Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

mossen said:

All in all, I think they have largely played their hand right. The only criticism I have is that the idiots at the ministry of foreign affairs should haven't lost their marbles with insane rhetoric. Xi needs to put a dampener on them.

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Sun Tzu: "If it's to your advantage, make a move forward; if not, stay where you are."

mossen said:

There's a lot of personal attacks in this thread, so I will try to be as objective and brief as I can.

• It's pretty clear that this is a demonstration of China's intentions in the event of an invasion
• It won't be an amphibious assault on day 1. There will be a blockade and then massive artillery fire
• The US probably doesn't have any counter to this even today
• So the only real question is who will bear the highest economic cost.
• Right now CCP judges that they have more to lose (rightfully IMO) so they choose to wait.

All in all, I think they have largely played their hand right. The only criticism I have is that the idiots at the ministry of foreign affairs should haven't lost their marbles with insane rhetoric. Xi needs to put a dampener on them.

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I actually think that Xi played along with it as a political gamble. If Pelosi cancels his position would look very strong, boy did it backfire though.

jwnz said:

Effect of the air blockade.
View attachment 94855

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Not blockade. Special air traffic management operation.

if russia used 2000 precision stand off missiles to mothball ukraine logistic, how many missiles can china use to submit taiwan? 10000? 20000?

siegecrossbow said:

I actually think that Xi played along with it as a political gamble. If Pelosi cancels his position would look very strong, boy did it backfire though.

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I have a feeling that Xi overestimated Biden's control over his own party and government. Biden, as the Head of State and Commander in Chief of the US, should have had ways to dissuade Pelosi from visiting. At least that would be Xi's assumption. Hence the call on the day before Pelosi left for Singapore.

As much as it is a slap in the face for Xi, I think it's an even bigger slap on the face for Biden, Blinken, Sullivan et al. The US side can't even form a coherent foreign policy, let along grand strategy for the next 5 to 10 years.

"Soft-power" is a delayed indicator not a leading indicator.

Currently (2020-) we are surely living the Peak of the AngloEmpire 2.0, West Empire or Roman-Biblical Empire

Queen Isabella of Castile, Nero and Caligula, the high priest Ananus the elder, Tiglath-Pileser III and ThutMoses III to name a few would feel at Home and would smile when watching this old and worn out Mediterranean movie.

So far we have seen:

(1) The Wall Street Wars (1846- and it is difficult to close with a figure as this story intersects with the history of the British Empire and the last "End of the world": 1914-1949)

(2) The Adolf II War, where Adolf left off his war against communism Washington picked up (1945/47-1991)

(3) Ziocon Wars (1991-2021)

(4) (2022-2049)

With all of this convoluted rambling I want to say that in my humble (haha) opinion, the western empire has 30 years left at the top.

Anyone has a CMANO scenario editor file of this live drill that I can watch or recreate /reenact on my gaming pc?

Too bad matrixgames only sells the pro version of CMANO to gov organizations not steam gamers dont get to do the hypersonic simulations thus no DF-17

KJ-200 announced its identity before crossing the median line.

Suetham said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1555184919105650692

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This is Taiwan navy drill.