Future PLA combat aircraft composition


Inst

Senior Member
As an addendum, I'm fairly negative about the J-XY. It might end up being a perfectly adequate and capable carrier-based fighter, but think about it another way. It's a F-22/F-35 clone. The success of the J-XY comes out to the failure of the J-20; they're completely different in design philosophy and protocol, and a successful J-XY implies that the J-20 is a make-do aerodynamic formula to cope with limitations as opposed to something innovative. That's to say, the Americans do it better, and the future of Chinese aerospace design should be to continue aping the Americans.
 

stannislas

Junior Member
Registered Member
As an addendum, I'm fairly negative about the J-XY. It might end up being a perfectly adequate and capable carrier-based fighter, but think about it another way. It's a F-22/F-35 clone. The success of the J-XY comes out to the failure of the J-20; they're completely different in design philosophy and protocol, and a successful J-XY implies that the J-20 is a make-do aerodynamic formula to cope with limitations as opposed to something innovative. That's to say, the Americans do it better, and the future of Chinese aerospace design should be to continue aping the Americans.
so... following your logic, having F-14 must make F-15 a complete failure, and USN must be absolutely brain damaged to pick the YF-17 airframe and turn it into their carrier-based fighter, right? uh...

and also, stop trolling...
 

silentlurker

Junior Member
Registered Member
Hey
As an addendum, I'm fairly negative about the J-XY. It might end up being a perfectly adequate and capable carrier-based fighter, but think about it another way. It's a F-22/F-35 clone. The success of the J-XY comes out to the failure of the J-20; they're completely different in design philosophy and protocol, and a successful J-XY implies that the J-20 is a make-do aerodynamic formula to cope with limitations as opposed to something innovative. That's to say, the Americans do it better, and the future of Chinese aerospace design should be to continue aping the Americans.
Even for you this is one of your dumbest takes yet. How does suitability for carrier operations relate to the overall success of an ASF?
 

Deino

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
As an addendum, I'm fairly negative about the J-XY. It might end up being a perfectly adequate and capable carrier-based fighter, but think about it another way. It's a F-22/F-35 clone. The success of the J-XY comes out to the failure of the J-20; they're completely different in design philosophy and protocol, and a successful J-XY implies that the J-20 is a make-do aerodynamic formula to cope with limitations as opposed to something innovative. That's to say, the Americans do it better, and the future of Chinese aerospace design should be to continue aping the Americans.


Once again ... why do you rate the J-20 a failure? I really don't get it and not since I'm brainwashed by the Chinese state-propaganda but due to an overall image portrayed by several most credible posters. As such, why do you rate the J-20 a failure? :oops:
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
As an addendum, I'm fairly negative about the J-XY. It might end up being a perfectly adequate and capable carrier-based fighter, but think about it another way. It's a F-22/F-35 clone. The success of the J-XY comes out to the failure of the J-20; they're completely different in design philosophy and protocol, and a successful J-XY implies that the J-20 is a make-do aerodynamic formula to cope with limitations as opposed to something innovative. That's to say, the Americans do it better, and the future of Chinese aerospace design should be to continue aping the Americans.
Please answer why you think jXy is a f22 or f35 clone? Is AMCA a clone too?
Also why j20 is a failure.

If you can't answer these questions then you are a troll.
 

Inst

Senior Member
take this as a warning, I have clearly enough of this constant highly speculative "conclusions" like clearly saying "...the failure of J20" and they you are twisting words in endless debates
Please answer why you think jXy is a f22 or f35 clone? Is AMCA a clone too?
Also why j20 is a failure.

If you can't answer these questions then you are a troll.

You're stuffing shit into my mouth. I'm not saying that the J-20 is a failure, I'm saying that if the PLAAF makes a significant buy of the J-XY type (as opposed to the PLANAF buying it), it implies that the J-20 is a failure. In other words, the PLAAF could very well have done a F-22 / F-35 clone instead of the J-20 (and tbh, a medium-weight fighter using two WS13-class engines would have worked better than a heavyweight fighter).

As for the J-XY and AMCA being F-22/F-35 clones, consider the planform alignment and design decisions made. Sure, the subsystems are substantially different, but they're basically taking up American solutions and American concepts of what a 5th gen should look like.

===

In either case, if we're going to discuss Su-57 procurement, here's the funny fact. The Chinese internet seems to keep on trumpeting a 700 million RMB figure, which comes out to about 100-110 million USD right now.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The initial procurement deal of the Su-57 puts it at 180-190 billion rubles for 76 units. That comes out to 2.36-2.5 billion rubles a piece.

At present exchange rates, that comes out to 31-33 million USD per unit. In other words, there's roughly a 3:1 cost advantage for the Su-57 at stated prices.

When you look at the J-XY, the dimensions for the FC-31 (and the J-XY is supposedly enlarged from the FC-31) are roughly (and I notice when I attacked Blitzo on this he dropped back very quickly) 17.6 x 11.5 meters. That's roughly 25% smaller than the J-20 in area. If the J-20's current price is 100 million, it's implying a 75 million flyaway cost. Even if we say, double the Su-57's costs to account for subsidies and the export profit margin, the Su-57 still has a significant cost advantage and is likely a more capable platform than the FC-31 in everything but stealth.

