Future Indo-American Conflict


Junior Member
With all the talk about growing Indian-American relations it has become assumed by many that an alliance is both natural and inevitable. But this would not be an educated assumption.

India is committed to becoming the dominant naval power in the Indian Ocean. The US considers maintaining control of the waterways of the oil rich Persian gulf and the Indian Ocean to be one of their highest strategic goals.

While the Indian navy is still no match for the American Indian naval presence, this will change in time. Sometime before the Indian navy rivals the US presence, the pentagon will identify India as a threat to American interests.

An intense naval arms race in the Indian Ocean is unavoidable in the 2025-2050 timeframe. That is when Indian fighter and submarine technology will be a threat to US fleets and airbases. The US will overstretch itself trying to control the world's biggest oil artery from the perceived 'Indian threat' while also trying to safeguard Taiwan from the 'China Threat'.

If the US, aplomb with a self-view of omnipotence, will not recognize that it is unable to do both then this will be the end of America's reign as a superpower decades ahead of its time. By 2050, American simply can't afford a naval arms race with both India and China. The resulting economic implosion will parallel the demise of the Soviet Union.

If the US, awakened by a dose of realpolitik, decided it must make a choice then the question is this: control the oil or control Taiwan? Depending at what point America comes to this realization, the answer will favor one over the other.

For instance, if America had to choose between oil and Taiwan today the answer is simple: GoodBye Taiwan. This will remain America's preference until at least 2035. After that, the Oil economy will begin to be phased out in favor of ITER fusion reactor techonology or the cleaner alternative: the newly tapped energy resources of the moon. This will decrease the value of Gulf oil, and thereafter, America may consider Taiwan to be more important in the policy of containing China.

However the decision is complicated by two additional factors: 1) American defense analysts may correctly judge that by 2050 Taiwan will be impossible for the US to defend EVEN IF they abandoned the indian ocean arms race and focussed on China. By that year, China will have more money to spend on a military budget. Not to mention that Taiwan is in China's backyard and the US has other military obligations around the world.

Also, 2) Analysis of terran energy studies continue to converge on the prediction that all oil resources will be depleted by 2090. The premium on oil in 2050 for strategic military reserves will initiate a world-wide run on the market, sending prices through the roof. Both of these factors favor a naval arms race with India -at least until 2090. After that, India can have the whole ocean for all the US cares.

The big issue regarding oil will be the the single biggest transformation for all the World's militaries in the twentyfirst century. Either every military vehicle must convert to a new power source, abandoning the combustion engine, or oil will need to processed. Trouble is, Jet fighters don't work too well on batteries, solar cells, or fuel cells. Their engines demand greater performance. In addition to Jet fuel, rocket proppellant and most ammunitions are also derived from oil. Fuel-cell powered ICBM's just don't work. Even though the oil demand will be lessened slightly as some rockets get replaced with laser technology, chemical rockets will remain a vital component in the world militaries. For example, lasers can't deliver a nuclear warhead.

Currently, the only means of producing oil is the through the aeons old process of pressurizing billions of years of photosynthesized produced organic material buried within the earth. To create oil from scratch, enormous farms will have to be devoted to creating the organic materials needed for refining into oil. An expensive prospect for even a small amount of oil. As a result, militaries will need to hoard their oil as a precious commodity. Better to buy up oil now, and save alot of money in the future.

Furthermore, as Indian ballistic missile technology improves, America will expand missile defence plans to include containing the Indian threat. This will inevitably lead to posting advance warning stations in Diego Garcia, Australia's Christmas Islands, as well as leasing bases in Pakistan and Bengladesh. Of all of these, Pakistan is closest to Indian missile bases and thus Pakistan is most valuable for targeting and detroying Indian ICBM's in their vulnerable boost phase. This emphasizes Pakistan's importance to America and is likely to anatagonize India.

The US already has a similar agreement with Japan regarding their inchoate US missile defense system against China. In return for providing these early warning stations, this system, as currently promised, will also protect Japan from Chinese and North Korean missiles. Of course it is still in development, and the emphasis for now is on North Korea not China.

Leasing similar bases in Pakistan will provide Pakistan with billions of dollars in revenue and may very will include extending the missile defence umbrella over Pakistan. This will negate alot of India's strategic influence in the region, most pointedly their nuclear arsenal. This is also likely to antagonize India.

