Future PLAN Forecast Thread: Number, disposition, etc.

[USAalltheway]

Consider the PLA of 2020: Most likely consisting of an all-modernized Russian built navy (primarily guided missile destroyers and submarines), consisting of an also all-modernized air force (Su-27, Su-30, and Su-35 vintage aircraft and Tu-22s), and a leaner but meaner military with greater force projection capability and improved training and equipment (probably all Type-98 and Type 99s). Anti-air system would probably be all modernized also with all S-300 and S-400. Though training would sill be behind Western and US training methods the equipment and numbers would centainly be comparable.

Sorry about my first post, it was a bit nationalistic (I was new and wasn't sure what to say).

Notwithstanding, do you think the PLA of 2020 will be enough to be a match for any forces the US could put in the region?

US forces in the region would probably compose of 2 or 3 or so CBGs with guided missile destroyers and cruisers with improved hypersonic ASMs (think TSSAM) and over the horizon targeting. Submarine and ASW capability would probably remain about the same as it is now. Expect perhaps 2 or 3 squadrons of modern 5th generation fighters (F-22s and JSF) and expect stealth aircraft operating in the region (B-2s and F-117).

 

[Totoro]

I do hope moderators won't scold me for feeding a potential flame war and taking a flame bait but i feel like writing a bit Feel free to lock the thread if you feel something illegal has been written.

I don't believe it is likely at all that most of of PLA equipment will be russian. Some SAM systems, sure, some j11s of course, perhaps a fair deal of leftover russian built vessels in the PLAN, but certainly not a majority.

That being said, neither a predominantly russian built nor predominantly chinese built force would be a match for US military in 2020, in a non nuclear but otherwise full scale air and sea war scenario. Land invasion is out of the question but in air and in the sea, if US has time it needs to prepare and if it can afford to put its entire might into the theatre (over the time, not even all at the same time as there's not nearly enough bases for that) - PLA would not be a match. Match meaning that they inflict same amount of damage to US as US does to PLA.

That is all considering US is sending force to the region close to china, not vice versa. Latter variant will still be next to impossible in 2020. Anyway, to get back to US sending forces near china and attacking. IF by match one means that, while ultimately losing, PLA does inflict severe losses to US - then yes, in 2020 that'd be quite likely. Of course severe losses is a relative term but i'll go out on a limb and say a damaged/inoperative csg or two with several air wings from other carriers destroyed, but bulk of the losses would be downed USAF planes over china and damaged/inoperable air bases including japanese ones (kadena for sure, others depending on japan's political standpoint) as well as the likes of guam and perhaps diego garcia.

On the other hand PLAN would be obliterated and PLAAF would be scaled down to perhaps few hundred planes that managed to be hidden on the ground and evade action. ground forces losing some of biggest, most expensive equipment but as far as soldiers go, mostly intact.

Training is something that can not be guessed in 2020. Thats not only 15 years since the PLA reform began after GW1 but 15 years more after that into the future. Impossible to tell. Thing is, western way of training, unlike western technology, doesn't really have any room to advance. It is quite likely china would catch up, if it wishes to do so.

Now, if we're talking about scenario that you mention in the end of your post, listing the US force as 3 CSGs and 3 squadrons of f22, with some b2s thrown in for a more realistic measure (f117 would definitely be all retired by then), that'd make chinese job somewhat easier. that is some 72 f22, 90 f35 and lets say 72 f18ef versus entire PLAAF of 2020. Plus theres quite a PLAN force present for which a decent part of CSG airwings would have to be redirected to deal with. Sure, chinese would still get pummeled hard, but final outcome might be positive for the PLA. At least until second wave of 3 more CSGs and appropriately bigger number of USAF forces come to the area.

 

[Gollevainen]

I hate comparrison threads, all kind of them...But I let this one pass just to fix few mistakes you've made...


Mostly it seems that you have quite unclear picture of the current chinese inventory, the systems under developmet and the general directions of where the chinese armed forces are heading. Like for examples, what russian warships and subs? China has bought only two project 956EM class destroyersfrom russia after 2000 and those deals were made well back in the 90's. Only exeption are the Kilo class SSKs which however are simply bought as a stopcap meassure before the new chinese domestic build subs enters more fasterpace production. You completely ignored almoust all new chinese surface combatants being fielded to PLAN in last couple years (and more are comming!)

Also in the Airforce section, you got the idea wrong. Where is J-10? Where is J-10A? and not to mention about the ongoing projects under the J-xx label...

And in general you should have know and noticed the extremely fast rate (faster than in any other nation in the whole world) of modernisations and new equipments being introduced to all branches of the PLA. There is no such field where chinese weren't developming new domestic systmes.

