lcloo
Captain
I would like to think that the total number of J20s to be produced over its production period of, say 20 years, would depend on the need of PLAAF to counter potential threats rather than base on production capacity. Production capacity should be dependent on the total number of aircraft needed, and shall be expanded if the manufacturer think that current capacity cannot meet the demand.
Example, assumed PLAAF planners think that 800 J20s are needed in next 20 years period from 2017 ( year of introduction), i.e. 2017 to 2037, then the simple average production rate would be 40 units per year. However, during the first few years and the last few years of production period, the annual rates would be anywhere from 4 aircraft per year to 40 per year. Therefore in between the initial and ending production periods, the normal annual rate would be higher than 40, so it could be from 40 to 60 per year.
We cannot confirm if the rumoured 4 production lines expansion for J20 is true, but we can be assured there could be multiple production lines if the demand called for more aircraft numbers beyond capacity of one or two production lines. This of course would require building more production floor area.
The same supply and demand situation applies for engine annual out put as well.
As to how many J20s are needed in total, we can only speculate, based on the possible total number of F-22 and F-35 in foreign bases around China from present to foreseeable future, or during a time of war.
Example, assumed PLAAF planners think that 800 J20s are needed in next 20 years period from 2017 ( year of introduction), i.e. 2017 to 2037, then the simple average production rate would be 40 units per year. However, during the first few years and the last few years of production period, the annual rates would be anywhere from 4 aircraft per year to 40 per year. Therefore in between the initial and ending production periods, the normal annual rate would be higher than 40, so it could be from 40 to 60 per year.
We cannot confirm if the rumoured 4 production lines expansion for J20 is true, but we can be assured there could be multiple production lines if the demand called for more aircraft numbers beyond capacity of one or two production lines. This of course would require building more production floor area.
The same supply and demand situation applies for engine annual out put as well.
As to how many J20s are needed in total, we can only speculate, based on the possible total number of F-22 and F-35 in foreign bases around China from present to foreseeable future, or during a time of war.
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