Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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delta115

delta115

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GZDRefugee said:
What would be the definition of invade here? Stationing troops on Taiwan? Port call in Taiwan with a warship? The US knows that if they shoot first, they will be seen as the aggressors. The goal would be to bait China into shooting first. Heck, they can even engineer a false flag as they have done before.
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If that happen then we will see how 'One China policy' really mean to those nation that said they uphold it.

It's doesn't need to shoot first to be seen as agressor. Otherwise, may be China should send PLAGF and PLAN to station in Manhattan as a respond to US.

GZDRefugee said:
Take semiconductors for example. They are essentially Taipei's only bargaining chip (pun totally intended) with the US. If Taiwan was no longer the sole supplier of cutting edge chips, would the US really go to such lengths to start shit? If China completely takes over the semiconductor industry, what would be the point of Taiwan anymore?
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Unsinkable carrier? Missile base to make sure they have leverage against China in conflict?

That island is their key to contained China power projection in Asia.
 
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antiterror13

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GZDRefugee said:
I actually agree with this and think this should be the way to go in the short term future. China's greatest weapon is her economy. There are a lot of levers that can be pulled to put pressure on Taiwan and the US.

Take semiconductors for example. They are essentially Taipei's only bargaining chip (pun totally intended) with the US. If Taiwan was no longer the sole supplier of cutting edge chips, would the US really go to such lengths to start shit? If China completely takes over the semiconductor industry, what would be the point of Taiwan anymore?
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Taiwan is geographically very strategic island, if China got Taiwan, it is very much game over for the US in Pacific or at least in West Pacific
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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SunlitZelkova said:
I don't think this even need be construed as a negative thing. Japan had it's chance to become a great power and it failed spectacularly- destroyed itself in an expansionist war and then decimated its economy by giving into American demands. There is no chance of it ever returning to the position it once held.

If the Japanese people are relatively prosperous, either maintaining the current (well, pre-pandemic) level or returning to it after a crisis, there is nothing really negative about being economically reliant on China. This would really only be punishment for the fascists and other right wingers themselves, with their imperialistic and racist ambitions. In fact, even today, should push come to shove I'm sure the average Japanese young person (who will be the majority soon enough) wouldn't care about relying on another country if it meant maintaining their standard of living.
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yep, Japanese have only themselves to blame for allowing fascists to come to and stay in power since 1930's. Once this mistake has been corrected via denazification of the regime, I am sure the Japanese people will make the correct historical choices.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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Minm said:
Of course older Japanese are going to be more proud of their country and won't see China as an equal. In the time in which they grew up, Japan was at its peak with an economy almost as large as the EU or the US and much higher productivity. Abe said that Japan was a "first-tier" country and it truly was in the 1980s. The younger generation is growing up in a time of Japanese decline. They know it's absurd to think of Japan as an equal to China, so they won't be offended by the fact that the Japanese economy and military is so much smaller than China's.
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South Korea has just overtaken Japan in GDP per capita. Must sting bad for them.
 
GZDRefugee

GZDRefugee

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delta115 said:
If that happen then we will see how 'One China policy' really mean to those nation that said they uphold it.

It's doesn't need to shoot first to be seen as agressor. Otherwise, may be China should send PLAGF and PLAN to station in Manhattan as a respond to US.
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The US can say whatever the hell they like, however their actions reveal their true intentions.

I disagree with the notion that you don't necessarily have to shoot to be the aggressor. The US has portrayed China as weak for decades now; nonviolent action has been the norm for China. It would be impossible to convince even their sycophants that the US shooting first was in response to aggression.
 
GZDRefugee

GZDRefugee

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antiterror13 said:
Taiwan is geographically very strategic island, if China got Taiwan, it is very much game over for the US in Pacific or at least in West Pacific
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Just a thought experiment. Suppose China is now the largest and cheapest source of high tech chips. All that good stuff that goes into your fancy jet fighters and other toys. Fighting a war with China would mean all your gear running out of parts and inability to produce more. You know, general economic malaise. Would you concede the first island chain to maintain your supply lines?
 
phrozenflame

phrozenflame

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GZDRefugee said:
Relying on your opponents to be incompetent is a poor strategy.

The vast majority of Americans will believe whatever their party wants them to believe. Unfortunately, kneecapping China's ascension is bipartisan. If war is what the government wants, the public will be whipped into a bloodthirsty mob.
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Will? They already are. It's a done deal.
 
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