So perhaps you should visit the main site sinodefence.com It is the best and allcovering site of chinese military in the internet and gives good cover up of the current state of chinese military. Becouse without knowing where you stand now, you cannot predict where you are going. No offence but it seems that your "knowlidge" of china is based on some facts from the late 80's and early 90's...


But to awnser to your question, in 2020 China is far closer to USA than you might or want to belive...:china:

 

[googeler]

USAalltheway, you said in another post that you were involved in analyzing PRC military capabilities for the US DoD.
Honestly, I highly doubt it, because you make huge mistakes (for a former DoD "analyzer") about both forces:

1. most of the Chinese surface fleet is home-made (except 4 Sovremenys and perhaps the Varyag)
2. you completely fail to mention the J-10
3. Type98 tank was only the prototype for the Type99, it was (and will) never be built in large numbers
4. F-117 will be out of service by 2020

 

[USAalltheway]

In the near future (by 2020) I do see most of China's fleet being Russian made, inspired, or copied. Once China and Russia concoct sign the highly-anticipated mutual protection pact (mainly as a rebuttal to the US and Japan) in the near future and agree to share technologies, the Chinese and Russian militaries will be quite similar.

I neglected to mention J-10 because I thought that was quite obvious, that J-10 would be in service as one of China's main 4th generation fighters.

I still do believe F-117 will be in service by 2020 because the USAF still needs a dedicated low-observable bomb deliver, not just a stealth air superiority fighter.

Yes I used to work at USDoD but if you don't want to believe that its totally fine with me.

 

[bd popeye]

Pres Bush has suggested retiring the F-117;

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As China improves it's forces one thing must not be ignored. The near total lack of foward bases and logistical ablity...

the PLA forces need more helos of all types.Transport, attack, ASW you name it they need it. More underway replenishment ships. Air refuelers. More real training for their airmen and sailors......

Better ASW capablity for ships and aircraft. More AWACS....More...more ...more and better training....If they do these things in the their percieved goal to be a super-power then they will be truly a force to be reckoned with. Will they be ready in 2020? I do not know. they will be much improved.

 

[Violet Oboe]

China will shape her security environment according to a well defined set of own interests. Statements of western politicians ( DoD Secretary Rumsfeld e.g.) that China is not threatened by anyone are completely irrelevant in this regard. Of course no power is currently able to invade and occupy China but this is a very rudimentary form of security which absolutely taken fits to security norms of small or regional powers. Pretending that China could be satisfied with such a low level of security is simply absurd since China sees her security perimeter corresponding to her role as a major power with global interests.

Additionally a humble question USAalltheway:
Would you advice a good friend of yours who asks you about how he can handle his financial problems that the best is way of improving his credit risk is calling the boss of his local bank names like rogue or adversary at their next meeting?

Currently USA is indebted to China with 310 billion $ plus dozens of billions belonging to private creditors in Shanghai and Hongkong. No doubt that every second US debt to China grows because China´s current account surplus with US is ballooning bigger and bigger every year (202 billion in 05, 245 billion in 06 may be 300 billion in 07).

At least some people in the State Department (unfourtunately Robert Zoellick has recently retired ) and of course the steady growing US-chinese business community know how you treat a great customer and solvent creditor: with a broad smile and decent respect !

 

[kooe]

all-modernized Russian built navy??? r u kidding me? can u imagine how much money we gona spend and how weak and obsolete we gona get?(worse than india)
i personally dont wana c any of those russian craps exist in PLAN by the end of 2020.....

 

[kooe]

In the near future (by 2020) I do see most of China's fleet being Russian made, inspired, or copied. Once China and Russia concoct sign the highly-anticipated mutual protection pact (mainly as a rebuttal to the US and Japan) in the near future and agree to share technologies, the Chinese and Russian militaries will be quite similar.

I neglected to mention J-10 because I thought that was quite obvious, that J-10 would be in service as one of China's main 4th generation fighters.

I still do believe F-117 will be in service by 2020 because the USAF still needs a dedicated low-observable bomb deliver, not just a stealth air superiority fighter.

Yes I used to work at USDoD but if you don't want to believe that its totally fine with me.

F-117 still in service?? u kidding me? i bet u that crap will be out by the end of 2015 and replace by a much capable bomber = B-2......

 

[tphuang]

F-117 still in service?? u kidding me? i bet u that crap will be out by the end of 2015 and replace by a much capable bomber = B-2......

Actually, they've even talked about B-3 entering service! That's even though nothing will match B-2's performance in the next 20 years and likely much longer than that.

PLA has a lot of things that it needs to work on, but I think by 2015, we will see most its projects bearing fruit.