Future PLAN Forecast Thread: Number, disposition, etc.

Obi Wan Russell

Jedi Master
VIP Professional
Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

FYI, RFA Argus has the largest hangar of any British carrier active today (I've been inside it, and both Invincibles and Ark Royals, it's huge!) Practically the whole hull above the waterline from the superstructure aft is hangar, with a side loading door at the stern too and two lifts. argus Hangar is divided in to three bays which can be isolated by fire doors and at 28'000tons she has a capacity on a par with HMS Hermes. The F-35s dimensions have been kept down to a size that would fit on an Invincibles lifts (Argus and Ocean have lifts the same size) probably with a view to export sales, as most of the worlds small CVs have lifts the same size, and this has been one of the primary British influences on the design so far. Ski Jumps are certainly desireable, but not essential for Harrier ops (no US LHA/LHD has a ski jump and they manage) and the RN is probably happy for people to think Ocean and Argus are not capable of full Harrier/JSF operations. After all, they were happy for everyone to think Ark Royal (IV) was to be the last British carrier whilst they were building three Invincibles. If the politicians find out that smaller carriers can do the job, they might use that as another excuse to cancel the CVFs, and I believe the RN already has contingency plans for smaller ships if that does happen. In the meantime, they will continue to emphasise how necessary the CVFs are.

China will most likely produce LPHs at some point to supplement the CV force, but unless they can acquire STOVL aircraft (reverse engineered Harriers perhaps?) the only way to take fighters to sea will be aboard Varyag and similar sized ships. Once they have built one indigenous vessel, it will make sense to continue production albeit at a low rate (one at a time from one shipyard most likely) and build the PLAN CV force slowly over decades.
 

bd popeye

The Last Jedi
VIP Professional
Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

Obi Wan I'm going to comment on the Argus in the World Aircraft carrier thread!

bd popeye moderator
 
D

Deleted member 675

Guest
Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

FYI, RFA Argus has the largest hangar of any British carrier active today

Well I didn't know much about Argus before, so thanks for letting me know. :)

Once they have built one indigenous vessel, it will make sense to continue production albeit at a low rate (one at a time from one shipyard most likely) and build the PLAN CV force slowly over decades.

Well that's fair enough, though I'm still not convinced they'll immediately build a third carrier after the second.
 

Obi Wan Russell

Jedi Master
VIP Professional
Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

Well that's fair enough, though I'm still not convinced they'll immediately build a third carrier after the second.

I agree. The PLAN will most likely pause after the first of class is complete to absorb any lessons they learn from it's first commission, although the gap may only be a couple of years. The second of class may begin construction once the first CV has been launched, but proceed slowly in order to incorporate any changes necessary. Alternatively construction may be suspended for a few years to make sure the design is right, then resume.
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

Ground-support? You mean shore-based missiles? Hmm, I don't see the JMSDF wandering over towards China to start a punch-up. If there was an engagement I think it would out-of-range of shore-based facilities. The only thing you could throw in would be land-based planes - but then again the Japanese could bring the JASDF into the equation, so really you can't rely on air support, bar long-ranged planes like P-3 Orions.


We have seen JH-7s show they are capable of flying to and buzzing around the particular areas in the East China sea where China and Japan has a dispute with natural gas reserves. That's something the Flankers and H-6s could definitely roam as well.
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

I don't know about 3 to 4 carriers. While PLAN has ambition to expand its zone of power projection, China does not want to appear to play the role of global cop which appears to be the inevitable destiny---and inescapable responsibility----of a global military superpower.
 

chicket9

New Member
Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

Ideal PLAN...


In first scenario - Keeping off high tech medium navies at 1500 miles...and as well as holding off US and Japanese fleets....

