Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

It's ridiculous that they are making a fuss about PLAAF jets crossing the median line when USN ships from the other side of the Pacific can sail through the straits.

Going forwards this should be normalised and the only thing they should be complaining about is an actual airspace violation.

Barefoot said:

I'm not suggesting anyone do anything.

I just think it would be hugely humiliating for China if the US sails warships down the straight in a few days time.

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The US postponed their ICBM test because of the drills, why do you think they dare sail through the Strait in a couple day's time?

Patchwork_Chimera said:

Haha that's exactly what I was wondering right after posting that. It seems that they meant those were for the entire day's period, which is notably less impressive than the post's first impression suggests. Really annoying way of that person to word it.

I too am interested in what kind of ops they're undertaking elsewhere, as I'd imagine even in ETC they're generating ~50-75% as many sorties as the ADIZ incursions, which makes the numbers more impressive for sure. With that said though, I still wish they'd go full send and surge as many airframes as possible so that I can see what their "maximum cadence" sortie volume looks like, rather than the distinctly peacetime tempo they're flying at the moment.

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Is there any reason to do that when PLA is probably thinking that there might be a chance this erupts into a real war and that they need to be able to not push things so that they can still surge if called for.

Patchwork_Chimera said:

Haha that's exactly what I was wondering right after posting that. It seems that they meant those were for the entire day's period, which is notably less impressive than the post's first impression suggests. Really annoying way of that person to word it.

I too am interested in what kind of ops they're undertaking elsewhere, as I'd imagine even in ETC they're generating ~50-75% as many sorties as the ADIZ incursions, which makes the numbers more impressive for sure. With that said though, I still wish they'd go full send and surge as many airframes as possible so that I can see what their "maximum cadence" sortie volume looks like, rather than the distinctly peacetime tempo they're flying at the moment.

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I have a feeling that's probably exactly why they're avoiding showing their hand too much lol, and likely that's why some of their sorties are older J-11As or Su-30s.

I observe that the scale of operations they're doing doesn't actually seem that intensive, but rather it is the location/positioning of the sorties that are important.


I think the next, larger dial upwards on the signaling ladder would be doing theater level sorties in the same locations they're doing now.... and perhaps the final dial upwards after that would be ETC being reinforced by elements from other TCs doing "reinforced theater level sorties" in the same locations they're doing now (which may be the final dial before actual military operations in anger)

Patchwork_Chimera said:

Haha that's exactly what I was wondering right after posting that. It seems that they meant those were for the entire day's period, which is notably less impressive than the post's first impression suggests. Really annoying way of that person to word it.

I too am interested in what kind of ops they're undertaking elsewhere, as I'd imagine even in ETC they're generating ~50-75% as many sorties as the ADIZ incursions, which makes the numbers more impressive for sure. With that said though, I still wish they'd go full send and surge as many airframes as possible so that I can see what their "maximum cadence" sortie volume looks like, rather than the distinctly peacetime tempo they're flying at the moment.

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Don't be greedy; there'll be other US provocations, I'm sure.

Barefoot said:

I'm not suggesting anyone do anything.

I just think it would be hugely humiliating for China if the US sails warships down the straight in a few days time.

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What a silly suggestion. Do you expect China to sink USN ships for sailing through the Strait? Everybody knows any ship that sails there stays afloat by China's mercy.

I hope that the day the balloon goes up the US sails half its carriers through the Strait at the same time. Put them right in the killbox.

Blitzo said:

I think the next, larger dial upwards on the signaling ladder would be doing theater level sorties in the same locations they're doing now.... and perhaps the final dial upwards after that would be ETC being reinforced by elements from other TCs doing "reinforced theater level sorties" in the same locations they're doing now (which may be the final dial before actual military operations in anger)

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There are plenty more dials both performatively and in the locations of the exercises.

Has this been posted yet?


Neocons aren’t happy that their salami slicing is being met with salami slicing from the other side.

Patchwork_Chimera said:

Haha that's exactly what I was wondering right after posting that. It seems that they meant those were for the entire day's period, which is notably less impressive than the post's first impression suggests. Really annoying way of that person to word it.

I too am interested in what kind of ops they're undertaking elsewhere, as I'd imagine even in ETC they're generating ~50-75% as many sorties as the ADIZ incursions, which makes the numbers more impressive for sure. With that said though, I still wish they'd go full send and surge as many airframes as possible so that I can see what their "maximum cadence" sortie volume looks like, rather than the distinctly peacetime tempo they're flying at the moment.

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Wouldn't you like to know, weather boy?

Barefoot said:

Surely the humiliation will be all the greater, now.

China conducts this grand show of force, meant, in part, to put the past humiliation behind them, and then immediately after up pops the US sailing past down the straight as if nothing has changed.

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The show is for Taiwan, no one else, not even the US. The rest of the world can laugh all they went but the CPC and Chinese people don't care really. The goal is to reunify, not to win a popularity contest.

Let's keep the discussion as directly relevant to the thread as possible.

The nature of the event means that there will be lots of tangential discussions, but let's try to keep it directly contained to the topic at hand the best we can.

Random hot takes on Chinese politics, or the possibility of nuclear expansion, are all at best tangentially related, but not suitable for here.