Future PLA combat aircraft composition

Bltizo said:

You are mistaken, my most recent estimates is for 300-350 carrierborne J-XY for its entire production run.

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ok, that's great, what about the 10 new carrier by 2035?

Bltizo said:

What are you talking about?

My estimate for total carrierborne and land based 5th generation fighters would be:
350 carrierborne 5th generation fighters (J-XY)
1200-1400 land based 5th generation fighters (J-20 + LB J/XY, or J-20 alone)


The continued production of 4.5 generation fighters and upgrading of 4.5 generation fighters is entirely factored into my projections, yes. I do not expect SAC or CAC to continue producing mainline 4.5 generation fighters after 2027, except for perhaps dedicated EW variants like J-16D or J-15D.

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how does this 300-350 in compare with the 6th gen fighter number you estimate that CAC will produced? SAC don't need to invest anything to produce these?

so for SAC to produce ~57 LB J-XY and addition J-XY require no major expension of productivity?
but for CAC to produce ~57 J-20 and addition 6th gen fighter require major expension and will become an issue....

stannislas said:

ok, that's great, what about the 10 new carrier by 2035?

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I wrote 10-12 carriers overall by around 2040.

I.e.: that is an additional 7-9 carriers on top of the current 3 (Liaoning, Shandong, 003), by around 2040, depending on how one measures it.

stannislas said:

how does this 300-350 in compare with the 6th gen fighter number you estimate that CAC will produced? SAC don't need to invest anything to produce these?

so for SAC to produce ~57 LB J-XY and addition J-XY require no major expension of productivity?
but for CAC to produce ~57 J-20 and addition 6th gen fighter require major expension and will become an issue....

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No, I wrote SAC would produce about 57 J-XY combined (i.e.: a combination of LB J-XY, and J-XY) annually between 2030 and 2045.

And of course, for both SAC and CAC, they will or have both invested to expand their own production facilities, as well as to adapt their 4th generation fighter production facilities for 5th generation production.


So to answer your question, yes, I think it is plausible for SAC to produce 57 J-XY combined (both LB J-XY and J-XY) annually, up to 2045.
And yes, I think for CAC to produce 57 J-20s per year up to 2045, while also producing 6th gen fighters from 2032 onwards, is unlikely and beyond their capability, unless something crazy happens like other institutes are placed under the direct jurisdiction of CAC.

Bltizo said:

I am writing as another posting member of the forum. If you want to continue posting the way in which you have been to this discussion, you are free to do so. I get it -- you don't think the PLAAF will procure the LB J-XY, and you've already expressed multiple times that you don't think it's going to happen, without a clear explanation.
Fine.

However, I am going to continue trying to have a discussion about how it could be reasonable for the PLAAF to procure the LB J-XY in context of future PLA fighter orbat, for others who may be interested. It is your choice if you want to continue to contribute to it in the manner that you have.

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I don't know what to say, but again, NO, like I explained repeatly, I don't have any problem with whether 'PLAAF will procure the LB J-XY', in fact I kind like your post on #533, espcially the graph, just need more work to make it more rigorously.

What I keep repeating myself is that, there are still so many unknown at this stage, and your estimation in my opinion is just one of the most optimistic senario, that is far from conclusive of all the cases.

I understand one or two option for PLA want to achieve 1200-1400 5~5.5 gen fighter by 2040 now, and understand why you think that way, but that has nothing to do with what reality will happened, because from starter, I'm not sure about your assumption of 1200-1400 and 2040.

Bltizo said:

So to answer your question, yes, I think it is plausible for SAC to produce 57 J-XY combined (both LB J-XY and J-XY) annually, up to 2045.
And yes, I think for CAC to produce 57 J-20s per year up to 2045, while also producing 6th gen fighters from 2032 onwards, is unlikely and beyond their capability, unless something crazy happens like other institutes are placed under the direct jurisdiction of CAC

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ok, I think CAC in 2020 before Covid was producing somewhere close to 30 J-10 and slightly about 10 J-20 annuely, that is 40 in total, and only required additonal 20 reach your estimation.

the additional 10+ J-20 productivity is the result of CAC expension in 2017~2018, so given how fast things in China goes, and how rapidly US expend its productivity of F-35, I see not issue on CAC double its production in the next ten or 20 years. the same goes to SAC as well.

stannislas said:

I don't know what to say, but again, NO, like I explained repeatly, I don't have any problem with whether 'PLAAF will procure the LB J-XY', in fact I kind like your post on #533, espcially the graph, just need more work to make it more rigorously.

What I keep repeating myself is that, there are still so many unknown at this stage, and your estimation in my opinion is just one of the most optimistic senario, that is far from conclusive of all the cases.

I understand one or two option for PLA want to achieve 1200-1400 5~5.5 gen fighter by 2040 now, and understand why you think that way, but that has nothing to do with what reality will happened, because from starter, I'm not sure about your assumption of 1200-1400 and 2040.

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If you agree that it is a reasonable projection, then I have no disagreement with you.

The entire purpose for creating that projection and the reason for my last few pages of posts, is to try and have a basis for us to speculate about why the LB J-XY could make sense for the PLAAF, and to have a discussion about it and the various pull and push factors.


