Future PLA strategic procurement priorities


AndrewS

Colonel
Registered Member
Indeed, but the raison d'etre for a JH-XX would be to conduct strikes at distances within the second island chain as a regional bomber, not only within the first island chain, which as you describe, can be conducted by a number of other assets.

If you want to hit a target (especially a moving maritime one) 2000-2500km away, relatively reliably, with somewhat time sensitivity, a stealthy, supersonic regional bomber is your best bet.

Realistically, there are no land targets which are 2000-2500km away.

Guam is too far away

And the possible 2000-2500km targets in Japan and the Philippines would require overflying a large portion of their land mass, which is not realistic for an aircraft without broadband stealth and in the face of fighter opposition

---
But if we want to talk about maritime targets, you could take a 1900km JASSM-XR ($1.5M) and add $3M to turn it into an LRASM.

Launched from mainland China, that would take you to at least 1500km offshore, again accompanied by fighter cover.
And it would be far more time-sensitive than trying to organise a large coordinated airstrike with JH-XX aircraft.
 

Bltizo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Realistically, there are no land targets which are 2000-2500km away.

Guam is too far away

And the possible 2000-2500km targets in Japan and the Philippines would require overflying a large portion of their land mass, which is not realistic for an aircraft without broadband stealth and in the face of fighter opposition

---
But if we want to talk about maritime targets, you could take a 1900km JASSM-XR ($1.5M) and add $3M to turn it into an LRASM.

Launched from mainland China, that would take you to at least 1500km offshore, again accompanied by fighter cover.
And it would be far more time-sensitive than trying to organise a large coordinated airstrike with JH-XX aircraft.

There certainly are land based targets that could be serviced in the 2500km combat radius region. Perhaps not in the east, but certainly in the south.

I have no issues with using long range land based cruise missiles for anti ship missions.

But their speed is low and time it will take for them to reach the target is not short. A supersonic bomber that is able to get closer and deploy a weapon closer to the enemy -- perhaps even a supersonic weapon -- would be far superior.


Which gets to my point -- there are absolutely missions which a JH-XX could be well suited for and able to do so arguably better than land based cruise missiles, but for the PLAs priority of funding, H-20 likely is far more important than JH-XX and at the system of systems level the JH-XX is likely not an immediately high priority
 

AndrewS

Colonel
Registered Member
There certainly are land based targets that could be serviced in the 2500km combat radius region. Perhaps not in the east, but certainly in the south.

Sorry, could you provide examples? I don't see any realistic targets, plus anything that happens in the South is of secondary importance.


I have no issues with using long range land based cruise missiles for anti ship missions.

But their speed is low and time it will take for them to reach the target is not short. A supersonic bomber that is able to get closer and deploy a weapon closer to the enemy -- perhaps even a supersonic weapon -- would be far superior.

It will take hours to get a supersonic bomber force organised and into the air.
And this is what the USAF says of its aircraft
 

AndrewS

Colonel
Registered Member
No clue. We've been hearing indecisive noise for a few years now.

Overall, it makes sense that between H-20 and JH-XX the former would be of much greater priority, and if they decided they only had enough money to fund one of the two, they'd go for H-20 instead.

Xi'An is going to be very busy with H-20 and Y-20 airframes.

The way I see it, it's better build more Y-20U tankers and H-20s than add yet another project to Xi'An such as the JH-XX.
And if you're talking about targets located 2000-2500km away, it's simply better to extend fighter cover as far as possible.

It's 3000km towards Guam or 800km to the Japanese Home Islands.

The Chinese Air Force could easily use an extra 100 Y-20U tankers tomorrow, which would extend the fighter operations deep into the Western Pacific.
You would see occasional fighter sweeps up to 2000km away, just 1000km away from Guam
And if you can even wrest air control temporarily, you can use any aircraft to deliver missiles.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Junior Member
Registered Member
Xi'An is going to be very busy with H-20 and Y-20 airframes.

The way I see it, it's better build more Y-20U tankers and H-20s than add yet another project to Xi'An such as the JH-XX.
And if you're talking about targets located 2000-2500km away, it's simply better to extend fighter cover as far as possible.

It's 3000km towards Guam or 800km to the Japanese Home Islands.

The Chinese Air Force could easily use an extra 100 Y-20U tankers tomorrow, which would extend the fighter operations deep into the Western Pacific.
You would see occasional fighter sweeps up to 2000km away, just 1000km away from Guam
And if you can even wrest air control temporarily, you can use any aircraft to deliver missiles.
I would say, if there's the budget give JH-XX to Shenyang instead of Xi'an.

