Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

ansy1968 said:

You're So right bro, people don't understand that most of Global South are deleveraging against the US not China, even her most ardent vassal aside from the 5 eyes are doing so. It is a Pacific century and we Asian fully embrace it and why let an interlopers spoiled our ascendance.

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well 4 of the 5 eyes. NZ under the current Govt is walking a tight rope leaning toward China, keenly aware of the benefits of it's trade with China yet wary of backlash from the other 4. having been bullied by the US in the past over the no Nuclear stance that effectively banned the USN from visiting. Sky News in Australia have a slow burning smear campaign against the current NZ govt.

I think the global south's reaction to the call for sanctions against Russia is a good indication of how they are distancing themselves from the US 'rules based order paradigm'.

Temstar said:

I suspect three of the five eyes will eventually jump ship, in the order: New Zealand -> Australia -> UK.

The New Zealand thing is already fairly well known, Ardern has been keeping a low profile and doing the fence sitting thing, she didn't even make much noise in regards to pacific island issues like Solomon Islands. The new Labor government in Australia is showing signs they may consider to take a similar posture and for UK, under Liz's leadership it may not be United soon. The constitute parts wouldn't have much of a choice.

It's really just the US and Canada which is too geographically close to US that will go down with the ship.

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For Australia to leave the US alliance it would depend on the election cycle.
Australia Politics are not a simple case of left and right. There are plenty of left voters that are right wing workers (labor) party supporters
So there are plenty of left leaning voters that would change sides if Australia didn't stand up for it's US mates.

Labor Party (nominally left) has a right wing and a left wing faction
Liberal Party (nominally right) has a left wing and right wing faction

Labor right is somewhere right of liberal left

All four factions hate each other


Along as Rupert Murdoch is still alive, ultimately it would probably come down to what his media empire pushs. The only chance to over turn Murcdoch would be if the next election was 3 years away.

jvodan said:

Along as Rupert Murdoch is still alive, ultimately it would probably come down to what his media empire pushs. The only chance to over turn Murcdoch would be if the next election was 3 years away.

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Why would the only chance to overturn Murdoch be if the next election was 3 years away? China and the gang should put some fear in that Sinophobic old man.

Temstar said:

I suspect three of the five eyes will eventually jump ship, in the order: New Zealand -> Australia -> UK.

The New Zealand thing is already fairly well known, Ardern has been keeping a low profile and doing the fence sitting thing, she didn't even make much noise in regards to pacific island issues like Solomon Islands. The new Labor government in Australia is showing signs they may consider to take a similar posture and for UK, under Liz's leadership it may not be United soon. The constitute parts wouldn't have much of a choice.

It's really just the US and Canada which is too geographically close to US that will go down with the ship.

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Eventually we may get a Democratic Republic of Australia with a Chinese Australian SecGen of a fully proletarian Labour Party of Australia, People's Republic of New Zealand with a Chinese Zealander SecGen of a fully proletarian Labour Party of New Zealand, and maybe even a Socialist Republic of Britain with a Chinese British SecGen of a fully proletarian Labour Party of Britain.

FairAndUnbiased said:

Eventually we may get a Democratic Republic of Australia with a Chinese Australian SecGen of a fully proletarian Labour Party of Australia, People's Republic of New Zealand with a Chinese Zealander SecGen of a fully proletarian Labour Party of New Zealand, and maybe even a Socialist Republic of Britain with a Chinese British SecGen of a fully proletarian Labour Party of Britain.

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However I would still prefer South Pacific Territories, province of China, and Southeast Pacific Islands, province of China, both governed by patriots weilding the power of the NSL

coolgod said:

Why would the only chance to overturn Murdoch be if the next election was 3 years away? China and the gang should put some fear in that Sinophobic old man.

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Because Politicians are cowards, they feel empowered for the first year, with a belief they have a mandate. By the end of the first year the press has already brow beaten them over any good ideas that may upset the status quo, confusing the media for public opinion the politicians tend to become timid the closer they get to the election.

stannislas said:

US + EU + Japan

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Japan's economy is shrinking fast and the EU is stagnating. Give it five years and Europe will finally emerge out of its many crises and find itself to be less than 10% of the world economy. Only the US matters, but that trade relationship is degrading all by itself.

Taiwan is not ready?

Straight from the horse's mouth?

Temstar said:

I suspect three of the five eyes will eventually jump ship, in the order: New Zealand -> Australia -> UK.

The New Zealand thing is already fairly well known, Ardern has been keeping a low profile and doing the fence sitting thing, she didn't even make much noise in regards to pacific island issues like Solomon Islands. The new Labor government in Australia is showing signs they may consider to take a similar posture and for UK, under Liz's leadership it may not be United soon. The constitute parts wouldn't have much of a choice.

It's really just the US and Canada which is too geographically close to US that will go down with the ship.

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I doubt all three will leave. Of those only New Zealand will quit, and even they are dragging their feet about it.

Demographics plays a significant role in each of their foreign policy. New Zealand has the highest percentage indigenous/non European population, and Maori have no fraternal relations with England or America. They certainly don't have any emnity to China. So as time goes on it becomes harder and harder for the New Zealand government to push the neo-colonial policy.

I'd give Canada an outside chance of leaving. Mainly because of the Francophone seperatist element. But even they seem to be fully on board when it comes to China.

supercat said:

Taiwan is not ready?

Straight from the horse's mouth?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575136334670311425

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6 bullets lol, that's some enemy at the gates type of shit.

And some people still claim China should not go for a quick attack and put boots on the ground within the first week. Most rebel soldiers are apparently not even briefed on what the government forces look like or what they can expect in a fight... Probably, 1 of the least trained LDPR fighter is worth 5 ROC fighters.

Lots of probing over a wide area followed by a lightning speed attack on wherever the rebels can't cover due to lacking intel, in a similar vein to Ukraine's Eastern push in the current war, but utilizing cutting edge equipment rather than technicals on trucks, backed by as much air/drone/artillery as possible, I don't see a 180k man strong rebel army holding for even days, unless US can get huge amount of troops on the ground to directly carry them in every engagement.

Delaying just increases chances of an US invasion.