Aviation:

* 150 Su-30MK2/3 - you need as many of these to overwhelm a well defended task force of any enemy, especially the US/Jap fleets.
* 150 JH-7A - same thing as before.
* 90 J-10 - the navy needs escorts under its command, though this will take time as J-10's priorities lie with air force for now.
* 30+ Be-200 MPA
* 20+ Ka-31 AEW
* 20+ Y8 MPA/AEW/EC variants


Submarines: 60-63 submarines

* 12 Yuans
* 14 Songs
* 12 Kilos
* 12 Modernized late Mings
* 5-8 093 SSN
* 4 094 SSBN
* 1 improved Xia


Destroyers: 33-35 destroyers

* 6 Sovremennys
* 14 052C
* 2 052B
* 2 052
* 1 051B
* 4-6 051C
* 4 Improved Luda (still to remain in service)


Frigates: 49 Frigates

* 20 054A
* 14 Jiangwei I/II
* 12 improved Jianghu (mainly for coastal defense)
* 3 Jianghu III/IV


Littoral Warfare

* 40 2208 Missile FAC
* 24 Houxin Missile FAC
* 5 Houjian Missile FAC

* 30+ Haiqing FAC
* 30+ Hainan FAC (to remain in service)



Out of this, there are primarily the following issues for this 'ideal navy'
1) The need of hundreds more of modern maritime strike/patrol aircraft, which PLANAF currently is quite weak in terms of.
2) Need to quickly evaluate new designs, and series produce them in dozens.

Current PLAN is probably 60% the way there...with most of the R&D completed...now its a matter of expansion, training, series production.
 

adeptitus

Captain
VIP Professional
Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

IMO there's little indication that the PLAN has settled on the 054A for mass production. It's difficult to predict when the PLAN would find a DDG and FFG that they're truely happy with. But for purpose of this discussion, I'll borrow from the Korean naming convention and assume the PLAN settled on "CDX" (Chinese Destroyer X) and "CFX" (Chinese Frigate X) in 2007 for mass production model.

You can make your own assumptions on what CDX and CFX represent, they could be 051D, 052D, 054B, or something different. For purpose of discussion we'll assume CDX's capability to be somewhere between Korean KDX-II and KDX-III, with emphasis on air defense arament, and the CFX's capability to be similiar to the La Fayette, with emphasis on ASW capability (towed sonar, ASW rocket/missile, etc.).


We'll look 10 years into the future (2006-2016), and assume a "reasonable" production rate of:
2 x CDX per year
2 x CFX per year
3 x LHDx over 10 years (~17,000 tonnes, with LPX or Osumi-class like configuration)
3 x 094 SSBN's over 10 years
3 x 093 SSN's over 10 years
2 x SSKx per year (improved Yuan-class SSK)

Some of you may argue that there are more shipyards that could produce Frigates, therefore the CFX production rate should be faster. However in my scenario we'll assume those "extra" shipyards are retrofitting up to 60 older ships over the 10-year span.

Currently, the PLAN is organized into 3 fleets, supplemented by military police, local militia, coast guard, etc. I'd merge all coast guard related operations into a single unified coast guard command. The new org would look like this:

North Sea Fleet
East Sea Fleet
South Sea Fleet
Training Reserve Fleet
Coast Guard Fleet (Unified)


The 3 primary fleet's organization will follow hybrid Korean-Japanese model. Each fleet will contain:

* Fleet Escort Group (Japanese 8-8 model)
* Fleet Submarine Group
* Fleet Rapid Response Group (Korean model)
* Fleet Air Group (PLANAF)
* Coastal Defense Flotilla Group (FAC's)


Fleet Escort Group

The North and East Sea Fleets will receive prioirty in new equipment. Their Fleet Escort Group would each contain:
8 x Destroyers (6xCDX, 2xSovremenny)
8 x CFX Frigates

The South Sea Fleet's Escort Group will make do with older (by 2016 standards) ships:
8 x Destroyers (2x052, 2x052B, 4xCDX Destroyers)
8 x Jiangwei-II Frigates (upgraded)

Fleet Submarine Group

The North and East Sea Submarine Group will have:
1 x 094 SSBN
1 x 093 SSN (SSBN escort)
8 x SSKx (improved 039 SSK)
4 x Kilo SSK

The South Sea Submarine Group will have:
1 x 094 SSBN
1 x 093 SSN (SSBN escort)
8 x 039 SSK
6 x 035 (ES5F)

The existing fleet of old Xia class SSBN and Han class SSN will be placed in reserve.