However the last few pages of your replies have conveyed and overwhelming sense of skepticism and derision to the idea of the PLAAF procuring the LB J-XY and even going so far as to suggest that the LB J-XY aircraft itself is somehow not on the horizon, and that the likelihood of the PLAAF buying it is so fanciful and so low that it is not worth discussing or seriously analyzing.

If that is not your intention, then I regret the miscommunication, but I can only read the words and the phrasing in which it the posts are written.

Bltizo said:

The entire purpose for creating that projection and the reason for my last few pages of posts, is to try and have a basis for us to speculate about why the LB J-XY could make sense for the PLAAF, and to have a discussion about it and the various pull and push factors.

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I can see how you get your estimation, that's fine.

But again, like I keep repeated myself and explain to other members as well, in my opinion that is too optimistic, quite a wishful thinking. Just like your previous estimation on the number of carrier and J-XY. I think we should wait for more evidence to reach your estimation.

stannislas said:

thank you, that's exactly what I'm saying, small batch for LB J-XY make no sense, so stop saying it was concret.

second, yes, there will be a large requirement for 5th generation fighters, but hi, you have already give a 'option B', have you?

and I am really also very curious on the number 2040, why PLA want set that year as the target? what's the magic in it, why not 2030? 2035?or even 2049?


thank you again, that's excatly what I said, there is a good chance PLAAF is not going to buy a big sum...


lol, I must be mistaken, so your post on this forum is not for everyone, I must need to have a 'certificate' or something in order to comment on it? is that right? your mighty super moderator, you humble me.

also, it confused me, was entire argurment and exchanges we have are not explanable enough? or I must follow your mind set in order to award a badge called 'reasonable'?

and for my 'dislike or skepticism of SAC', do you want me to appology to you or all the other two moderator @Deino @siegecrossbow as well?
I'm sorry SAC, I shouldn't dislike or skeptic on you by question @Bltizo 's theory over the existence of so called 'LB J-XY', despite I haven't see it yet
I'm sorry SAC, I shouldn't dislike or skeptic on you by question @Bltizo 's theory over PLAAF that will buy a huge number of so called 'LB J-XY', despite I haven't see it yet
I'm sorry SAC, I shouldn't dislike or skeptic on you by question @Bltizo 's theory over the impact of so called 'LB J-XY' to PLA, despite I haven't see it yet

Happy? or if there is anything else I need to do correct my mistake on 'dislike or skeptic of SAC', sir.

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And @Bltizo ... Don't you think all arguments are changed?

As it seems, it is an interesting discussion with valid points from both side but my feeling tells me, you two won't find an agreement and that#s also no problem. But I think all is said and done and now let's agree to disagree!?

Bltizo said:

That in turn means the maiden flight of the aircraft would have had to begun at least some 5 years before initial production, in turn meaning active development of the aircraft would have been ongoing for some 3-4 years prior to the maiden flight...

Peel back the numbers, and from 2035 you have to take 2-3 years + 5 years + 3-4 years, which takes us to 2023-2025.

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Interesting thing to think about. CAC went from getting picked to putting J-20 into service in 10 years. That was exceptionally quick by any measure. So 2023 to 2025 probably makes most sense for PLAAF picking its 6th gen design. PLAAF need to make a decision by 2023 if they want to get 6th gen into service in some numbers before a possible Taiwan scenario in the second half of 2030s.

Bltizo said:

In the 2023-25 period, for SAC, they at that point in time they would already be actively working on the development/testing and starting initial production of the standard carrier based J-XY. As a carrier based 5th generation aircraft (even as a derivative of the FC-31 V1 and V2 airframes), it will be quite reasonably tied up by the challenge of ensuring it works. (This is ignoring the land based J-XY variant btw)

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Right, I think given the amount of work ahead for SAC and the presence of what appears to be numerous 6th planform at CAC factory, it would be CAC's project to lose at this point.

Bltizo said:

So in summary, based on when the 6th gen fighter is projected to enter service, and based on what the timelines for developing a new fighter are, and based on the workloads for developing, testing and establishing production for a new fighter aircraft between CAC and SAC... I find it very unlikely that SAC will have the aerospace resources to develop the primary 6th generation manned fighter in the timescale that would be needed.

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It's likely that SAC would be tasked develop the 6th gen naval fighter for entry in early 2040s.

Bltizo said:

Keep in mind the first J-20 tech demo s/n 2001 first flew in early 2011, and the first initial low rate production of J-20 began in late 2015 -- however the first J-20 prototype s/n 2011 first flew in early 2014, barely two years from first initial low rate production of J-20.

In the case of J-XY, the standard carrier J-XY is much closer to J-20 s/n 2011 than 2001, and I expect the land based J-XY to be similar as well.
So yes, I think 2-3 years between the maiden flight of the first land based J-XY, and initial low rate production, is very much within reason and not an exceptional date at all.

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What CAC did with J-20 was quite exceptional. I don't know if it's fair to expect SAC to proceed at the same speed when they have to develop 2 variants at the same time + completing development of J-15B.