Yes it would be atypical for Shenyang to work on a striker, but they have already demonstrated conventional layout LO design and machining capability on the J-31 and large plane capability on the J-16. As J-16 winds down probably by mid 2020s they will have free production capability for a large 20-30 m plane.

Chengdu is also a possibility although they will be 100% focused on J-20 for a while.
 

Bltizo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Xi'An is going to be very busy with H-20 and Y-20 airframes.

The way I see it, it's better build more Y-20U tankers and H-20s than add yet another project to Xi'An such as the JH-XX.
And if you're talking about targets located 2000-2500km away, it's simply better to extend fighter cover as far as possible.

It's 3000km towards Guam or 800km to the Japanese Home Islands.

The Chinese Air Force could easily use an extra 100 Y-20U tankers tomorrow, which would extend the fighter operations deep into the Western Pacific.
You would see occasional fighter sweeps up to 2000km away, just 1000km away from Guam
And if you can even wrest air control temporarily, you can use any aircraft to deliver missiles.

My point is that it is a matter of opportunity cost rather than lack a clear and legitimate mission.
 

Bltizo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Sorry, could you provide examples? I don't see any realistic targets, plus anything that happens in the South is of secondary importance.
Basically the entire south East Asian archipelago.

Part of US doctrine that is being developed is to literally occupy small islands and use them as forward air bases and missile bases.


It will take hours to get a supersonic bomber force organised and into the air.
And this is what the USAF says of its aircraft

Depends on how big the force is, if you're organising a 20+ aircraft package, sure.
If you're organising a 4 aircraft ready package, somewhat less so.


I want to just go back to the big picture because I think we are getting stuck in the weeds, the question is simple: do we believe that there is a clear and legitimate and desirable mission that a JH-XX as we envision it, can fulfill?

If the above answer is yes, then the question becomes one of opportunity cost and industry resources and PLA funding, rather than "what mission can this aircraft fulfill".
 
Last edited:

AndrewS

Colonel
Registered Member
Basically the entire south East Asian archipelago.

Part of US doctrine that is being developed is to literally occupy small islands and use them as forward air bases and

So Indonesia and Malaysia are going to willingly allow the USA to turn their territory into a warzone, instead of staying neutral?

That is the US military having wet dreams to be frank.

And remember this is a secondary theatre that doesn't particularly matter to China.

Depends on how big the force is, if you're organising a 20+ aircraft package, sure.
If you're organising a 4 aircraft ready package, somewhat less so.

4 JH-XX isn't going to cut it.

I want to just go back to the big picture because I think we are getting stuck in the weeds, the question is simple: do we believe that there is a clear and legitimate and desirable mission that a JH-XX as we envision it, can fulfill?

If the above answer is yes, then the question becomes one of opportunity cost and industry resources and PLA funding, rather than "what mission can this aircraft fulfill".

I don't think there is a mission for the envisioned JH-XX
 

Atomicfrog

Junior Member
Registered Member
Indeed, but the raison d'etre for a JH-XX would be to conduct strikes at distances within the second island chain as a regional bomber, not only within the first island chain, which as you describe, can be conducted by a number of other assets.

If you want to hit a target (especially a moving maritime one) 2000-2500km away, relatively reliably, with somewhat time sensitivity, a stealthy, supersonic regional bomber is your best bet.
So it would be quite big to get to this range with a sensible internal payload... It will be interesting when we will be able to look at the size of H-20 to see what kind of niche is left for JH-XX. It look like the H-20 will arrive before we see a glimpse of it.
 

Bltizo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
So Indonesia and Malaysia are going to willingly allow the USA to turn their territory into a warzone, instead of staying neutral?

That is the US military having wet dreams to be frank.

And remember this is a secondary theatre that doesn't particularly matter to China.
The US military has been openly discussing the need to occupy those features without the requisite nations consent.

The SCS region most definitely will become a primary theater equal to the eastern direction given its pivotal role in acting as a chokepoint for Chinese SLOC.


4 JH-XX isn't going to cut it.

Against what kind of target, operating alongside what kind of joint support?


I don't think there is a mission for the envisioned JH-XX

Then I fundamentally disagree with you.

I think there is a very legitimate mission that the JH-XX can fulfill and offer significant enhancements in capability -- however if they choose not to pursue it, it is likely because of other more pressing priorities and limitations of industry resources and finite funding.
 

Top