Fleet Rapid Response Group

The North and East Sea Fleet's Rapid Response Group will each contain contain:
1 x LHD
4 x CDX
4 x CFX
2 x SSKx
+ assorted support ships, plus any pulled from Escort Fleet as needed

The South Sea Fleet's Rapid Response Group will contain:
1 x LHD
4 x Destroyers (2x052C, 2x051C)
4 x Frigates (2x054, 2x054A)
2 x Kilo SSK


Training Reserve Fleet

The training reserve fleet will serve all 3 major fleet groups under an unified PLAN training administration. Its roster includes:

1 x 051B Destroyer
2 x Jiangwei-II Frigate
4 x Jiangwei-I Frigate
2 x Luda-III, re-classified as training Frigates
9 x Jianghu III/V Frigates
10x 035 SSK
+ assorted other ships

These surface warfare ships should be refitted with modern CIWS, HQ-7, SSM (YJ-83?), and helicopter deck/hanger where feasible. The training reserve fleet will also supplement other fleets (i.e. Escort Group) whenever needed.


Unitied Coast Guard Fleet

The Unified Coast Guard Fleet will receive:
~12 Luda-I/II, re-classified as Coast Guard Frigates
~20 Jianghu I/II/IV, re-classified as Coast Guard Light Frigates (FFL)

The Coast Guard ships will have its SSM's and some aft weapons removed, and replaced by Helicopter deck & hanger. These ships can be deployed to the South China Sea and perform EEZ/maritime patrol missions. Speed boats will also need to be installed for boarding inspections.

These Coast Guard FFG and FFL roughly follows the US Coast Guard's WHEC (High Endurance Cutter) and WMEC (Medium Endurance Cutter) model. These ships should also receive CIWS gun upgrades.


==============

By 2016, the PLAN should have the next generation, CDX-II and CFX-II, ready for production. The CDX-II should have similiar capability to the KDX-III, and the CFX-II to the Horizon class CNGF or FREMM multipurpose frigate. This assumption places the PLAN approx. 10 years behind S. Korea & France in surface warship technology by 2016.

The new fleet describe above is, IMO, within PLAN's reach (realistic?) and modest in numbers and capability. With good training and equipment, it'd be on-par with the Japanese navy today, though we cannot predict what the Japanese navy will be like 10 years from now.
 
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crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

IMO there's little indication that the PLAN has settled on the 054A for mass production. It's difficult to predict when the PLAN would find a DDG and FFG that they're truely happy with. But for purpose of this discussion, I'll borrow from the Korean naming convention and assume the PLAN settled on "CDX" (Chinese Destroyer X) and "CFX" (Chinese Frigate X) in 2007 for mass production model.

They also need time to sort things out. IMO, the PLAN is also happy enough with the Sovremannies to have ordered at least four and with the 051B design to approve the 051C. But they may also think they cannot invest too much in one type [at least with bigger ships] because all designs can be quickly be obsolete. You need to continiously evolve and improve your designs nonstop. Transition forever can be a good thing because you are always striving for the better.

The 054/054A design still appears to be in further evaluation and evolution. I don't think the story for that has ended yet.
 
Re: Ideal Chinese Navy

I agree with Adepitus's model, I beleive the PLA would benefit from developing along that route. However, I dont think that each fleet should have its own SSBN, but rather have all the SSBNs and SSBN Escorts under one unified command either under the PLAN or Second Artillery.
 
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