Fairthought
Junior Member
With all the talk about growing Indian-American relations it has become assumed by many that an alliance is both natural and inevitable. But this would not be an educated assumption.
India is committed to becoming the dominant naval power in the Indian Ocean. The US considers maintaining control of the waterways of the oil rich Persian gulf and the Indian Ocean to be one of their highest strategic goals.
While the Indian navy is still no match for the American Indian naval presence, this will change in time. Sometime before the Indian navy rivals the US presence, the pentagon will identify India as a threat to American interests.
An intense naval arms race in the Indian Ocean is unavoidable in the 2025-2050 timeframe. That is when Indian fighter and submarine technology will be a threat to US fleets and airbases. The US will overstretch itself trying to control the world's biggest oil artery from the perceived 'Indian threat' while also trying to safeguard Taiwan from the 'China Threat'.
If the US, aplomb with a self-view of omnipotence, will not recognize that it is unable to do both then this will be the end of America's reign as a superpower decades ahead of its time. By 2050, American simply can't afford a naval arms race with both India and China. The resulting economic implosion will parallel the demise of the Soviet Union.
If the US, awakened by a dose of realpolitik, decided it must make a choice then the question is this: control the oil or control Taiwan? Depending at what point America comes to this realization, the answer will favor one over the other.
For instance, if America had to choose between oil and Taiwan today the answer is simple: GoodBye Taiwan. This will remain America's preference until at least 2035. After that, the Oil economy will begin to be phased out in favor of ITER fusion reactor techonology or the cleaner alternative: the newly tapped energy resources of the moon. This will decrease the value of Gulf oil, and thereafter, America may consider Taiwan to be more important in the policy of containing China.
However the decision is complicated by two additional factors: 1) American defense analysts may correctly judge that by 2050 Taiwan will be impossible for the US to defend EVEN IF they abandoned the indian ocean arms race and focussed on China. By that year, China will have more money to spend on a military budget. Not to mention that Taiwan is in China's backyard and the US has other military obligations around the world.
Also, 2) Analysis of terran energy studies continue to converge on the prediction that all oil resources will be depleted by 2090. The premium on oil in 2050 for strategic military reserves will initiate a world-wide run on the market, sending prices through the roof. Both of these factors favor a naval arms race with India -at least until 2090. After that, India can have the whole ocean for all the US cares.
The big issue regarding oil will be the the single biggest transformation for all the World's militaries in the twentyfirst century. Either every military vehicle must convert to a new power source, abandoning the combustion engine, or oil will need to processed. Trouble is, Jet fighters don't work too well on batteries, solar cells, or fuel cells. Their engines demand greater performance. In addition to Jet fuel, rocket proppellant and most ammunitions are also derived from oil. Fuel-cell powered ICBM's just don't work. Even though the oil demand will be lessened slightly as some rockets get replaced with laser technology, chemical rockets will remain a vital component in the world militaries. For example, lasers can't deliver a nuclear warhead.
Currently, the only means of producing oil is the through the aeons old process of pressurizing billions of years of photosynthesized produced organic material buried within the earth. To create oil from scratch, enormous farms will have to be devoted to creating the organic materials needed for refining into oil. An expensive prospect for even a small amount of oil. As a result, militaries will need to hoard their oil as a precious commodity. Better to buy up oil now, and save alot of money in the future.
Furthermore, as Indian ballistic missile technology improves, America will expand missile defence plans to include containing the Indian threat. This will inevitably lead to posting advance warning stations in Diego Garcia, Australia's Christmas Islands, as well as leasing bases in Pakistan and Bengladesh. Of all of these, Pakistan is closest to Indian missile bases and thus Pakistan is most valuable for targeting and detroying Indian ICBM's in their vulnerable boost phase. This emphasizes Pakistan's importance to America and is likely to anatagonize India.
The US already has a similar agreement with Japan regarding their inchoate US missile defense system against China. In return for providing these early warning stations, this system, as currently promised, will also protect Japan from Chinese and North Korean missiles. Of course it is still in development, and the emphasis for now is on North Korea not China.
Leasing similar bases in Pakistan will provide Pakistan with billions of dollars in revenue and may very will include extending the missile defence umbrella over Pakistan. This will negate alot of India's strategic influence in the region, most pointedly their nuclear arsenal. This is also likely to antagonize India.
In conclusion, it is India's future development in naval power and ICBM's that will complicate Indo-American relations. And it should be pointed out that India seems committed to both. To pursue either one, in a world which America seeks to 'secure' for itself will inevitably lead to conflict.