Then, we have to consider RMB appreciation. I'm expecting the RMB to move toward the 5:1 point respective to the USD, given China's economic development and the strategic benefits of being a major consumer (i.e, Japan and so on are bound to China by export dependency as opposed to the United States). That'd be another 30% appreciation in the RMB, although stuff closer to a 10-15% might be more realistic given that the dominant trend is the weakening of the dollar and the Russian ruble will appreciate as well.

===

In short, the PLAAF is likely to buy the Su-57 provided the Russians can provide a sufficient cost point for the PLAAF to bite. If they can produce a heavyweight stealth fighter for dirt cheap, it'll have limitations compared to the J-XY, but the sheer cost savings makes a PLAAF export purchase of the Su-57 viable.

However, we do need to wait for additional information on the Su-57's costs. The Algerians, for instance, have expressed interest in buying the Su-57, but the contract level (135 million per unit) seems unusual given the Su-57's cost of production and the Su-35's export price (100 million a unit to China, including spares, of course, for a low-volume purchase) The J-20, on the other hand, is barred from export, so it's unlikely we'll get more precise information on the J-20's cost structure.
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
You're stuffing shit into my mouth. I'm not saying that the J-20 is a failure, I'm saying that if the PLAAF makes a significant buy of the J-XY type (as opposed to the PLANAF buying it), it implies that the J-20 is a failure. In other words, the PLAAF could very well have done a F-22 / F-35 clone instead of the J-20 (and tbh, a medium-weight fighter using two WS13-class engines would have worked better than a heavyweight fighter).

As for the J-XY and AMCA being F-22/F-35 clones, consider the planform alignment and design decisions made. Sure, the subsystems are substantially different, but they're basically taking up American solutions and American concepts of what a 5th gen should look like.

===

In either case, if we're going to discuss Su-57 procurement, here's the funny fact. The Chinese internet seems to keep on trumpeting a 700 million RMB figure, which comes out to about 100-110 million USD right now.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The initial procurement deal of the Su-57 puts it at 180-190 billion rubles for 76 units. That comes out to 2.36-2.5 billion rubles a piece.

At present exchange rates, that comes out to 31-33 million USD per unit. In other words, there's roughly a 3:1 cost advantage for the Su-57 at stated prices.

When you look at the J-XY, the dimensions for the FC-31 (and the J-XY is supposedly enlarged from the FC-31) are roughly (and I notice when I attacked Blitzo on this he dropped back very quickly) 17.6 x 11.5 meters. That's roughly 25% smaller than the J-20 in area. If the J-20's current price is 100 million, it's implying a 75 million flyaway cost. Even if we say, double the Su-57's costs to account for subsidies and the export profit margin, the Su-57 still has a significant cost advantage and is likely a more capable platform than the FC-31 in everything but stealth.

Then, we have to consider RMB appreciation. I'm expecting the RMB to move toward the 5:1 point respective to the USD, given China's economic development and the strategic benefits of being a major consumer (i.e, Japan and so on are bound to China by export dependency as opposed to the United States). That'd be another 30% appreciation in the RMB, although stuff closer to a 10-15% might be more realistic given that the dominant trend is the weakening of the dollar and the Russian ruble will appreciate as well.

===

In short, the PLAAF is likely to buy the Su-57 provided the Russians can provide a sufficient cost point for the PLAAF to bite. If they can produce a heavyweight stealth fighter for dirt cheap, it'll have limitations compared to the J-XY, but the sheer cost savings makes a PLAAF export purchase of the Su-57 viable.

However, we do need to wait for additional information on the Su-57's costs. The Algerians, for instance, have expressed interest in buying the Su-57, but the contract level (135 million per unit) seems unusual given the Su-57's cost of production and the Su-35's export price (100 million a unit to China, including spares, of course, for a low-volume purchase) The J-20, on the other hand, is barred from export, so it's unlikely we'll get more precise information on the J-20's cost structure.
You wrote "the success of of the J-XY comes out to the failure of J20". I don't know if you are a native English speaker or not, but it means thatJ-20 failed somehow, and that JXY is successful.

This thread is also for future PLA plane composition which is extremely unlikely to have su-57, so just by bringing it up you are derailing the thread.

You also didn't answer my questions, you deflected. What make you think JXY is a f22 clone? And what makes you think j20 is a failure?

If you don't have any idea how the J20 is designed or what parameters it's designed for, then keep you hands off the keyboard!
 

Deino

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
You're stuffing shit into my mouth. I'm not saying that the J-20 is a failure,
....

Take this as a clear and strict warning: it is enough exactly like @Bltizo already explained. It is this constant posting of highly speculative ideas even against anything that is commonly accepted turn into exactly the opposite direction to found your "conclusions" on it and then continue endless discussions.

Even more you clearly said:

... The success of the J-XY comes out to the failure of the J-20; ....

There is NOTHING to debate and as such I rate all your lame excuses and twisting words explanations in endless debates as trolling. This MUST end.
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
Take this as a clear and strict warning: it is enough exactly like @Bltizo already explained. It is this constant posting of highly speculative ideas even against anything that is commonly accepted turn into exactly the opposite direction to found your "conclusions" on it and then continue endless discussions.

Even more you clearly said:



There is NOTHING to debate and as such I rate all your lame excuses and twisting words explanations in endless debates as trolling. This MUST end.
Please forgive him. An Indian fellow, in a fit of jealousy, rants about the quick progress of the Chinese military aircraft development.
 

Top