Future PLA combat aircraft composition


ougoah

Major
Registered Member
I don't actually think it's so unlikely for PLAAF and China to acquire some Su-57s. It is a remarkably different aircraft to J-20 and probably has some of its own unique strengths, supermaneuverability being an undeniably obvious one. On that point it can easily simulate F-22 performance with TVC and if unloaded for supercruise.

A large fleet of Su-57 will be unaffordable and come at the cost of more J-20s or whatever. But since the philosophy of the Su-57 is so different to the J-20's and the Russian approach to 5th gen may have its own worthwhile lessons/insights, it could also mean a modern Su-35 small, special task squadron. There is a some flexibility here and it's always good to determine exactly where the Russian designs are performing at. Strengths can be learned and adapted to future designs e.g. TVC in Su-35 to compare against domestic TVC programs like the J-10's TVC mod. Meanwhile if it's more of a dud than expected, then there are insights into Russia's performance in this field and maybe a better way to understand where India's future Su-57 imports will be performing at.

The Americans acquired and operated enemy and allied weapons for all sorts of evaluation and intel programs since the second world war. If Russia offers China the Su-57, China will more likely buy than not. The question is how many units and how effective does China want to make this fleet in terms of how deeply invested in weapons and parts they want to be. Both are friendly and not threatening one another so Russia may even offer a decent enough deal with a smaller order of something similar to Su-35 numbers - 24.
 

jimmyjames30x30

Junior Member
Registered Member
As an addendum, I'm fairly negative about the J-XY. It might end up being a perfectly adequate and capable carrier-based fighter, but think about it another way. It's a F-22/F-35 clone. The success of the J-XY comes out to the failure of the J-20; they're completely different in design philosophy and protocol, and a successful J-XY implies that the J-20 is a make-do aerodynamic formula to cope with limitations as opposed to something innovative. That's to say, the Americans do it better, and the future of Chinese aerospace design should be to continue aping the Americans.
You need to make your points clearer.

I think what you meant is that IF:
1. J-XY is chosen to be procured by the PLAAF over J-20, and
2. J-XY is in the same weight class as J-20 (thus implying that the former has no economical advantage over the latter), and
3. J-XY is aerodynamically similar/identical to F22 and/or F35;
then it would imply that J-20 is a failure.

I think everyone else didn't really understood it this way.
 

gelgoog

Captain
Registered Member
It is possible that the PLAAF would order the J-XY from Shenyang simply because a) it's available b) they need to order something from Shenyang to keep their production facilities operational once Flanker production winds down. Regardless if the J-20 is a "failure" or not. It doesn't make sense to shut down those facilities and lose staff. I also doubt the J-20 is a "failure". There is no indication of that. If it was it wouldn't have gone into mass production. China can't just waste money on defense like the US does.
 

silentlurker

Junior Member
Registered Member
It is possible that the PLAAF would order the J-XY from Shenyang simply because a) it's available b) they need to order something from Shenyang to keep their production facilities operational once Flanker production winds down.
PLAAF orders an entirly new 5th gen fighters just to keep a production line open? It seems like an incredible waste of money.
 

silentlurker

Junior Member
Registered Member
IF we're looking at the perspective that J-XY has no legitimate contributions to PLAAF (which I don't believe).

1. License produce J-20. A J-11 production line probably doesn't have much commonality with J-XY to begin with so switching it to J-20 probably wouldn't be that much extra work.

2. Shift production to Dark Sword/Divine Eagle/ whatever drone coming out of SAC that the PLAAF actually needs. A large size surveillance/fighter drone production line is probably pretty similar to a regular fighter production line.

This stuff would all be happening years down the line once J-15, J-11D, J-16 production stops. (Will J-16 production stop any time soon? China doesn't have another strike fighter...)
 

crash8pilot

Junior Member
Registered Member
(Will J-16 production stop any time soon? China doesn't have another strike fighter...)
Considering how many units still fly J-7/8 variants, I personally don't think J-16 production stops anytime soon. I mean the J-10C would also be a good and cheaper option to replace older fighters, but I could also see the PLAAF going back to pre-2018 doctrine fielding each brigade with a mix of aircraft (some combination of J-16+J-20A, J-10C+J-16) instead of each brigade flying a single type... And alas why I could see J-16 production continuing well into the current decade.
 

11226p

Junior Member
Registered Member
Considering how many units still fly J-7/8 variants, I personally don't think J-16 production stops anytime soon. I mean the J-10C would also be a good and cheaper option to replace older fighters, but I could also see the PLAAF going back to pre-2018 doctrine fielding each brigade with a mix of aircraft (some combination of J-16+J-20A, J-10C+J-16) instead of each brigade flying a single type... And alas why I could see J-16 production continuing well into the current decade.
Also there are still like 200+ JH-7As which at least partially will get replaced by J-16s
 

Top