Bltizo said:

So, starting from a fresh post, I want to elaborate about my reasoning for the PLA's future land based 5th generation fighter procurement.

I have a few foundational assumptions:
A) The PLA (which is to be understood as the PLAAF and/or PLANAF's land based fighter units) should aim to have some 1200-1400, land based, 5th (and/or "5.5th") generation fighters in service by around 2040. This does not include PLANAF carrier compatible 5th generation fighter aircraft, which will be deployed aboard carriers but of course have land bases to operate and train from as well when they are not embarked.

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I'm thinking 100 J-10Cs, 200 J-16s, 200 6th gen aircraft + 1500 5th gen aircraft (1000 J-20s + 500 LB J-35s) - 2000 manned fighter by then. There is a good chance PLAAF will retires J-10s before USAF retires F-16s and flankers before USAF retires F-15s.

Bltizo said:

B) The PLA will seek to start initial low rate production of the 6th generation manned fighter (a component of the overall future aerial combat system), sometime in the early 2030s, with the aim to achieve a credible operational capability by 2035, a number that has been spoken of multiple times in official and semi-official capacity
C) The only two Chinese institutes/factories that can produce manned fighter aircraft of 5th generation or above, are assumed to be CAC and SAC.


Based on those assumptions, A, B and C, I present this simple graph:

View attachment 86599

The left scenario depicts how I believe the PLA could meet the "1200-1400 land based 5th generation fighters by ~2040" target, between J-20 and the LB J-XY -- I project both J-20 and LB J-XY throughout their production runs (2015 to 2036 for J-20, and 2025 to 2043 for LB J-XY), will each have a lifetime run of between 600-700 aircraft each, for a total of 1200-1400 aircraft by about 2043 at the latest.

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CAC has produced J-10s for 4 years after J-20 induction and GAIC is likely to produce it for a couple of more years. I think 2040 is more likely to be when they stop producing J-20s.

Bltizo said:

- For J-20, as of early 2022 we believe slightly over 100 production J-20s have been produced, meaning in the 14 years between 2022 and 2036, they will have to produce some 500-600 J-20s. That's an average annual production rate of 36-42 J-20 airframes between 2022-2036 -- which I think is very much achieveable for CAC, when considering that some years it will be higher than 36-42 airframes, and near the end of the production run it will be a bit lower.

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When considering that PLAAF had been planning to be ready by around 2027, that is quite a bit below my expectations. I think they probably need to produce another 300 over the next 5 to 6 years.

Bltizo said:

- For LB J-XY, to produce 600-700 aircraft in the 18 years between 2025 and 2043, they would have to annually produce an average of 33-39 airframes a year. However, keep in mind this doesn't include the initial ramp up period which will likely be some 4-5 years long for the LB J-XY perhaps to produce the first 100 initial aircraft, meaning the subsequent 13-14 years of production between 2030 and 2043 will have to produce some 38-46 aircraft annually on average. But again, for SAC I think this is very much within reason. Keep in mind, for SAC, they will be producing the standard carrierborne J-XY as well at the same time as the LB J-XY, however I believe the PLANAF will not require more than 350 J-XY for their carriers by 2045. Putting it another way, for the "combined J-XY production" (J-XY and LB J-XY), they will be required to produce some 1000 odd airframes in 20 years between 2025 and 2045, of which 18 of those years would have some 600-700 LB J-XY produced. That means an average production rate of some 50 aircraft between 2025 and 2045, or alternatively, (assuming 50 J-XY and 100 LB J-XY are produced by 2030),some 57 aircraft per year between 2030 and 2045. IMO an average annual production rate of 57 combined J-XY airframes between 2030-2045 is quite plausible -- or alternatively, if only considering LB J-XY, it will be an average annual production rate of 38-46 LB J-XY airframes between 2030-2043.

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I think PLAAF's LB J-35 numbers is very much dependent on how quickly they can get it into production. If it can actually enter service by 2026 (assuming 2022 first flight and 4 years from that point to service entrance), they'd be able to start mass produce before CAC really hits its high production pace. If it's not ready until 2028 or 2029, then CAC may have already ramped up J-20 production to 70 a year.

Bltizo said:

- However this also raises problems of engine availability after 2025. I expect the PLA will seek to ramp up WS-15 production, both for new J-20 airframe builds, but also to develop a variant for powering the initial variants of the 6th generation fighter. Meaning that production of WS-15s will be a bottleneck for a while as they ramp it up, and if they are unable to do so, they will have to likely continue powering a number of J-20s with WS-10 variants. It's not the end of the world, but it is something to additionally consider.

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engine could be something that slows down J-35 mass production, since WS-13 hasn't been tested as widely as WS-10s. I'm not sure how reliable it is right now.

tphuang said:

since WS-13 hasn't been tested as widely as WS-10s. I

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I thought WS-19 will be used for J-35.

Deino said:

And @Bltizo ... Don't you think all arguments are changed?

As it seems, it is an interesting discussion with valid points from both side but my feeling tells me, you two won't find an agreement and that#s also no problem. But I think all is said and done and now let's agree to disagree!?

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My conversation was finished by post 545, clearly we were not getting anywhere.