India is committed to becoming the dominant naval power in the Indian Ocean. The US considers maintaining control of the waterways of the oil rich Persian gulf and the Indian Ocean to be one of their highest strategic goals.
While the Indian navy is still no match for the American Indian naval presence, this will change in time. Sometime before the Indian navy rivals the US presence, the pentagon will identify India as a threat to American interests.
An intense naval arms race in the Indian Ocean is unavoidable in the 2025-2050 timeframe. That is when Indian fighter and submarine technology will be a threat to US fleets and airbases. The US will overstretch itself trying to control the world's biggest oil artery from the perceived 'Indian threat' while also trying to safeguard Taiwan from the 'China Threat'.
If the US, aplomb with a self-view of omnipotence, will not recognize that it is unable to do both then this will be the end of America's reign as a superpower decades ahead of its time. By 2050, American simply can't afford a naval arms race with both India and China. The resulting economic implosion will parallel the demise of the Soviet Union.
If the US, awakened by a dose of realpolitik, decided it must make a choice then the question is this: control the oil or control Taiwan? Depending at what point America comes to this realization, the answer will favor one over the other.
For instance, if America had to choose between oil and Taiwan today the answer is simple: GoodBye Taiwan. This will remain America's preference until at least 2035. After that, the Oil economy will begin to be phased out in favor of ITER fusion reactor techonology or the cleaner alternative: the newly tapped energy resources of the moon. This will decrease the value of Gulf oil, and thereafter, America may consider Taiwan to be more important in the policy of containing China.
However the decision is complicated by two additional factors: 1) American defense analysts may correctly judge that by 2050 Taiwan will be impossible for the US to defend EVEN IF they abandoned the indian ocean arms race and focussed on China. By that year, China will have more money to spend on a military budget. Not to mention that Taiwan is in China's backyard and the US has other military obligations around the world.
Also, 2) Analysis of terran energy studies continue to converge on the prediction that all oil resources will be depleted by 2090. The premium on oil in 2050 for strategic military reserves will initiate a world-wide run on the market, sending prices through the roof. Both of these factors favor a naval arms race with India -at least until 2090. After that, India can have the whole ocean for all the US cares.
The big issue regarding oil will be the the single biggest transformation for all the World's militaries in the twentyfirst century. Either every military vehicle must convert to a new power source, abandoning the combustion engine, or oil will need to processed. Trouble is, Jet fighters don't work too well on batteries, solar cells, or fuel cells. Their engines demand greater performance. In addition to Jet fuel, rocket proppellant and most ammunitions are also derived from oil. Fuel-cell powered ICBM's just don't work. Even though the oil demand will be lessened slightly as some rockets get replaced with laser technology, chemical rockets will remain a vital component in the world militaries. For example, lasers can't deliver a nuclear warhead.
Currently, the only means of producing oil is the through the aeons old process of pressurizing billions of years of photosynthesized produced organic material buried within the earth. To create oil from scratch, enormous farms will have to be devoted to creating the organic materials needed for refining into oil. An expensive prospect for even a small amount of oil. As a result, militaries will need to hoard their oil as a precious commodity. Better to buy up oil now, and save alot of money in the future.
Furthermore, as Indian ballistic missile technology improves, America will expand missile defence plans to include containing the Indian threat. This will inevitably lead to posting advance warning stations in Diego Garcia, Australia's Christmas Islands, as well as leasing bases in Pakistan and Bengladesh. Of all of these, Pakistan is closest to Indian missile bases and thus Pakistan is most valuable for targeting and detroying Indian ICBM's in their vulnerable boost phase. This emphasizes Pakistan's importance to America and is likely to anatagonize India.
The US already has a similar agreement with Japan regarding their inchoate US missile defense system against China. In return for providing these early warning stations, this system, as currently promised, will also protect Japan from Chinese and North Korean missiles. Of course it is still in development, and the emphasis for now is on North Korea not China.
Leasing similar bases in Pakistan will provide Pakistan with billions of dollars in revenue and may very will include extending the missile defence umbrella over Pakistan. This will negate alot of India's strategic influence in the region, most pointedly their nuclear arsenal. This is also likely to antagonize India.
In conclusion, it is India's future development in naval power and ICBM's that will complicate Indo-American relations. And it should be pointed out that India seems committed to both. To pursue either one, in a world which America seeks to 'secure' for itself will inevitably lead to conflict.
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