturing, let alone tariff preferences.”
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solarz

solarz

Brigadier
AssassinsMace said:
This should be a lesson for Beijing too because they think if they're taking the high road, everyone will recognize it and China will be rewarded. Did Australia recognize China taking that high road? Australia took anti-China action to impress Trump at China's expense and only until China started hitting them back now they all of the sudden want to talk. Beijing's inactions, aka the high road, only told the Australians they can get away with it. Hit them immediately and then they'll think twice. China should turn the screws more and let them boil a while before thinking about talking to them.
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China needs to make an example of Australia, show all those American allies that the US is not going to help them when they start hurting.
 
B

bomberman

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think "The Last Mile" to alleviate poverty is most difficult. It is easy for government to hand out money, but implementing plans that can help people to get out of generational poverty is very difficult.

Live: The Last Mile - How did China's once-poor counties remove their 'hats of poverty'?

Today’s special coverage of "The Last Mile" shows a comprehensive picture of China's poverty alleviation achievements. CGTN’s Tao Yuan is in Santai County, southwest China’s Sichuan Province, with a square dance performance team in the ancient city of Tongchuan. While reporter Zhou Jiaxin is in Zhecheng, central China's Henan Province, to present the chili peppers and other special agricultural products of Zhecheng and the results of the battle against poverty in the county.

 
Hendrik_2000

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Well finally they pass the export control act
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China passes export-control law following U.S. moves

A Chinese national flag is seen at a port in Beihai
Sun, October 18, 2020, 1:34 AM CDT


SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China passed a law restricting exports of controlled items, allowing the government to act against countries that abuse export controls in a way that harm's China's interests, state media said.
The Xinhua news report late on Saturday did not name any target countries, but the United States last month angered Beijing with curbs on exports to Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp <0981.HK>, China's biggest chipmaker, and it has taken various steps against Huawei Technologies Co and other companies.

China and the United States have clashed over issues including trade, human rights, technology and the new coronavirus, which was first detected in China.
The new Chinese law, passed on Saturday by the National People's Congress Standing Committee, the country's top legislative body, will take effect on Dec. 1, Xinhua said.

Controlled items include military and nuclear products, as well as other goods, technologies and services and relevant data, according to a statement on the National People's Congress website.
It said the law was "formulated for the purpose of safeguarding national security and interests."
In August, China's commerce ministry issued a revised list of technologies that are banned or restricted for export.
(Reporting by Emily Chow; Editing by William Mallard)
 
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