Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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Biscuits said:
Where do you get the idea that this is true?

If Taipei wants to claim independence they can do so now, or in a couple of hours when the first government ships arrive in their forbidden entry zones.

They could have done it when China flew planes over them, just by shooting them and then declaring independence. The closest they came was shooting flares at a drone.

Clearly, Taiwan greatly fears restarting open civil war, because they know the power balance is horrible. Under such conditions, China can claim a few cities/islands and then deescalate, especially since people on Kinmen are more pro government than pro separatist/rebel.

Thanks to US loudly counting chickens before they hatch and running several victory laps before the race even starts, world opinion will now look on a 3 day blockade and PLA incursion on ground rebels have controlled for 50 years as "a weak response", is it such a stretch then that absorbing a few island then would be considered "a normal response"?

It's too late for US to walk back all the hype they've made about China's supposed weakness. If Kinmen and Penghu falls, all US can say is, "They were not worth as much as Pelosi visiting"
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Liberating Kinmen, Matsu, Taiping, Penghu: "this is a weak paper tiger's cope, they can't even touch Taiwan"
 
O

ougoah

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Abominable said:
If that was the case it would make no sense to object to Pelosi's visit. Just accept it as an unofficial visit and carry on as normal.

Issuing threats beforehand and then doing nothing except token gestures afterwards is the worst of both worlds.
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You missed the point. Before the visit no one knew for sure. China hoped it would be enough to get the visit cancelled.
 
ZeEa5KPul

ZeEa5KPul

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Abominable said:
Taking a few islands is probably the worst decision than can be made. All it will do is signal that China is no longer interested in peaceful reunification yet leaves the bigger problem untouched.

It is like Russia and Crimea, except in that case Russia needed time to modernise and prepare for sanctions. China does not have that problem.
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I oppose taking those islands for a much simpler reason: Pelosi's visit will hardly be the last of its kind. There will be other provocations as the decade grinds on and China should leave something in the bank to respond to them.
 
Suetham

Suetham

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ACuriousPLAFan said:
SPAR20 has taken off from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia some hours ago, seemingly following the same path as SPAR19 did yesterday night. No idea who or what is onboard.
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Must be the rest of Pelosi's delegation.
ougoah said:
You missed the point. Before the visit no one knew for sure. China hoped it would be enough to get the visit cancelled.
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It remains an unofficial visit, no matter how much deny it.
 
A

ACuriousPLAFan

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PhSt said:
What are the chances that Taiwanese nationals will evacuate to the PH in the event of mainland liberation of Taiwan?
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If there are obvious warning signs with enough time given, anyone on the island certainly can book any flights out of Taiwan, not just to the Philippines.

Once the PLA declares a no fly zone over Taiwan, the only way left to get off the island is by ship or boat.
 
baykalov

baykalov

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Broccoli said:
You "forgot" that Russian leadership both civilian and military have many times announced that they don't see Ukraine as independent nation and want to take it over fully and many have demanded return of old imperial borders. Clearly an imperilaist but this is all very much offtopic.
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Ukraine is a black hole after the bloody coup in 2014. I have relatives in Odessa, Bessarabian Bulgarians, who are disgusted by the Ukrainian regime after the coup and are waiting for the Russians as liberators. Bessarabian Bulgarians in Ukraine number about 200,000 and live mainly in Odessa and southern Ukraine. Bessarabian Bulgarians have also been terrorized by the Ukrainian regime for the past 8 years.

The event that opened the process of turning Ukraine into a Nazi state was the coup d'état of February 21, 2014, which at one point destroyed the Constitution, canceled all legal norms of the current Constitution. Ukraine has become a country of lawlessness, a country where the rights of all nations living in Ukraine began to be violated, and above all, the rights of the Russian-speaking population began to be violated.

And how many politicians were killed in Ukraine, how many journalists were killed in Ukraine in the last 8 years, accused of sympathizing with Russia - they cannot be counted.

Russia has no intention of occupying all of Ukraine, only the territories with a pro-Russian population.

nvr.jpg
 
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