Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

escobar said:

Another theory: Maybe Chinese government want Pelosi to go to Taiwan because objectively speaking, CN gov incentivized this outcome

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This is pretty much like diarrhea to the face. I doubt it.

xlitter said:

Chinese people are very, very disappointed! The Party Central Committee can naturally see that now the atmosphere of China's being humiliated again has spread across the country, and the people's will has been mobilized. Without the Pelosi incident, the people's will to liberate Taiwan would not be so unified. Crisis is both danger and opportunity. Opportunities will not be missed. We will see the result in the next few days!

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What is surprising is that Chinese government couldn't even be bothered with plane interdiction to at least show some mettle that the sort of propaganda tactic and salami slicing conducted by the U.S. won't be tolerated and there's a limit to their provocative actions.

FairAndUnbiased said:

That's insufficient. They already know about the SRBMs and IRBMs.

It demonstrates that China is willing and able to shoot down flying objects in Taiwan. Being a warmonger is better than being weak. Too bad it has come to those choices but it is what it is thanks to prior decisions.

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How about the other smaller nations? If China becomes a warmonger, many smaller nations would be much more wary of even working with China. Why do you think China spends so much time working with those smaller nations and cultivating win win ties with them? It’s because not being a warmonger reassures those nations that China won’t abuse its power.

Bellum_Romanum said:

What is surprising is that Chinese government couldn't even be bothered with plane interdiction to at least show some mettle that the sort of propaganda tactic and salami slicing conducted by the U.S. won't be tolerated and there's a limit to their provocative actions.

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What happens when her plane gets intercepted and lands in Taiwan anyway? If you're not going to shoot, don't bother.

Since the mid 1990s China has clearly enhanced its ability to respond to a TW situation. Just look at these live fire charts. Currently they could take the island but there's a massive modernization campaign underway over the next decade + lessons to be applied from the Ukraine war. With these exercises China has changed the status quo in a way that is seriously damaging to TW longterm.

220 pages and people still dreaming of a military solution for a political crisis. China's will never be able to assert political power that way.

FairAndUnbiased said:

It demonstrates capability which is now being called into question. Resolve is already gone. At least intercepting a SLBM or something shows capability. Flying a target drone into Taiwan then shooting it down also shows that they are not a sovereign nation.

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It really is confusing and confounding to say the least, but I guess this is Xi's way of winning the hearts and minds of the Taiwanese.

The mainland should just endure and bend a little more for the west because there's more visit coming on the way, another round of sanctions. But hey, we just have to wait and see. For now, the Chinese people would just have to endure and be patient.

sequ said:

Who says the PLA is going to use every square mile of those exercise areas to conduct exercises?

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I think some of those areas might just be splash zones for long range live ordnance. It doesn't mean PLA would actually send military assets into those areas. Although, I hope they do so the central government could salvage some face out of it.

weig2000 said:

China has never said anything close to shooting down Pelosi's plane or even intercepting her plane. But clearly, it has managed the PR extremely poorly, raising the expectation of many that some direct face-off between Chinese and US militaries is likely.

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You have Hu Xijin and our Seige to blame for this. Both of them are responsible for "raising the expectation of many" here and there.

LawLeadsToPeace said:

Observer status are voted upon by the General Assembly via a resolution. So China can’t veto it. And yes, the numerical advantage is there presently. However we know the US has many ways to “convince” those countries to support their cause.

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So it's pretty much not set to happen.

LawLeadsToPeace said:

I agree with no 2, but the timing is also determined by the US as well. I also partially agree with no 1. Yes the West will basically commit suicide if they do that, but an attack from China upon a UN member will break down the trust between China and other smaller nations since it shows China doesn’t adhere to international law.

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So basically there's no problem. China's willing to wait for a better deal on Taiwan, but will take whatever deal's on the table if we have to. Political consequences are garbage. Every nation knows the special meaning Taiwan holds for China; nobody will care if they were UN observer or WHO observer or anything. These nations all follow the One China Policy and they know this is where China will never compromise. If they don't, they're too stupid to be important anyway. The ones who pretend to care about law are the ones that would have sided with the US/West anyway, just looking for any reason.

LawLeadsToPeace said:

The economic damage will most likely not occur, but the political damage will be extremely high.

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If China takes the ROC and then doesn't even suffer significant economic damage, that shows the world where power lies and everyone follows power.