In conclusion, it is India's future development in naval power and ICBM's that will complicate Indo-American relations. And it should be pointed out that India seems committed to both. To pursue either one, in a world which America seeks to 'secure' for itself will inevitably lead to conflict.
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Banned Idiot
superb fairthought!!!!
i will agree that america cannot keep making foes like this. this alliance between india and america right now is similar to the china-america alliance of the 80s. america wanted an ally to counter bigger fish. when the ally starts to show signs of being able to challenge american interests, the pentagon finds and excuse to make that nation a threat.

while the american navy is very powerful, it simply cannot handle china, india, iran, russia, combined. especially if this is 30 years from now. the best path for america is to lighten up their foreign policy and make friends.


Banned Idiot
Fairthought you are quite right...

The US is grooming india as a counter-balance to the "china threat". Just like america was grooming china againest the soviet threat.

If india becomes a american ally like the soviet union in world war two or a american ally like the present japan? All american allies after world war two are american puppets, none have been strong enough to challenge america and has just been a follower. If india becomes a american ally which track would you think she will follow

Many people, like you said see a american and indain alliance as natural and inevitable, but does not take into account what the indians want out of this relationship. The indians have already declared that they want to make the indian ocean the Indian ocean. Who ever has control of the indian ocean has control of the worlds oil. what is it 80% of the worlds oil is shipped though the indian ocean. Any nation that controls this can hold the whole world at risk. Right now its america and the western countries are in control with india playing a relatively small part only on her own shores.

Now with the coming of peak oil you see many different countries trying to form allanices in the middle east or central asia and create their own navy to protect their interest(china, india). You can see over the past few years how many times central asian countries have changed allanices. First under soviet control then american then russian and chinese. India also has a small air base in tajikistan which she uses to guard her interest in the area(which she calls anti-terriosim operations).

India and America will also come into grief over indias relations with iran. The new port they are planning/constructing is one example of this new found relationship. india wants oil and iran wants money. Oil($) makes peopel go crazy and india needs a lot of it to keep its economy running at a steadly pace of 6-8% GDP growth a year.

This is interesting about how taiwan and india navy go hand in hand againest america. But this scernario will only become reality if india, russia and china sign some sort of agreement. This is actually good for all parties together. The three countries mentioned dont want to see any american involement into Central asia and the first half of the centuray will be testing america . The main reason for the american interest in central asia, india or asia in general is china. They see china as a threat to americas long built relationship with oil. One decade ago no-one could predict that chian actually should a chance agaienst america or american influence in the middle east but over the past decade china has some extremely fast growth rates and now is expected to overtake america economicly in 2035-2050.

My opinion is that oil after 2050 will actually decline in importance after peak oil is reached(2050-2100). What really worries me is that if india actually sees china as more of a threat than the US. It would be very dangerous for china to let india slip into american influence before 2050 or before a supplement or replacement for oil is found or produced. If india and america find each other ever in the need of protection from a aggressive china then their combined navies could easily launch a blockage agaienst china and would wreak havoc on chinas long term prospects.

India economically will have a bigger effect on america than china ever will. Indian workers go for the white collar jobs which employies the majority of americans. All the americans are doing now is passing laws protecting industries which died out long ago. When americans find out that most of the higher paying jobs like doctors computer engineers etc. will be hiring indian workers at a fracion of the cost it will cause a lot of tension between india and america. Americans usally work on in jobs which pay high wages and short working hours with the rise of the indians their will be a flood of low paid english workers on the american market.

While i am not so sure about the ABM threat to indian ICBM but it would be in americas interest to make pakistan into a US base, if there ever was a US indian conflict. But i believe ICBM as more as a stick in which to prod people instead of actually to be used in a war

End Note

My end thought about a indian and american conflict is very likey depending on the situation of oil. Actually this whole issue is summed up on oil. How can the whole world be controlled by this black substance which wouldn't be worth jack if we didn't have cars.

If Indias economy ever enters the point where if is economically threating to america then america will not see it as a ally in the crusade againest china but another enemy which cant be on the smae planet as america. that is the view most american hawks try to press on to congress about china


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