I don't think China cares much about starting an arms race because, let's be honest, nobody is even remotely close to China's pre-arms race capacity to even try keeping up if China do choose to ramp up.
Prior to the Trump's arrival, China wasn't interested in an arms race.
But the Trump has abandoned the "rules-based-order" and now it is the law of the jungle, so there's no alternative but for China to really build up its military.
IMO China simply don't consider carriers to be as critical to its doctrine and strategic planning. I think because US doctrine revolves around carriers and made it a symbol of their naval power, a lot of people ends up look at carriers more as a symbol than for its utility.
I would agree to a certain extent. You don't need carriers to secure the First Island Chain, as this is within reach of land-based aircraft. And until the First Island Chain is secure, there's no point in devoting excessive resources for expensive aircraft carriers for distant operations.
But as the First Island Chain becomes "secure", then the objective becomes securing the Second Island Chain and preventing these bases being used to attack China. This would require the Chinese Navy building a lot more aircraft carriers for blue-water operations, beyond the range of land-based fighters.
But even ignoring all the analysis, we can already see from Iran war that carriers' offensive capacity in the age of missiles and drones is a lot smaller than 30+ years ago while their vulnerability became much larger.
They still have enormous utility in achieving local air dominance, providing defensive fighter screen against incoming aerial threats and in some instances anti shipping, but unless you're bombing civilians, the role of offensive strikes against real militarizes are mainly the job of drones and missiles. As such you don't really need as many carriers as force design based on using carriers for air to ground strikes.
Carriers are still essential for naval air superiority. And if we're talking about a blue-water confrontation, the side with more aircraft carriers and fighter jets wins. So the pacing threat is eleven nuclear-powered supercarriers.
I think the fact that China built Type 076 and are investing heavily in drone strike platforms basically corroborate this theory and explains why China isn't rushing to build more supercarriers, even though it can easily do so.
And I think the reason western analysists would give wild predictions on China's carrier count is because they're applying US naval force design on their assumed Chinese strategic objectives.
As stated previously, there's no point in expensive building carriers for distant operations when the First island Chain has not yet been "secured" with land-based aircraft. But given observed production rates of Chinese stealth fighters, we can see this happening.
Also, China doesn't have mature supercarrier designs ready for mass production yet.
The first carrier with catapults was only commissioned last year.
The first nuclear-powered carrier is still under construction.
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I agree that the Type-076 will complement fast nuclear-powered carriers.
Consider that the J-15 generally takes off with a wheel speed of <280km/h.
An aircraft carrier travelling at 32knots would add 60km/h, for a total of 340km/h
In comparison, let's say a Type-076 travels at 22 knots (40km/h), for a total of 320km/h
The difference between 22 and 32 knots is 3x in terms of engine output and fuel consumption, given the speed to power relationship.
But you only get 6% extra airflow over the wing. (320km/h -> 340km/h), for a lot more expense.
High performance fighter jets do benefit from this extra airflow.
But many aircraft (with a greater wing area and designed to be more efficient) don't need that marginal increase in speed.
But again, the first Type-076 is still awaiting commissioning, so the design isn't ready for mass production yet.
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In addition, they have to start practicing combined operations with multiple carriers and Type-076, along with the new aircraft, to really know what is the best combination to buy
